Shanghai Masters Betting Podcast

Welcome to the Shanghai Masters Succubetian podcast with myself, Craig Edwards and George Weyer. Thanks to all the listeners who tuned in for the European Masters one last month and sorry that we couldn't have given you a few winners but it's just the start of the season and welcome George. What did you think of the European Masters? Yeah, Barry Hawkins, winning, thrilled for him, about time he won one in 2017, 4-4-3. He was just rock solid all week wasn't he? You know, beating world champion Breslau, Selby in the semis where his back was against the wall and then beating Trump in the final. It's about time that he performed in a final, obviously he got to the final last year and completely got outplayed by Kyne Wilson. It seems to be a thing that happens with him when he gets to the final, he's alright getting there, it's just in finals either the player he plays against plays really well or he just completely flops but yeah, it's great for him and after the season he had last year and won the European Masters last year, it was absolutely diabolical. The world championship fell apart and yeah, he should be challenging really for a lot of tournaments this year, especially with a little bit less pressure on him now, he's won that one and gets him into the players' championship, World Grand Prix, possibly the tour championship at the end of the season. So you'd think he'd be back in the top 16 come May. Yeah and that kind of starts to, you know, you start to think about that he would have a chance in the world championships once ranked in the top 16 and like you say, he's going to qualify probably for all them events and yeah, I mean he's quite interesting. I know that I'd advise members to take him, I think some firms were knocking about 80 to 1 and 100 to 1 which if he gets in the top 16, even if you accept that he might not win it losing the final, it's still a big priced score and I thought what was interesting this time around was how well he played in the semis and final, especially the final but he does play well against those two players, Selby and Trump, doesn't he? Yeah, he's pumpable, isn't he? Yeah, he really does pump them quite a bit and you know, if those cards fell at the world championship for him, then yeah, what do you think to his chances at the world championship? Yeah, he's done the course of distance, hasn't he? Before he got to the final, I think it was the year that Ronnie won it when he barely played all season. Yeah. He's got to, was it, multiple semifinals. Yeah, he loves the format, loves the place. You know, the only negative against him is probably his age. He's 44 now. Make him the oldest first-time winner ever. I think the oldest first-time winner is like 1952, Horace Lindrum for all you old-time snooker fans, Australian, yeah. Yeah, he's against him, but I mean, he's fit as a fiddle, isn't he? He's not exactly... Yeah, his standard of play is still there, isn't it? Of course it is, yeah. And I mean, I remember Dennis Taylor finally winning the world title after winning the Rothmans at the start of the season and you know, I mean, Purcell popped in and did what Joe Johnson did and now maybe Hawkins, although they're probably the... I think Taylor won, then Johnson won, so it'd be the wrong way around, but... Yeah, it would, yeah. There's a little bit of symmetry there. Yeah. But anyhow, no symmetry needed, not really a good reason for anyone to bet, but he has got a chance. So it leads us into this week and of course, he's not playing this week in the Shanghai Masters, which is the world's top 16. Four invites and then four of the Asian invites and it's, well, really interesting events at the start of the season, best of 11s, best of 19 semis, best of 21 in the final. Ronnie started his season there and I guess we're going to find out whether Ronnie's up for it this year or not, because he normally is up for these events and the betting markets have opened with him as a 4-1 favourite from Trump at 92. You got any thoughts on Ronnie in the top section, George? Yes, it's a very, very top heavy, top half really. Obviously, O'Sullivan's won the last three Shanghai Masters, two of them were non-rankers, he's won it four times altogether. I mean, the field's fantastic, isn't it? It's like a spruced up Masters, champion of champions, full of the best players. I mean, last year's sort of role of honour, ranking winners, there's only Ryan Day and Chris Wake there who aren't here, so it's full of absolute quality. But yeah, O'Sullivan, he just loves