week1 nfl circa million dollar contest

A group of friends discusses their picks for the Million Dollar Challenge and their strategies for making successful predictions. They reflect on their performance last year and their goal of becoming millionaires. They review upcoming games and share their thoughts on each team. They have differing opinions on certain games and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each team. They also mention the importance of being sharp in making picks and not relying on luck. I need a couple more of these shots, let's go. Let's do this. Alright. I'm going to go ahead and start the song and open the next thing. I love them. Yeah. Yeah, let's start opening the song right now. Let's fucking change that one right now. Week 2, that's going to be something different. Okay, cool man. Well shit man, this is Alex. I got Paul, I got Jonathan in here. We're here to talk. Week 1, we did pretty good last year as far as our picks for the Million Dollar Challenge. We figured, you know what, let's record ourselves, see where we went wrong. Maybe we can turn this into a podcast. Maybe, you know, people actually listen to our dumb asses and see how we do our picks. We ain't just, you know, just picking them and being random about it. There's certain strategies that we use and it was definitely successful last year. We did pretty good. I would say we're in the top 20% maybe. Top 20? Yeah. 209th place. 209th place? Yeah. Fuck, 209th place. And there was 5,000 contestants. And you know what, we didn't even really put it to the max. So, we're going to try and put it to the max this year. Try a little harder, do a little bit more research and get better results. The goal is to be a millionaire and that's the top prize and, you know, anything else is just icing on the cake. So, that being said, Paul, let's go through these games real quick, one by one. If you ain't feeling it, I ain't feeling it, we're just going to move on, man. I ain't trying to waste nobody's time, you know what I mean? What's the first one on board? Let's see. So, we don't want to talk about the Thursday night game because it's already off? I mean, we could talk about it, but I mean, it's all hindsight. I could tell you that we were right, but will you believe us? I mean, I guess if we could... I got an open teaser, that's all I got, I guess. Well, what would you like to talk about on Thursday? Because, I mean, we all watched the game, you know, the Lions 21-0-1. Well, I think, yeah, I was a little lazy. Once the Chelsea news came out, it should have been at least a hundred, but... I could have just read this game straight. I mean, I just put it in the teaser, so... I was just scared, man, yeah, exactly. Jonathan, you watched the game? Yeah, I watched it yesterday. Do you think it was a fluke, or do you think that Detroit's got something this year? I don't think it's a fluke. I've seen Kansas City, three defensive fouls, Kelsey, and... Yeah, because that number two was trash. That boy Tony was not catching a fucking code out there yesterday. So, I mean, we'll see. We'll see how it goes. I mean, other than that, I think that the Chiefs always start off slow. I think that they had their best defensive player out, and their best offensive player not named, Patrick Mahomes, out. So, I think they'll be fine. I think it's just one of those first games that, you know, they'll get better. The receivers are going to get better. I think it's just about timing, and they weren't ready for Detroit, and Detroit was playing like it was their Super Bowl. You know, who expects Detroit to be anywhere? So, big ups to Detroit for winning that game, and I'm glad that we got that teaser that I posted on Facebook, and we're looking to get the other ones filled out and make some money. So, that being said, what was the first game? Yeah, Carolina, Atlanta, line foul games, minus three, a half. Okay, me, personally, I don't want no part of it. These two teams seem, like, identical. They both got trash quarterbacks. They both got a decent running game. They both got new head coaches, same division. This is like a cornflip to me. I mean, unless you really know them two teams, like, really good, and their personnel, I don't see how this is even a play. This is definitely going to be a pass for me, and I don't know how you feel. Yeah. Yeah, I guess as far as a contest, this is a pass. Yeah, let's move on to that because the next one, I don't like the Browns, but, well, what I'm trying to do is, there's like certain, I guess, I'm trying to find, like, certain teams that I can read pretty well. So, I feel like the Bengals, for sure, I have a good read on, and with the Browns, I feel like maybe it's just, like, there could be little mistakes I can correct and make with them, and I think I have them figured out. Well, I don't think so. That's the biggest question right there. Love it. That's why we bring squares on every week. So, today, Jonathan is our square of the week. When I feel like he's going to pick a team that we would normally not pick because then we ask for his opinion to see if we're right. And so, so far, we're one for one. So, you went for Cincinnati. You want to elaborate why you like Cincinnati minus two and a half? I was just thinking that just because, I mean, it's open season, they're hungry, they lost last season, and I just think Jamal Chase, Joe Nixon, and the rest of the team don't show up. Yeah, you're taking a logical pick with not having to do any kind of