#5 Andrew Wilkie and being independent

Andrew Wilkie, independent member for the Tasmanian federal seat of Clark, discusses his experiences as an independent politician. He talks about his past involvement with the Greens and his unsuccessful bids for election before finally winning a seat in federal parliament. Wilkie reflects on the challenges and misconceptions of being an independent, highlighting the hard work and dedication required. He also praises the current group of independent MPs, known as the Teals, who he believes are doing a great job in parliament. Wilkie emphasizes that independents can compete with party politicians and bring a fresh perspective to the political landscape. Welcome to the Voices of Franklin podcast. I'm your host, Steve Williams. Today, I talked to independent member for the Tasmanian federal seat of Clark, Andrew Wilkie, who after five election wins, knows something about pleasing voters. Wilkie tells us about how lacklustre most parliamentarians are in Canberra, how good the Teals are by comparison and what it takes for an independent to win a seat. So today we're talking with federal member for Clark, Andrew Wilkie. Andrew Wilkie, welcome to the podcast. An absolute pleasure. Thanks for inviting me to join in. We're here to talk about the independence movement in general and the Voices movement in particular. And if anybody knows about the independence movement and being an independent, it's Andrew Wilkie, who's won five federal elections on the trot as an independent. That's right, isn't it, Andrew? That is, well, you've been kind. I also lost three elections on the trot beforehand. So, well, let's talk about those. You were obviously very interested in politics from a young age. You joined the young Liberals at what? Oh, well, I was a cadet at Duntroon, so I can't remember exactly what year, but I would have been around 18, 19, around that age. I'd grown up in a very conservative family. And of course, Malcolm Fraser was the prime minister in those days. A different Liberal Party to what we have more recently. So I was in them for a couple of years, but then left the young Liberals. And then I wasn't politically active, although interestingly, at the military college, I did a major and sub-major, both in political science. So I had an interest in the political system of Australia and other countries, but I never at that stage envisaged becoming a member of parliament. But even so, when people like me were obsessed with surfing and girls, you were a member of a political party, which does, I think, go to your interest in politics. And those three elections you lost, the first one, you did join the Greens when you left army intelligence. And that's well known. Your opposition to the Iraq war, you joined the Greens, you contested Bennelong against John Howard. I think it was, was it 2004 or 7? 2004, that's right. And he conceded Bennelong. And the good news there is you forced Howard to go to preferences. While you certainly obviously didn't win or come close to winning, that still was an achievement for a Greens candidate in a lower house seat. Then you contested the Senate in Tasmania. But what made you decide to move to Tasmania? Just to dwell on Bennelong for a moment, Steve, I think it was a tremendous achievement for the Greens. We quadrupled the vote from four, we got it up to 16 percent. And that dragged John Howard back to about 49 percent. So he went to preferences and he ended up on about 54 percent. So the Electoral Commission then classified Bennelong as a marginal seat, which is relevant to three years later when Maxine McHugh was looking to run for Labor in a New South Wales marginal Liberal seat. And she saw Bennelong on the list. And of course, we know what happened then because Maxine McHugh beat John Howard at the 2007 election. And that was the end of Mr. Howard. So it was me and the Greens had a, I don't know, we were bit players in quite a bigger story. Yeah, that's right. A failed bid for a seat can often lead to a success the next time around. I think we saw that with Tony Abbott in Moringa. When Zali Stegall of me beat him, whereas in the election before, I just can't remember the chap's name who ran against Abbott, but brought Abbott's vote down considerably. He was a name I can't remember. I can't remember the name of that person. I can't remember his name. But anyway, good point. To answer your question, Steve, about how did I wash up in Tasmania? Well, after that 2004 election, so by this stage, I've blown the whistle on the Iraq war. I've taken the fight up to John Howard electorally. And it was time to really start my life again. Remembering I was on the blackest of blacklists in Canberra. My marriage had collapsed. So I had to start my life again. So I had the opportunity to move to a place I'd long wanted to move to and live in. And so hence I moved to Tasmania with one of my former intelligence colleagues, Kate Burden. And then I, still in the Greens, ran at number two on the Senate ticket, number two to Bob Brown at the 2007 federal election. And we did quite well, actually. If things had been a little bit differently, we might have got two up at that election, but it wasn't it wasn't to be. And then you had a crack at the state seat