Shanghai, doesn't he? Loves China. I said it, didn't I? Back end of last season, how much he's going to enjoy these Asian events. He starts seasons pretty well. He's got likely to be out of the carcer in his first match. He leads the heads-to-heads really well against carcer, he leads them 10-3. Yeah, and carcer's looked quite slow out of the box this season as well. A little bit, yeah. Yeah, I think he looks quite opposable, if you want to say that. He's won the Shanghai Masters in 2010. Yes. Yeah, I think it's quite a good draw for O'Sullivan. I think he likes playing carcer. There's no love lost between those two, is there? Yeah, O'Sullivan's... You don't know what his prep's been like, but it's not a bad starter, is it? He likes these sort of events, doesn't he? He doesn't like the qualifying, he's got no interest in playing in atmospheric arenas. He's straight into it here, and it suits him. If he's put the practice in, he's probably the man to beat. Yeah, you've got to say that. He's got it right, 4-1 favourite. I mean, Ronnie's always going to be a favourite for most events. I think if you look at anti-post, of any of the triple crowns, he's the favourite for all of them. You know, obviously, if he brings his A game, he's going to be very, very hard to beat. Obviously, as you said about the invitationals, he won the Hong Kong Masters, didn't he, last year? Yeah. Yeah, he's got a very good record in China. As much as I say, it's a very, very hard-looking top half. Players are in great form, to be honest with you. Really good form players in there. He's got it all to do. I wouldn't want to be touching him, I don't think, at 4-1. No, I won't be back at 4-1, no. I mean, I do respect his chances, but looking at the way John Higgins has started the season, I really fancy John Higgins' chances of, well, if he gets past the wild card, he's going to play Kieran Wilson and, well, I mean, to be truthful, I don't know when Kieran Wilson's ever going to beat him again. He just owns him ridiculously, and I guess that John Higgins will still be beating him when Kieran Wilson decides to hang up his cue. Yeah, that's true. Good point. It has just been ridiculous. And then, of course, if John Higgins wins, he'll play Ronnie, and John Higgins is the one player in snooker that you can always confidently fancy to beat Ronnie as a second favourite. And, you know, pretty much, I think as a value pick from that section, I would definitely like to be backing John Higgins, and I probably will be tipping him for the quarter. Don't know about the outright, because I do fancy Judd Trump in the next section, which always causes John a problem, as much as he owns Kieran, Trump owns him in recent times. Yeah, so true. So, but John Higgins is playing well enough, and I think he'll be a solid bet for that top section, I really do, because the bookmakers, he's got a wild card match, then it'll be a coin flip, be Kieran. Yeah, I think he's going to be a solid selection for anyone in that section. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree with you. Yeah, I think he started the season really, really sort of encouragingly. Obviously, he won, he got to the final, didn't he, in the Chinese invitational at Huangguoxu, against Judd Trump. Played very well in this whole tournament, not in three centuries, six breaks over 50, and obviously locked to the semi-final of the European Masters, where, as you mentioned, he always seems to lose against Judd. He lost, was it 6-5? Yeah. You know, he led 3-0, 4-2, 5-4, and went on to lose, but he played really well in the tournament. I mean, he didn't exactly have an easy draw, did he? Joe Yulong, Kieran, Sean Murphy. They've had the most amazing heads-up in their careers, John Higgins and Trump, because John Higgins owned him all the time in the long matches until Trump won the World Championship final, and since then, it's just been the other way around. Indeed, yeah, you're absolutely right. It's just an amazing turnaround, and I suppose it gives Kieran Wilson hope that one day he might turn things around. But, yeah, so I think we're both kind of thinking that John Higgins has, you know, a little bit of value in the top half to oppose Ronnie. The only thing I would say about John Higgins, a bit of a negative, is he's got a bit of a bad record, really, in, you know, your sort of high-profile invitationals. Yes. He's never won this event, when it's been an invitational, I should say. Yeah. His last Masters win was in 2006, even though he's won it twice. Yeah. He's only made one climb