research, but, like, that's why we like to pick against the squares. You'll hear us talk about squares. You'll hear about sharps. Anybody who gambles kind of knows the difference, what we're talking about. But, you know, we like to try to be more on the sharp side because that's mathematically, in the long term, we're going to do better. So, that's why we call you the square. But, all right, bro, we all were squares at one point, and hopefully, you know, we can get out of that square moment, but what's the next one we got? Jaguars to Colts. Jaguars is fair by four and a half. I can't read. I don't have a good read on this one. So, without going into detail of all the research I've done, I initially like Indianapolis. I just feel it's just a good spot for them. Jacksonville's O-line is not that great. And the surprise factor, like what Collin would say about Richardson, it's like they didn't really play him. They're going to come out with all these formations. It's all new. It's new coach. Jacksonville has a disadvantage because there's no tape really on Richardson and them, and on the other end, you know, Indianapolis has all the tape on Jacksonville. So, initially, I like Indianapolis, but I just think that Richardson's probably just a trash-ass quarterback, to be honest, and I don't think that he's going to perform week one. I mean, the chances of that, you know, are rare. I mean, when was the last time somebody kind of did something like that, RG3, when you didn't think much of him and he came out and just balled out and was like a freaking MVP. So, who knows, man. Maybe he will be. Maybe he will be. I mean, the head coach is the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator last year, and look what he did with Hurts. So, now back to why I'm picking Jacksonville. Again, like I said, you don't know what you're getting with them. Same reason why I like them, the same reason I'm saying, you know what, they can just be totally trash. It's four and a half. What is the line? Three and a half, four and a half? Four and a half. Four and a half. I would just leave Jacksonville. Not necessarily would take them, but I know they're awesome. They're going to score some points. So, if they can hold Indianapolis, then I think they'd be able to cover. But right now it's kind of just a leave. I'm not really interested in the contest quite yet. What's the next one? The Buccaneers and Vikings. I almost wanted to take the Buccaneers here. You almost, but you didn't. This is a clear pass. You already know how we feel about the Vikings. The Vikings was one of those teams last year that just kept – we couldn't get that one right. So, I don't want to start the year bad picking the Vikings or not picking the Vikings and they bite us in the ass. That's just going to leave a bad taste in my mouth. I know you feel the same way on that one. Plus, Pepper Bay, fuck, fuck. We don't know what you're getting with them either. You don't know if they're good. Who? Baker May. May ain't even hurt, though. He wasn't going to play this week? He was going to play before. No. He was going to play before. Even if so, I'm not going to watch. How about that? If he plays, I'm not even watching. So, I mean – and so, we'll go ahead and pass on that one. What you got? Titans plus three, the Saints. This is – yeah, minus three. This one's right on the number. Oh, yeah. I don't – yeah, that one's going to pass for sure for me. Pass? Yeah. No, what you think? Yeah, yeah, there you go. How come? Yeah, I need some more energy, Paul. You need to set up and then get this L you're about to take on the pass. I think it's going to be favored, but, I mean, the New Orleans Saints, they got Derek Carr. He's home. He's back. I mean, they got a decent tight end. They got a good defense. I'd say it's a number two, number three defense this year, easy. I think it's going to be an interesting game. Well, yeah. Okay. The 49ers, we got the Steelers. 49ers, Steelers. I like Steelers. It's plus two and a half. This one, yeah, this is like the – I think this is a sharp play to weak. All the sharps are on this one. So, I mean, it's a regression for the 49ers. They're bad week one. The Steelers are good as home underdogs. And Taupin is the underdog coach. So, yeah, I feel like this one's a really good pick. I like the Steelers. It's plus two and a half. And let's piggyback on Paul right here. You need to stop, man. You need to stop. No, I'm too fucked up. You're fucked up, man? I can't, man. This shit hits me too hard now, man. What, the weave? I don't know. I need like a water or something, man. You need a water? Is it hot in here? It's a little hot. Nah, man. I'm just hanging out, man. Nah, you just hide out in there. It's all good, brother. Here we go. We're going to start this bitch. Nah, nah, this is Ojo's local podcast. This is Ojo's multi-podcast, okay? We're going to have a little bit of fun. I want to start out with saying that the Steelers are my best pick of the week. They're my best bet. You hear it first. I'm telling you right now, plus two and a half. I'm willing to take that risk on the Steelers because San Francisco, they look like a championship-bound team. I get that. Purdy was looking good last year, but Purdy was playing one of the worst teams down the stretch last year. I mean, if I can pull up my phone, I don't know where it's at. Let me give you the offenses that they were playing. So, yeah, San Francisco looked like a Super Bowl team, but they weren't playing nobody, and Purdy wasn't