of Denison, as it would have been back then in 2010, I think it was. And I think you just missed out on the quota then, which turns out to be maybe a good news story, because in that same year, you ran federally at Denison. And of course, well, interesting that A, you were running against a Labour incumbent. That's interesting. And B, you won from third place on the primaries. Well, no, Duncan Kerr was retiring at that election. By the way, I should just dwell for a moment on the state election, because I ran for the Greens at the 2007 federal election. I then left the Greens, so I stood as an independent for the first time at the 2010 state election, missed out by 315 votes. Excuse me, I was the last person excluded after the distribution of preferences and the seat was won by Elise Archer. And it was a blessing in disguise because I was then able to turn around just several months later and go run up against, well, Duncan Kerr was retiring, the Labour Party had parachuted in a really nice fellow, Jonathan Jackson, but they took the seat for granted. They didn't think there was any chance of losing it. Duncan Kerr had been on about a 14 per cent margin, so they didn't focus on the seat. They really didn't support Jonathan very well. I came third on about 21 per cent of the primary vote. Off the top of my head, I think Jonathan got about 38 per cent, the Libs got about 22 per cent, I got 21 per cent, the Greens got 19 per cent. And, of course, the majority of people who voted Greens preferenced me next. I leapt over Liberals and on the Liberal how to vote card, that put me ahead of Labour. So I got most of the Liberal preferences and finished on about 51 per cent, much to everyone's surprise, especially the Labour Party's and me. We're used to independents winning from second spot on the primaries, you know, and getting the preferences to get over the line. It can be done from third spot, although I suspect that's fairly, fairly rare. But obviously, things like that can happen. So all of a sudden, you realise your ambition, your long held ambition. You're a member of federal parliament, must have been a bit lonely there initially. What can you tell us about how you imagined being a federal member versus the reality of being a federal member? I don't know that I had thought much about what to expect. I mean, I knew I had a chance. That was one of the reasons I was running. Although for me, elections were more about having a privileged platform to campaign on issues and trying to achieve some good in that way. But anyway, I did get elected. I was probably not scared. I'm not one to be scared, but I was certainly anxious. You know, I thought I was going to be going up to Canberra and mixing with these political giants, you know, and I would soon be eaten alive. And this might surprise people who are watching this. I got up to Canberra to find it was much more ordinary than I might have expected. These people I thought were political giants, some of them weren't that good. And I found I could keep my head above water. Of course, I was also going into the balance of power because the Greens leader, Adam Bandt, had also been elected, plus Tony Windsor and Rob Oshott and me, the four of us, gave Julia Gillard the numbers to have a one-seat majority and for Tony Abbott to remain the opposition leader. So that had lots of challenges, being in the balance of power with no experience. But as far as an independent being able to compete with these people in Canberra, these big parties with all the resources and all the know-how, frankly, a lot more ordinary than you might think. And independents can compete. And I think we're seeing that in the current parliament where this group of new independents, the so-called Teals, I mean, they tower over many of the people in the government and the opposition. You know, these are people who are every bit as good or better than anyone else and they're doing a great job. I think we all know there's a lot of seat warmers there in Canberra and they basically do as they are told. In many cases, they don't have to think too much because they get their talking points every day. They get their instructions on how to vote. Whereas people like you and all the Teals, for that matter, as you say, you have to look at everything on its merits. And it's a lot of hard work, which is what I was expecting you to say, that the sort of workload that you're suddenly given is quite surprising, maybe, and quite daunting. And I suppose you get deficiencies as you go along, but it's a lot of work. It is a lot of work. It's probably worth pointing out that to be elected as a party member in a safe seat, the challenge is getting the pre-selection by playing the party game so well that you get pre-selected for what is a much sought after candidacy. The actual election itself is pretty straightforward. It's a safe seat. So by definition, once you've been pre-selected, once you've won the party battle, the seat's almost gifted to you. Whereas for an independent, in what is generally a party-based electoral system or parliamentary system, the barrier test isn't the pre-selection, the barrier test is getting elected. And that barrier test is a really tough test. And I think that helps to explain why every member of the crossbench, I think, is pretty good. I mean, even Bob Catter, a real eccentric character from North Queensland, I can't even, he's a friend of mine though, he's a good man. But even someone like Bob Catter, for him to be re-elected time and time and time again, often with a big margin, it goes to the point that he is a very effective operator who represents his community exceptionally well. So I don't see one dud on the crossbench because that barrier test is so tough to get there in the first place. So Cathy McGowan is elected in 2013 on the Voices of Indi phenomena, I suppose it was, in 2013. It was unusual for many reasons. You must have welcomed that. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. Cathy McGowan is an exceptional person. And she, of course, pioneered what we now think of as the Voices for or Voices of model. For her to beat Sophie Mirabella, like all of us, there's always a little bit of good fortune there as well. And the incumbent, Sophie Mirabella, there were reasons for her being increasingly unpopular. But Cathy, to her credit, ran a remarkable grassroots campaign. And I think probably even more remarkably was how, when she went to retire, she was able to pass the baton seamlessly or smoothly to another independent, Helen Haynes. And then once Cathy had left parliament, she was able to take that time or find the time to teach people about this grassroots approach, this way of doing politics differently, which I think more or less was used by every Teal, every so-called Teal. Yeah, so Cathy won twice, then Helen Haynes won twice, culminating in the 2022 election when we saw so many Teals elected. And possibly partly or even largely as a response to the Morrison government. You might have some thoughts on that, whether a unpopular conservative government leads to the loss of conservative, those conservative or historically conservative seats. Well, I think it's self-evident that one of the reasons so many new people joined the crossbench was a blowback or a pushback on Scott Morrison's government. And if that is true, I think it is true, the question is what happens at the next election when you don't have that anti-Morrison sentiment? I mean, regardless of what you think, I'm not here to score points, regardless of what people think about Peter Dutton, I think it's fair to say there's not that almost animus in the community directed at Peter Dutton that was directed at Scott Morrison. I think Scott Morrison is somewhat unknown compared to, sorry, Peter Dutton is somewhat unknown compared to Scott Morrison. There's less reason to want to recoil about his leadership. So where does that leave those conservative independents? Well, we'll know in less than 12 months probably now, but I suspect all of those new independents are of such quality and they've had that advantage of incumbency. I could see them all being re-elected and history certainly shows that once an independent gets in, they can be hard to budge. Once they pass that barrier test I refer to and they get elected, they can be hard to budge. I could see maybe all of the crossbenchers who recontest being re-elected and maybe being joined by a couple more. Yeah, that last point's an interesting one. If people expect this voices movement, this teal avalanche to continue, they might be a bit disappointed at the next federal election because we've got a Labour government in situ and so there won't be that reaction against the Scott Morrison or the Tony Abbott types. We won't know until it happens. That's right, so we won't know. But we've got something else going on as well that might offset what you've just described, is regardless of Scott Morrison, I think there is genuinely a drift away from the old political parties and an open-mindedness to back alternatives. And that might result in more teals. And when I think of teals, I think of a conservative with a big heart, because that's probably what the teals are. They're all somewhat conservative, but they've all got an interest in humanity and climate change, integrity measures. But I could see seats currently held by the Labour Party being at risk. They've got a lot of seats on small margins. Well, in Tasmania, which is what we're mostly interested in, if there is anything like a teal seat, it's Clark being the urban Hobart seat. Then comes Franklin, I suppose, is the next likely one, the next, well, somewhat of a left-leaning seat federally. But of course, you've got to have the right candidate. That's obviously critical. And these people are hard to find, Andrew. I'm looking. They are incredibly thin on the ground. But you don't see yourself as a teal. That seems to be what you're saying. You see yourself as a different kind of independent. Well, I tend to think of teals as a conservative. I mean, the teal colour apparently is a combination of blue and green, apparently. So I tend to have a fairly narrow theoretical understanding of a teal. More broadly, I would just use the word independent. Yeah. Sometimes teals are described as socially progressive, but economically conservative. Yeah. Socially progressive, I think we can all understand. You know, they want, therefore, same-sex marriage, therefore human rights, therefore stronger democracy and all the things