in 17 years. Yeah. He's only won the Champions once in 10 appearances. Yeah. That's a little bit against him, as much as he's got to seven ranking finals in China, and he's won three of them, but his last win was in 2015 International Championship, so that's a negative. But, as you said, I mean, Higgins has been scoring so well as well, last season he knocked in 44 centuries, averaged one every four and a half frames that he won the century, so he's certainly scoring well. It's just been the results, really, but it's really encouraging how he played in Nuremberg. I totally agree with you. Yeah. Yeah, good. I mean, what do you make of Section 2? I'm not quite as... Have you got anything you like in there, George? In the top half? Yeah, sorry, in Quarter 2 of the top half, yeah. Well, yeah, it's very, very difficult to call, isn't it? I mean, Selby, he was a bit, sort of, I don't know what to say about him in Nuremberg. I mean, he didn't play fantastically to get to the semi-final. He probably should have beaten Hawkins. Hawkins did a number of evil clearances, didn't he, to go 6-5-4? Yeah. But Vafai, he lost last year against Vafai. He has, in the 11th. One in the Masters, two in the UK. I don't think he likes playing Vafai, to be honest with you. He's been a bit sticky this season as well, a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, he's very... He's quite inconsistent, Vafai. Maybe that's what Selby finds difficult playing him. Good point. And I think Selby finds the players difficult that go all-out attack against him. Like, Jack Wazowski's had a good record against him. Judd. Those players really trouble Selby because they don't try and get involved in any kind of tactical play and they are just going to play their strengths against him. So, it's a difficult match for Selby, isn't it? It is, yeah. Very difficult. And I mean, Vafai's got a good record in China as well. Does enjoy playing over there. We got to a semi-final in the China Open, perhaps, a few years ago. Very good point. He can beat anybody, can't he, on his day? Yeah. But as you say, getting it right for Vafai, it's just lacks that little bit of consistency. He's five, really. He's not really... You know, he's on the fringes of the top 16, isn't he? Yeah. I mean, Judd. I totally get your point about Judd. I mean, he's got such a good record against Joe Ulonga, who he might play, if you're interested in him and Lissowski. I watched a bit of Judd in the qualifiers for the British Open, I think it was, and played Lucas Cleckers. I mean, Cleckers isn't anything special, but I thought Judd was really hitting the ball well. I was really encouraged by him. I mean, obviously, got a lot of confidence from the European Masters. I think the commentator's made a good point, picked up on him staying down a bit longer on the shot. And of course, we know Judd's style is very much his own, and keeping Stiller on the shot will help him, and definitely help him get through the ball better. And like you say, he does appear to be timing the ball better, doesn't he? Yeah, he's got a good record against Lissowski, that's fair. Jack's beaten him twice in China previously, but he's only lost once to Joe Ulonga. Still, Joe Ulonga's a bit of a flat-trap bully in a way. He can dominate your lower-ranked players, but put him into the Premier League against the X-Factor-type players, just seem to struggle. I'd much prefer to see Lissowski play Judd. Obviously, they're good mates, aren't they? Off the table. Yeah. Lissowski, he's a hard one to assess, isn't he? He's got to win a tournament eventually. Maybe he'll just come out the blue. Maybe he could come in this tournament. Well, yeah. I mean, I do tend to agree. I mean, he could easily come in. You're kind of talking me round to his chance because, obviously, he does have a good record against Joe Ulonga, I think. And, well, I mean, he's opened at 40-1, Jack. That's not the worst price in the world. No, it's not. It's quite tempting, really. Because you mentioned about he's got a good record against Selby. That's a good point. You like him playing Higgins, Selby. He beat John Higgins as well. So, I mean, if John Higgins was to beat Ronnie, then John Higgins is a far better draw for Jack than Ronnie would be. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I kind of, I didn't really think until we started chatting, but I think you've made quite a case there for some value on Jack. Yeah, I mean, I do like him a lot. It's great that he's turned to Peter Eddon to sort of solidify his sort of play, in a way, so he's not all going all out. He's sort of doing what Judd did, in a way. Yes. Judd was sort of a bit like a Jack in his early days. He's not quite, obviously, he's not quite Judd's sort of consistent standard, but he's getting there, isn't he? He's got to. He's got to have to win one event. I mean, look at, I know you look at someone like Rob Milken, who, you know, it took him until last season doing his first, like, ranking event. And really, Jack, in a way, is sort of quite similar to Rob in his style of play. Yeah. You know, he will win one event. I don't want any of this, he'll never win a ranking event. He will click in one. Well, you can't reach the amount of semis and finals that he has without being capable of winning, picking one up easy. I mean, he's just, he picks up Judd in so many finals. Judd is not the player to play in finals, in general, or wasn't. He has started to lose a few now. So, I agree with you. I think, you know, Jack will win when we're least expecting it. So, this could be it. I think 40 to 1, well, I wouldn't put anyone else having a little bet on that. Yeah. Each way. Yeah. So, pretty much, I mean, we're pretty much saying that Jack's value in Quarter 2 and John Higgins Quarter 1. So, what do you make of the third section and the top half of the bottom section, George? Looks, again, sort of, well, looks a bit open. Obviously, Mark Allen plays Gary Wilson or Fan Zhengzi. I mean, Allen's got a cracking record in China. From 2012 to 2018, six finals, he won three of them. Good point. You know, Fan, he's not, you know, he's not totally disregarded. I mean, it'd be interesting how he gets on against Gary Wilson. Yeah. He's got to the semis, didn't he? Good point. Former European Masters winner. Yeah. Gary finally got a, you know, win today in the English Open qualifiers. Looks a good match, doesn't it? It's been Fan Zhengzi. So, that will give him a little bit of a boost. He's got to a final in China before, 2015. Yeah. And you probably would have to favour Allen, but I think, yeah, I'd sort of rather look elsewhere, I think, in the quarter. So, would you give Gary Wilson a little bit of a squeak at 66's each way? I think you could. Yeah, I mean, I think he's, you know, he's sort of maturing as a player, isn't he? He's got, you know, won, finally won his first ranking event last season in the Scottish. He's, yeah, he didn't go a bad record against Mark Allen. He's lost three of seven, but there were a lot of close matches against him. So... I remember when we went to the Crucible, George, and he was playing Brazil, wasn't he? And I remember saying to you, because you know him better than I do, and I remember saying to you how impressed I was how he played that year and, well, went on to reach the semis of the World Championship. So, yeah, he's got a certain pedigree, hasn't he? Yeah, he has, he has. He's, well, he is, he's still obviously in the top 16. He'll be probably fighting, you know, to keep his place in there. And this one, obviously, being an invitational non-ranker might sort of let off a bit of steam on him. Sort of, there's no ranking points involved. So, yeah, he's... I wouldn't totally discount him in his quarter. No, no. So, what about the bottom section? I mean, you've got Neil Robertson with his refurb Q awaiting the match between the winner of Ding Zhengwei and Si Juel. Yeah, that's... Yeah, I mean, Ding, I think, sort of discussed it before, and I think... I think Ding's, you know, still the godfather of Chinese snooker. I mean, he's won this event twice, in 2013, 2016. Yeah. I mean, significantly beats Selby, didn't he, in the one? Yeah. I think he's got a good chance at, you know, the prizes, 25 to 1. He loves the big events. He's won six of his 14 rankers in China. He's won two minor ranking events as well, two World Cups, two Reds, six Reds in Asia. And he's actually only lost one final in China, in the ranking finals, 2010 China Open. The other six he won. He's a big game player, isn't he? Loves the big events. Got to the final of the UK last year. Semi-final of the Tour Championship. He's a player that you know will perform well in his own country. He's very comfortable. I think he's probably been over there during the, you know, the summer. He actually likes starting his season as well in China. Yeah. He's won quite a few events down the years. Got to a lot of finals in his first events as well. Obviously, you don't know how he's been practising. I expect him to be tuned up pretty well though. Yeah, I think, you know, he'll be really gunning