playing. His opposition quarterbacks weren't shit. So, that's my knock on San Francisco. That's why I'm fading San Francisco. Why I'm going for the Steelers and why I love the Steelers is, one, Tomlin as an underdog is one of the best coaches on there as an underdog. Two, the way they've been looking in preseason, damn, they've been looking good. Pickett to Pickens is marked as a trademark. That's going to be a shirt. And then what I also like is T.J. Watt is healthy. Their defense is stud. Their defense can match with San Francisco, I think. Now, who's got the better offense? It's clearly going to be Pittsburgh. And you're getting points at home. Let me just put this in perspective. I think these are pretty close teams. Let's just say you want to give the edge to San Francisco. Being minus two and a half at Pittsburgh, that means if this line was in San Francisco, it would be San Francisco minus eight and a half. And that's how we look at it. You take three points from where it's two and a half. You make it five in a neutral. Then if it goes to San Francisco, you make it eight. So that's how they determine the spread when it comes to home field advantage. So it just doesn't make sense why they're underdogs at home. You could tease them up to eight and a half. That's another one. Yeah, exactly. And so I may not bet this. Money-wise, it's definitely going to be in the contest. But what I'm going to do is I'm going to tease it up to eight and a half. I already have the lines that I got at ten yesterday. So we're going to go ahead and catch that in whenever it's Peters. So, yeah, plus two. I love them. To piggyback on Paul, what do you think, Square? I know you like San Francisco. No, I don't. No? No. Okay. I like the Peters. Okay. So maybe it's one of those teams. I think Athens-Peters is going to come up. What you got next, bro? Cardinals put seven at the Commanders. Okay. That's an easy one. Thank you. It's an easy one. Then I want to hear you. I want to see if I'm right. I think the Commanders are going to take that game for sure. Well, yeah. We all know that. But the line is seven. Are you thinking that they're going to cover the seven, too? Yeah. Yeah? Okay. So, Paul, you are absolutely right, Paul. Paul called this the square pick of the week. What we mean by that is even though we like to bet like a sharp, you can't have nothing but sharp picks every week. You've got to have some square picks because sometimes the squares win, too. You know? And as long as you can identify each pick, whether it's square or – see, the first thing you want to do is decide which one is which. Which one is the square side? Which one is the sharp side? If you can identify that, it will be able to help you a little bit on deciding on what you want to pick. And that's kind of how we first go about when we check over our teams. We're like, okay, what's the square side? What's the sharp side? Okay, what side are we on? I was talking to Paul earlier. He said he likes this pick. It's a square pick. It's going to be probably on his pick. I don't know if I want to put it on my contest, but, I mean, if you want to elaborate why you like it, go ahead. Go ahead. Go on and rap one. Nah. It's, well, yeah, this Arizona team is fucking trash. This could be like a one-win team or some shit. I mean, they have no fucking quarterbacks. They have a new coach. Their roster is horrible. So if Tyra Murray is in the team, this team is fucking horrible. And I think the Commanders, I mean, they could be a little underrated. Who knows? I mean, they have a decent roster. If the quarterback you can play, I don't know, they could win just seven, eight games at least. I mean, so. Explain that. This is the game they're going to win. Explain that single-digit thing. I like when you said that. When you said, when you're talking about like them. Well, it's like the what? It's like the only other bigger spread is the Ravens at 10. Yeah, but you said something that I like, and I think is true, is that you said take advantage of the single-digit spread with Arizona. Probably be like this week and next week, and that's maybe it. Yeah, and then the line, they're going to realize, okay, Arizona, the tanking for the quarterback from USC, what's his name? Yeah. Dobbs? No. No. Caleb? Yeah. Martin? Yeah, Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams, there we go. And so, he's obviously going to be the next number one pick, and Arizona, they got nothing going on right now. They're trading away players, and, you know, Murray's not hurt. I mean, he's hurt. Obviously, he's not going to be there. They have no weapons on offense. Their defense is horrible as well. They're going for the number one pick. While you can get single-digit, minus seven, I think I like that one, too. And if you're smart enough, tease that. Tease that down to minus one or something. You know what I'm talking about? Packers plus one at the Bears. This one, I don't know, the thing I might like is really the under. I don't know how it would be otherwise, but I think you were on the Packers, right? I mean, I think they're the sharp side. So, this is the one I'm going to pick. This is going to be like the last game I decide. I don't come for reading this one. But if you want to argue the Packers, what do you think? Do you like Packers? No, I'm taking the Bears. You're taking the Bears? Why? I just don't believe in love. I don't think he got this. I don't believe in love. The Bears are the sharp side. This guy don't believe in love. The