that go with that. Get rid of the corruption, reduce the lobbying, the pork-barrelling, all the stuff everyone hates. Except some of them. OK, that's easy. Then we get to this, they're economically conservative. That's where we can get into some interesting debates about what that really means or whether that's even good under a traditional understanding. No one wants to waste money, but we can get into a complicated conversation about neoliberalism and balanced budgets or surpluses. And this is when the economists start having big fights. Is that what you meant by conservative? Yeah, and hence I would be, I'm to the left of the teals. I'd say the teals are right of centre. I call myself centre, although people who know me call me a lefty. So, although in Australia, anyone to the left of centre-right is a lefty. We haven't had any real lefties since Gough Whitlam. OK, can I just dwell on a point you made earlier, Steve, about Tasmania? I mean, Clarke is for now at least a solid independent seat. Bridget Archer was to stand as an independent. I'd give her a chance of winning at Bass. But you're right, it's Franklin which is the other really interesting seat, and I think a vulnerable seat, because although Julie Collins, and I've got a lot of time for Julie Collins, and she's on a very healthy margin, but if an independent candidate came along of high quality, high colour, who had good grassroots support, and who could collect votes across the political spectrum, I mean, it'd be no good for that independent candidate to just be going after the Greens' votes, or just be going after the Liberal Party votes. But the sort of candidate who could collect votes across the spectrum, I mean, that's really the only way to beat a strong incumbent. And get those Liberal preferences when it goes to preferences. Yeah, get preferences for everyone. I think Julie Collins is potentially vulnerable. Her margin has come down at the last election. We assume she'll run again, but we don't know that. I think she's been in Parliament for a similar time to you. Yeah, I think one more term than me, I think. One more term than you. And as the Housing and Homelessness Minister, I think she's a disaster. And so she's vulnerable, even though she takes her instructions from Cabinet and Treasury probably, she hasn't got a hope in hell of fixing that problem. Because they either don't identify the causes, the root causes, or they're afraid to talk about the root causes and address them. I think she is vulnerable, but I make the point again, she's not vulnerable to the Liberal Party candidate. She's not vulnerable to the Greens candidate. While there's just the three, she's in a very safe seat. It would have to be someone who, I don't want to labour this point, because it's very clear to me, and certainly the reason for my own success is, the only way to get enough votes is to get votes across the spectrum and then get everyone's preferences. That's the way to crack a safe seat. I make the point again, 2010, Labor went into the election in Denison on a 14% margin. But at the election, the Labor candidate got 38, Liberals got 22, I got 21, Greens got 90. And I was able to sort of surf home by everyone. For a start, I had to get ahead of one of the major parties. So I had to be ahead of the Greens and I was. And then you're on the way of getting everyone's preferences home. I think that's a good model for winning a safe seat where the other two parties can't win. Terrific. Well, if you want to help us find a fantastic candidate for Franklin and voices of Franklin, that would be fantastic. We've only got two minutes left, Andrew Wilkie. What are some of your ideas for the future, your passions for the future, your goals for the future for both this term in Parliament and the next? Well, my top goal has always been my community. And I think I've explained how I got into Parliament, but to explain how I think I've survived, and I'm now on a 21% margin, I think I was about the same last election. It's because we have always seen our number one focus as the local community and helping the local community. That's actually more important than what we do in Canberra. And that's the voices model as well, isn't it? Yes, indeed. Indeed. But having said all that, I do go to Canberra and I've always had some real flagship issues, obviously gambling reform, asylum seekers, climate change, a more independent foreign security policy. Salmon farming, you've come out against strongly recently. Against what? Salmon farming. Oh, yes, yes, yes. No, I'm very critical of that. Although that, of course, is more of a state government matter. But I think it's also been important for me to give voice to my community, even on state matters. Any final quick thoughts on the Tasmanian election coming up? We've only got 30 seconds. Oh, I'm not going to bet my last 50 cents on it. I think it's going to be some surprises and it's anyone's guess what's going to happen. Won't be a majority government, though. I'll pretend it won't be a majority government, but that's how I feel about it. No, you can bet your house on that. Thanks so much, Andrew Wilkie, for joining us on this podcast and we'll hopefully talk to you sometime down the track. Thank you. Good on you. Thanks, Steve.