for a good tournament, won't he? He's like Ronnie to me. He doesn't want to play in the qualifiers. He's got no interest. And these sort of events, he'll look forward to it. And I would imagine he's reasonably prepared. And the one thing he does play well is against his countrymen to keep his kind of number one rating and sees you well. CGL has been a little bit flat this season so far. I mean, I don't think me and you were surprised. I think we were more surprised. He reached the semis of the World Championship to be truthful. And it's probably to be expected at the moment that he's trying to kind of justify his elevated status in the game, right? He's rightly elevated as well. But, you know, he lost to Kieran 5-0. And, you know, he's doing fine. He's doing fine. But he's going to have a period of consolidation. And he still needs to improve to beat Ding here and Neil Robertson. I mean, it's the next match, Neil Robertson, that, well, Robbo's in a bit of trouble on the ranking. He needs to use this event as a tune-up, really. He has a reasonable record in China, though. Robertson, don't he, George? Yeah, he's won a few events, hasn't he? I think Ding's obviously a little bit better. Those guys haven't met since 2020. They've played twice in this tournament as well. 2019, Robertson won 6-3. And 2013, Ding won. And he's also beaten in the China Open final in 2014. So, yeah, Robbo, he's not, yeah, he's interesting. He said about his Q refurbishment. He was, I mean, he's not in a century against Wu Yizi and then lost in the European Masters. And then he had a bit of an easy result in qualifying recently against his fellow countryman, Ryan Thomason. Expected, obviously, to win that. But, yeah, I certainly want to take Robertson on. He doesn't look completely right to me yet. Obviously, congratulations to him with his 900th century. Incredible achievement. Yes, yeah. To be the fourth player ever to do it. Yeah, incredible. Amazing scorer. Can you imagine eventually he's going to click in a tour move? I don't think he's going to be here. I think he's still not quite right yet. Obviously, I think we'll know with Robertson when he's ready to win a tour move. I don't think it's quite yet. As much as we all know how good his record is fresh in the early season. But, yeah, I definitely want to take him on. Probably with Ding. Yeah, I think we're both kind of getting on the Ding train in that quarter. And then the bottom section, well, you've got just a bunch of attacking players and Pan Zhengzhou. And I just have not got a clue. Have you got any clue, George? No, it looks a bit like the second quarter. It's pretty wide open. Murphy got bashed in Germany by Higgins. Interestingly, his record against Rob Milkins, 7-7 in head-to-heads. He won. Milkins beat him 9-7 in the Welsh Open this season. Then Murphy got his revenge in the tour championship winning 10-8. That could be a close one to call. Then Bressel. I thought he was all right in Germany. He was. I don't think there's too much negativity to go around. Was it quarters? Was it last 16 quarters? I don't think he did too much wrong. He was a bit, yeah, he was a little bit, I can't think of the word, a little bit stale in some of his early matches. It would be interesting if he gets his cue back, which he lost in Trip to Seattle or whatever it was. He's got to be a threat, isn't he? You think he'll improve from his first tournament. Interestingly, he's got a terrible record against Williams. He obviously beat him at the Crucible in April. Last 16, 13, 11. Who's to that? Williams won all five. I think it will be Williams against Bressel. Pang doesn't look yet the player he was last season. He's had a few poor results this season. Bressel and Williams will be an absolute corker, won't they? I think the winner of that could have a very big say in the whole tournament, I think. I'll go with that, definitely. Definitely, George. I would definitely go with Luca and Matt Williams. I have to say, I was very undecided, to be true. Like you, I don't think Bressel did anything wrong in his opening event as world champion. He just liked the limelight. Sean Murphy is who Sean Murphy is. He's playing well still, but he's decided now that he's going to use different cues for different frames. It's just borderline silly. He just distracts himself from the task at hand with all these silly things because he's playing beautifully. That's the main thing. Once you start trialling other cues, you can see a player like Neil Robertson is taking a little bit of time to get used to a