Packers, yeah, but they're the sharp side. I don't know about that. I mean, Packers, I'm not going to lie, but I think Chicago Bears, they have Justin Phillips' back. They have a decent running game. They got three-headed monster. And I just think they're going to just monster this game and just let everybody know nationwide Packers ain't shit. Packers ain't shit. Hey, I agree. Yo, I agree. Packers ain't shit. But I'm definitely going to go for Packers on this one. It's probably going to be one on my card. And at first I was like it's a pass. I don't like divisional players. I mean, divisional teams playing each other. But I don't like that one. It's like three, three-and-a-half. It's boring. I don't know. But I like that they're actually getting points. Packers are getting points because I think they're a better team. They got the better roster. I know there's question marks on love. There's question marks on Phil, too. Like all he was doing was running. They only won four games last year. I bet them a few times they cover, but they blow it at the end. One thing I know about Packers, LaFleur, they're a well coach. They got a good offensive line so they can protect love. I mean, look at Dak. Dak ain't the best quarterback, but when Dak came out, he had a good line. He had a good running game, Aaron Jones. He had a good offensive coach, LaFleur. So I think that they're not as bad. And their defense was actually really solid. They got some good secondary. They're a solid defense, too. So they're a better team. And their schedule is actually really favorable to them. So I think that they feel like they can make a run at least to the playoffs. So they have to beat the game teams like Chicago. All they got to do is win. All they got to do is win. Okay. So here's what I would say. So does it matter anything at all if, like, just, you know, Jordan loves replacing Aaron Rodgers? Like, they were like 8-9 last year. Exactly. Aaron Rodgers. So, like, how good do you think they're going to be? Good enough to beat the Bears. I ain't saying that. I ain't picking them to be my team. You're going to catch me with a love jersey. Fucking week one. All right. Well, hey. Well, yeah. I'm thinking, yeah. I mean, well, that's true. If I like it, too. I don't know. I ain't saying love ain't shit. You know what I mean? I don't take it that far. They're going to drop the quarterback. Yeah, yeah. Leave love alone. Yeah. But we got a lot of fun. All right. So this one, Raiders plus three and a half, the Broncos, this one's for sure on the fucking card. I got, yeah. I don't know. It was Fezzik's top play. He convinced once and for all. Fuck Fezzik. That shit. Fuck Fezzik. That motherfucker. Nah, you know what? Let me rant about Fezzik, man. He's like, when I first started doing this gambling, you know, you look and maybe follow a certain pro that you like, and Fezzik seems to be, he likes to be, he's like the Phil Hellmuth of fucking betting, is that he's a back-to-back champ, but in the fucking 80s or 90s, you know what I'm saying? He's got credentials, but he's a fucking whiny baby on Twitter, and he fucking, all he does is complain, and he thinks he's better than everybody. I love Fezzik. Don't get me wrong. He has some smarts. He knows how to bet. He's just not really putting the bet in. He's actually deferring, I mean, getting his bets from other people. I like him. I mean, and I'm not here to talk shit on this motherfucker and piss on the one he's down, but he just cost me like $1,500 on Saturday with his fucking college fix. Excuse me if I'm salty. I fucking paid like $100 for his stupid ass package, and that motherfucker cost me about a good $15, you know what I'm saying, large. So, hey, I love Fezzik when he fucking gives me my money back, but until then, man, I ain't fucking going off of Fezzik. Yeah, I mean, he's fucking 3-0 in Vegas anyway, so. Yeah, yeah, I actually still won in Vegas. It's just I did it without fucking Fezzik. How about that? So, do you want anything else, or do you want to move on to the next? I'm good. I mean, like I said, Green Bay's one of my best. Yeah. I'll be on one of the first. Dolphins, Chargers, plus three Dolphins. Do you have a sign on that one? I want to stay away from this one. If I had to choose, I'm going to go San Diego because I'm going to defer to Tyler Howard on that one. He's in L.A. He's got some sources. Hey, you know what? I'll go with him. Yeah, I mean, I think the Chargers could be, they could be, they could win the division this year. Pelkey, Kinson already lost, so. Eagles, Patriots, plus four. I like the Patriots plus four. I don't know. I just feel like I have a good read. I just feel like this is a Super Bowl hangover mostly. I don't know why more people just don't like this side, but yeah, now I probably get to take this one, but I'll see if I want to do any more research. All right, well, let me ask the audience. I disagree with the audience. I think I'm going with Philadelphia. This is probably not going to be on my card. Maybe we'll talk a little bit more and convince off the air and convince me otherwise. I just can't trust their offense. I don't know what they got to the table. I mean, Zeke, Zeke's their savior. I mean, they still got no receivers. I'm still not convinced with their quarterback play. They're hell yeah, they look like a top ten defense when they're playing teams without a quarterback. Now, when they're playing teams with a quarterback, they were like ranked maybe 20th. So, Belichick has always struggled with running mobile quarterbacks because you can only put your players in their positions to win, but when the quarterback is ad-libbing, now all bets are off on the table. So, this is one that I think it's just a bad matchup from New England. The only thing that I don't want to put Philly on my card is because of the spread. It's four, right, you said there's four in the contest. So, if this was in Philly, it would be four, neutral field seven. It would be minus ten at Philly. There's no way that I would take minus ten at Philly. I would take New England all day at that point. So, why not New England at plus four at home just because I don't trust their offense and I know Philly's at least going to score. The only thing that you can say bad about Philly because they were, I get the Super Bowl hangover and all that, but the only thing that you can say bad because they've only gotten better. They have one of the best drafts. They got the strongest defensive line. They just got two more studs on defensive line. So, their defensive line is stacked. It's good luck trying to, the quarterback trying to find open receivers. They don't even have good playmakers. So, that's one thing. They can score like seven points. The other thing is their offense, yeah, the offensive coordinator left, the defensive coordinator left, but the head coach, that's the one who, that's the big-headed monster. It's not the coordinators. You'll find out Indianapolis has the offensive coordinator. They ain't going to do shit. Arizona's got the defensive coordinator from Eagles. They ain't going to do shit. You don't realize it's the head coach is the one that's making all that happen in Philly. And I think they're going to be super goal-bound and probably going to get the number one seed. Cool, cool. All right, Rams five and a half, Seahawks minus five and a half. I mean, I don't, I can't read this. I mean, I want to like the Rams, but, you know, I live in Seattle, so who fucking knows. They could be all jacked for this fucking game. I'd take the Seahawks. Seahawks minus five and a half? I'd probably take them to win, but, you know, by three. I don't know. I'll just settle with that. No, I'd take the Seahawks. Rams would cover Seahawks. It's like Seahawks by three for sure. Let me start with this. Why are y'all hating so much on the Rams? I'm not hating on the Rams. No, well. Keep a cup of that. Okay. Yeah, okay. I just think Seattle, I think June Smith is going to go off, and I just think everybody's healthy, and they're going to have a better outscore out of the whole game. Well, I think this is one of the big balls of the week. I mean, going for Rams, and I don't even think it's a bad pick. I don't know if that's what I'm going to pick, but, I mean, you're giving the Rams five and a half. I understand they had a horrible year last year, but they also had like a third, fourth backup playing, you know. They got hit with an injury last year, and I think people are just going with the narrative that everyone else is putting, that this team is just like not good, and they shouldn't worry about it, and they're just going to be another team. But I think they'll stick with winning eight games. You know, I think they could be solid. Will they win this game? Probably not. But, I mean, five and a half, I mean, who the fuck is Seattle? Really, what are they, an 8-9 team? Now they should be five and a half points spread on a team that we know nothing about really. I mean, Super Cup, yeah, I get it, but, I mean, you got Sean McVay. I mean, I don't think people are giving him the respect. I mean, it is Sean McVay. You know what I'm saying? He's got a fucking Super Bowl title. With a Super Bowl title quarterback still. So, I don't know. I take fucking, you want to talk Geno Smith? I want to talk fucking Matthew Stafford, nigga. I'll put Matthew Stafford over Geno Smith any fucking day. So, five and a half points, that's like, I don't know. I may not like that. I don't, it's, I think it's super fucking sharp, to be honest with you, because I ain't heard one person say anything like the Rams. And, obviously, it's moving the other way, too. But, I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. I don't know if it will be a top five playoff. All right. So, let's see. Is this, I don't know. So, Milk, are you like a big Cowboys fan? Because they're, you want me to tell them? He's broke back mountain. All right. So, the Cowboys. Can't be big of a Cowboys fan. All right. So. Yeah, I got the Cowboys, but I can't bear this. So. But, yeah. I would pick the Cowboys over the Giants. I mean, Giants, I'm glad Waters is back. Matt Jones looks good. I mean, Shaquille Barkley is going to go off. But, I think defense-wise, I think Cowboys have the best defense in the National League. Yeah. I mean, yeah. I mean, yeah. I think it's a fucking top five defense. That's why I would pick them. I mean, they always own the Giants. They don't have nobody to shut down. But, I mean, the Giants, they are better. They have a real head coach. So, they get the most out of their shit. So, it's a little bit disrespectful for them to be three points up. Like, in a primetime game. So, yeah. I mean, like I said, I want to pick the Cowboys here, but I just, I can't do it. I mean, I could see the Giants, like, losing by three or even winning the game. So, I mean, we'll see. This should be a fucking good watch and shit. Yeah. I don't know if he's, are you against the Giants or not? Yeah, he's all, yeah, like, he's