refurb. We remember playing, change a tip, change a foul, change a putt. The slightest thing changes the throw in the cue of the ball. How he's going to play with multiple cues, yes, Bressel does it. We know he does, but Bressel is supremely talented. Supreme natural talent. A chap in his 40s with the best will in the world is going to struggle with the different fields of cues. I do not know why he's distracted himself. He kind of has to do these things, like he's qualifying for the Open or something like that. He's playing beautiful snooker. Just get on with playing the snooker and win the tournaments. I don't know. Maybe that's Sean Murphy in a nutshell. Maybe that's probably why he still wins the tournaments. He's got such a high standard, but equally his overall count of tournaments you'd say is just as disappointing as someone like Barry Hawkins. Yes, he's obviously a little bit of a nutcase, I think. I think they spoke to Karin Wilson in the last event and they said to him, you're going to be getting three cues for the next tournament. And he was like, no. Yes, I know. Everyone do. Yes, everyone's buying into it. So in the end he's going to stubbornly think, well, I'll keep doing it because I'll try and I'll prove everyone wrong. He probably will. Yes, good luck with that project. I mean, if anyone can prove people wrong, it'll be Luca maybe. And I know a cue is a cue and these lads can make a maximum within a frame or two of a cue. I mean, when I was playing, I think I made a maximum first frame with the cue I used. And it didn't stop me binning it about three months later. So I think we've probably got five minutes left to just recap our kind of suggestions for listeners, George. So do you want to go through section one again for them? Yes. I mean, I think we both sort of agree with Higgins and cracking record against Kyron. He's won four times this year against Kyron, believe it or not. Kyron hasn't beaten him for three years. So yeah, Higgins, as you say, he's just got a little bit, you know, a little bit more too much for Kyron, I think, at the moment. And as you say, he's very comfortable against O'Sullivan. If anyone can beat O'Sullivan, even over there, I think, you know, the Wizard of Whistler is the man. Yeah. And then, as I say, it's so difficult in the quarter too. It's sort of take your pick. Very, very hard. You talked me into Jack Lazowski a little bit. So I think I'll be leaning that way. Yeah. Heart and head with him. Yeah. But at 40-1, each way, a half, one, two, there's no real downside to backing Jack. I think, you know, he's going to reach the final plenty of times if he played it 40 times. So Section 3 then. You liked Ding Jung Wee like me, didn't you? The potential for him to continue his kind of domination of his tournaments in his homeland. Yeah. I totally agree with you. Just a big game player. Yeah. I think he just wants to, you know, I think he'll definitely want to put Solid Jai Wee to the cleaners, to be fair. I mean, he'd have looked at him winning so many matches in the world, nearly, you know, getting to the final, and he'd be thinking, yeah, I'm going to take you apart. Yeah. I'll show you who the governor is of Chinese Snoop, and I think he'll do it. I'd definitely rather be backing him at 25s than Robertson, whatever price he is, single figures. Yeah. I thought you made a good point about Gary Wilson reaching the final uncomfortable out there. I noticed that even in some matches he's lost his season, he's scoring well. So 66s ain't the worst price for a guy of his class each way. Yeah. Definitely for the quarter anyway, yeah. And then the bottom section, well, I'll let you take it away with that, George. Yeah, it's a bit of a minefield, isn't it? Whoever plays well on the day or whatever the matches they play. Perhaps Sean Murphy and Brasel can swap cues if they play in the quarters, play with each other's cue, and then I'd definitely be backing Brasel. Yeah, he could play with a tree trunk. I reckon so, yeah. You could just take the sweeping brush out for him. He'd clear up Sean Murphy's mess, no problem. So, yeah, I think that gives people some suggestions, George, of some each-way value. Keep bets, you know, modest and gamble responsibly. Yeah. And enjoy the snooker and we'll be back again and hopefully you'll enjoy this podcast. So it just remains for me to thank George. Cheers, Craig. Thanks very much for having me. Well, no, George, we do it together, mate, so it's all good. And I shall catch you online. Yeah, great stuff. Cheers, Craig. Thanks, George.