always up to ass-kissing against the Cowboys. What's the next team? And then, there's the Bills and the Jets Monday night. So, I kind of want to elect the Jets here. They'll probably fucking win, but I just don't like the number. Like, they could maybe lose by fucking three. I mean, you know. If I was going to be three, I would elect the Jets, I would like for sure, but. What are you against the Jets? Nah, we already talked about the Cowboys and the Giants. Do you have anything on that? I don't like to bet the Cowboys, and I don't like to bet against the Cowboys. That's what I would say about that. And then the Bills and the Jets. Jets plus two. The Spreds too, I think. Damn, it's going the other way. I still take the Bills all day. The Bills are favored by two on the road. Wasn't it one and a half? It was, yeah. It moved up to two. Man, I would kind of be three, maybe, really, but. I don't know, yeah. Yeah, for most, I'm real close to the Jets. I don't know, maybe. I don't know, I might do some more research, maybe. Let me see. It might be better to take the Jets to the Patriots. I want to take the Jets over to the Patriots. No, yeah, yeah, let's just start with, this is the past. So, I mean, yeah. So, I pretty much, like, yeah, have what my five are. Do you have, like, a five? Is this the last pit? Is this the last one? Yeah. Okay, I'll just say this about the Jets and the Bills. The Jets are trying to, they're in the same division, first of all, right? Yeah, the division, yeah. And then they're division underdogs at home. Yeah. One thing that I want to bring up that I was reading today is that in the last, I think it was like six years, in opening week one, the divisional underdogs at home cover 88%. 88%, bro. So, if we just went down the list right now, who would that be? That would be Atlanta. No, no, no. Who would that be? That would be the Jets. That would be the Cowboys. I mean, the Giants. The whole underdogs? Oh, yeah, the Giants. The Giants. The Bears. No, no, the Bears are favorite. Yeah, I mean, there's a few of them. The Colts. I don't know. I have to fucking, yeah, rank some of this shit. I mean, the Bills and Jets and the fucking Jaguars. Look, I tell you what. I'm going to tell you right now. I bet you someone is going to take all five underdog divisionals. So, now you're looking at the Browns, the Colts. Well, here there's been a divisional. The Colts, Browns, Giants, Jets. Those are all favorites. And then what's the other ones? Eagles and Patriots. No, no, no. I'm talking about up here. Or was that the first one? So, there's four of them. Yeah. There's four of them. Oh, the Cowboys and Giants. Yeah, Giants. So, that's for four. Yeah, I got four of those. All right. So, let's get down to the bottom. Well, Raiders and Broncos, but Raiders are a road divisional. The Packers and Bears are also a road divisional. No, it's got to be home underdog divisions. So, there's four. So, a road doesn't matter. There's four of them. Yeah. So, I mean, if we just want to go with how most veterans do it, they're in for the long run. I guarantee there's going to be a lot that goes for all four of those because history says they're 88%. So, that's not how we do it here, though. We go off on hunches with how we feel. At the end of the day, if we go off of somebody else's picks and we lose, then they're going to be right. If we go on our own gut and we lose, fuck it. We'll learn from it. And so, that being said, you say you got like five? Yeah, but I'm going to do more research. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And normally. How long is the podcast right now? It's at 44 minutes. Okay. And I will say this. This week we've been very, very, very unorganized. We usually have this shit together a lot better, but a lot of some preceding circumstances happened. So, we're kind of just winging this bitch. I'm going to post out every Sunday morning what our final five picks were, but at least you guys can listen to try and get the numbers early because I can tell you from in our past, when we talk about these numbers, what the lines that we see right now, they're not going to be the lines on Sunday. If you really like a team, you need to get them fucking early because if not, they're going to become at a premium. They're not going to be cheap. And at that point, it's like, man, it's hard for you to get better. And then that's how you get suckers. So, we're going to be posting these out a little bit sooner before Sunday. So, Saturday I'm going to be posting this out. And I'll tell you my best bets at the end of this podcast every best bet of the week. So, at least you can get it. Because on my Facebook, I'm going to do it about ten minutes before the game starts. Why? Because I got motherfuckers using my picks against me. They're taking my picks and they're betting it against me on my book. So, I mean, I'm just going to leave it at that. And I don't mind that if they can catch me. But I'd rather them listen to this and show me some support, show Paul some support, because we put a lot of hours in this. This is next time we're going to have a little bit more data in front of us. But this is just what we've been feeling overall for a week. So, it's easy for us to just give our answers out. It's going to get more in detail, analytical, later on. But I just wanted to kind of say that before we give out our best picks and our top fives. And we'll be back. I don't know. No. Yeah, man. I don't know. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. And we got the Paul we wanted the other day, man. Hey, no, you're right. We got the Paul that we wanted. So, I don't know. It's okay. That's what it is. You taking one, too? Hold on. Take one. No, the only thing I'll do is I'll drink more beer. Yeah, I'll drink a pickle of Ultra. I'm going to do that. You're going to be Paul's official. I'm going to take a second and smoke, for sure. What did you say about love? Fuck love. Fuck love. I'm going to tell you my choice. Love ain't shit. You're going to be like, whoops. You're going to be like, whoops. You're going to be like, whoops. I'm going to wear. I'm going to give him a shirt that says, love ain't shit. It's going to be green with yellow letters. I'm going to wear my fucking, love God, love people. I love God. I know that, but I got to finish saying that. Love God, love people. I said, I love God, fuck the enemy. I mean, you got the love ain't shit. I said, fuck Jordan Love, not love. Oh. Yeah, I know. But you could be right, though. So, if you're right. Look, I'm going to put Green Bay on my motherfucking card. Okay. But if love ain't shit, I'm fucking wearing it. So, what did you do with the Raiders? What the fuck was that? I mean, I thought, you don't like that one? No, look, look, look. I did like the Raiders. And I don't even remember talking about the Raiders. You need to stop fucking working there with all their jerseys. No, no, no. But listen, listen, listen. Listen, I was a Cowboys fan, and I didn't bet on the Cowboys either. Oh, now that's happened. Now you're. No, yeah. It's one of those, like, okay, am I talking with my heart, or am I talking with my brain? If you're like, when they're going over six and a half, I'm like, oh shit. Let me turn this around and say, I don't remember you talking about the Raiders or the fucking Broncos. None of that. Think about it, because I have plenty to say about it. Well, no. I was saying fucking, like, Fezzik and shit. That was the reason why I liked it. I ain't listening to Fezzik. Fuck Fezzik right now, man. He's on my shit list, dude. He cost me some money. Hold on. I swear, that's the gayest fucking opening ever. We're going to take that on week two. All right? No offense to anybody gay. It's just, like, I don't want to get close enough to that. That's all. Hey, we're going to be getting people that cancel posters. They're going to, oh yeah, they're going to give us shit. People got to listen to actual cancelers. Fuck them. Let's go ahead, man. We spent about 45 minutes talking about, you know, kind of freestyling on what our picks are. We kind of narrowed it down. I narrowed it down to seven picks. Paul's got his five. The thing, what we do every week and why we even congregate is because we are in a league together where we have to pick five teams against the spread every week and we've got to come to an agreement. So right now we've got four agreements. We'll go ahead and just let you know them real quick and give a reason why. And then you guys can listen to us while we discuss. And live, too, because we haven't even, this is not premeditated or anything. This is how we're going to come up with our fifth pick by just arguing. And that's why I think it makes for good entertainment and why we decided to record. So first things first, right now we both are agreeing on the Browns plus two and a half. Paul, you want to kind of give a quick brief why again? Do you like the Browns plus two and a half? This is, I think there's two, we'll just say these are the two best bets, the best sharp bets. One is Pittsburgh, which we already talked about a lot in the first segment. And the Browns here, it's two and a half, which is begging public action on that. The 49ers and the Bengals, they're both the top regression of the teams because they got hot last year. They start slow and they regress. So they're definitely going to start slow. Can they fucking get it going again like that? That's what the thing is. But they're playing two fucking really good teams at Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those are both playoff contenders for sure. So, like I said, we start from a point where minus three at home is the metric. And then you build your, whatever, matrix of data from there. Your power rating. No, fuck that. That's an offensive term. No, it's not a power rating. Now we're talking confidence fix, bro. True. Well, let me put it in perspective of what he's trying to say is that the Bengals are favored on the road against Browns. So what the point spread minus two and a half means is three points is for the home field. So if this was in a neutral playing field, Bengals would be favored by five and a half. If this was at Cincinnati, the line would be eight and a half. I don't think Bengals with Joe Burrow having a hamstring and they don't want to go too far up. They'd rather lose early than lose late. They're going to be conservative with him. Browns have a good team all together around. They have a lot of talent. The only question mark that I have is Deshaun Watson, seeing if he's going to be able to do a lot better than what he did last year. The next one that we are in agreement with is the Steelers plus two and a half. I think this is the biggest sharp play of the week because all the sharps are on the Steelers and a lot of the tickets are on the 49ers. This is classic. Steelers are up 14-0 after a first quarter. Yeah, well you think that it's going to be a first quarter. This is the shit when we were in the fuckin' 90s where kids were like, oh fuck. Hey, no homo. But let's go to the commanders against the Cardinals. We all agree, including the square of the week. Jonathan agreed on the commanders minus seven. So, like I said, typically we like to be on the sharp side of the ball when we do these picks. But we like commanders minus seven because Cardinals, they just crash. Yeah, I give it a little dose. The Lions are like 0-16. This could be the first 0-17 team. They're not even worth two games, man. This is even shit. The Rosters trash. They're a bad organization, man. This is why I get... Like, you gotta lay... You keep fuckin' saying Dubs. You gotta lay points against the Cardinals. Single digits. Single digits against the Cardinals right now. You got a hard-off for Dubs. Maybe the Giants minus seven next week. Hold on, hold on, hold on. I don't know. This got kind of out of hand because we started talking about the commanders. 24-7. Thunder. Tease all that shit. Washington all day. This is what every dumbass is going to regret not doing if they don't do it. This is fuckin' aces against kings, man. You're good. You gotta hold up. Chill out. And this is why I chose Paul as my counterpart because I love these rants. These are great because he's very passionate and so am I. I don't even know. We didn't even mention the commanders. We just kept talking shit about the Cardinals. I think that, yeah, everything that Paul said, we'll go ahead and defer that. We're on the same side with commanders minus seven. So that's three kings that we have in agreement. Browns. Steelers. Commanders. Minus seven. I'm good with the fuckin' Raiders. I'll start by the end. I'm good with the Raiders. Okay. We'll go with the Raiders. So let's go ahead and go with the Raiders. Now we have to decide between the Giants and the Jets. Which one's your strongest? I would choose, so this is just based off of where I'm at right now. I would choose the Jets because I've done the most research with them and I have the best, like, instinct. I'm a little disrespectful to them. Yeah. I get it. I get it. I mean, it could be a three. That's the only thing. We didn't even get the hook on that one, which is kind of surprising. Yeah. I don't want a tie. You know what? Let me tell you this. Now that you said that, that's a good fuckin' point. There's no hook on there. It's just three. I'd rather take a fuckin' loss than take a fuckin' hook because them ties are not going to do us any good. They're almost like a fuckin' loss anyways. When you mentioned that, that kind of took me off the Jets. I'm a Giants. You said that you feel more better about the Jets. I'd rather defer to you because you spill a certain confidence about the Jets. I don't have any confidence on the Giants or the Jets. I just would rather pick that side. So I'm going to defer to you and say, look, you got more confidence on one of those teams than I do with any of them. Let's just fuckin' go with the Jets because it's plus two instead of plus three. That three is going to kill me if that lands on fuckin' three. I'll go fuckin' Jets. It's going to be ugly and it's going to be a fun game to watch as a veteran, but I think it's going to get there. It's kind of similar to Raiders. I know that bitch is going to be a sweat, but it's a sweat hair to fork with this one. I could see the other three being fuckin' easy wins. I don't see the other easy wins under those three. All right, so we all got lives to live, so let's just break it down. This is our final pick. Browns plus two and a half. Agreement? Yes. Okay, hold on. All right. We'd like the Steelers plus two and a half. Is that an agreement? Yes. Okay. I know why I put that one. Hold on, hold on. There we go. All right. Steelers plus two and a half. That's our favorite bet. Commanders minus seven and a half. Are we in agreement? Yes. Okay. Okay, we'd like the Raiders plus three and a half against the Broncos. Are we in agreement? Yes. Okay. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Are we in the Raiders? The Raiders, that's a tough case. The Raiders. We're talking about the Raiders. Yeah, that's a little bit more like the Raiders. Okay. Yeah, yeah. The shots are fired. Yeah. Well, we'll take the Raiders. All right. And then we had a long discussion about the Giants and the Jets. I'm going to defer to Paul this week. He has a strong feeling about the Jets. I don't, so I'm going to go ahead. Well, I think it's more, I'm more tuned in on the, it's more fading the bills, I would say. I feel that. But, yeah. And I agree on that. Yeah. I agree on that. And Jets is not a bad side either, too. So, either you're fading the bills or you're betting them because you like the bills. I think you're a good side. I mean the Jets. And the reason why I wasn't too sure about it is because what I'm thinking and what we're thinking, the Jets, it was plus one and a half. Yeah, I just don't like the number. I wish I could get it for me, but, you know, it is what it is. That means that the line is going the other way. Which means this is a trap game. That means that the pros are betting the bills because the Jets are getting a better number. So, that's why I'm kind of scared because I'm going against the brain. But, you know what? That's what wins fucking, you got to go against the brain. You can't be just going off of what everybody else is going to pick. So, Jets is a fucking solid and bold ass pick and we'll go ahead and go with that on our final five picks. And, yeah, I appreciate y'all listening.