#3 Eloise Carr on Tasmanian polling

The Australia Institute Tasmania is an independent think tank that conducts research on various public policy areas. They focus on democracy and accountability, environmental law and policy reform in Tasmania. They conducted statewide polling in 2021 and found that many Tasmanians distrust the Integrity Commission and support truth in political advertising laws and a ban on political donations from the gambling industry. They also found support for improving the Integrity Commission's design to include public hearings. In 2022, they polled on environmental concerns, emissions reduction targets, and salmon farming, with a majority of respondents expressing concern for the health of coastal waterways and supporting a pause on salmon farming until the parliamentary inquiry had reported. They also found support for the federal government matching Tasmania's net zero emissions target by 2030. More recent polling in 2023 was done by UCOM and focused on voting intentions. The Australia Instit Welcome to the Voices of Franklin podcast. I'm your host Steve Williams and today I'm talking to Eloise Carr from the Australia Institute Tasmania. Today we're joined by Eloise Carr who runs the Tasmanian office of the Australia Institute. Eloise Carr, welcome to the podcast. Hi Steve, thanks for having me. Eloise, what's your official title there at the Australia Institute? I'm the director of the Tasmanian branch, so you got it right basically. And the Australia Institute is a progressive think tank or research establishment I think. We prefer independent actually. We're completely independent. We don't accept funding from political parties or the government. So yeah, we're an independent think tank and we undertake research across a range of public policy areas, economics, social, environmental. In Tasmania we have two main streams of research. They include democracy and accountability, so things like political donations and how we can strengthen our integrity commission and truth in political advertising laws has been a really key focus of ours over the last few years, several years really since the branch was established. The Tasmanian branch has been around now for about six years. Yeah, so maybe seven years actually this year. Anyway, and then the other area is environmental law and policy reform at the Tasmanian state level. So we've been instrumental in getting the state of the environment report back on the agenda, which is due to come out in the middle of this year, and as well as looking into marine management and marine protection and fixing the salmon industry. Yeah. While we're on that subject, the last Tasmanian state of the environment report was published in 2009 and it's meant to come out every five years. So that's a big black mark against Tasmanian governments. We've missed two. Hopefully it will come out this year. They have promised to bring it out this year. Yeah, that's right. We threatened to take legal action. It is actually legally required in Tasmanian law to be produced every five years. So we looked into it and we wrote to the planning minister responsible and basically said, you know, you need to do this. It's a legal requirement. And, you know, after some to-ing and fro-ing and some debate in parliament, at the end of 2022, he gave a directive to the Tasmanian Planning Commission to get on with the job of writing the report and told them that it had to be done by the 30th of June 2024. So what's that? Five months away now. So yeah, we're looking forward to seeing that. Although I say that with some trepidation because obviously the national report that came out in 2022 was dire and so it's unlikely to be good news. But at least if we know what's going on at a Tasmanian state level, then we can do something about it as opposed to not knowing for the last, well, like you say, the last report was in 2009. So it's going to be a decade late when it comes out. Yeah, there's now a long series of federal environment reports that paint an increasingly bleak picture so we can predict. Unfortunately, with a reasonable certainty that the Tasmanian one won't be that good either. Anything else you'd like to say about the Australia Institute, Eloise, before we get into the main business? No, I'm happy to kick off. As I was saying, you know, we research public policy and then when we have policy ideas, we like to test those ideas with the community. We do that through hosting events and holding public discussions about our research and we also do attitudinal surveys or polling, which as I understand, you're keen to dig into in a bit more detail today. Yeah, exactly. So you're mainly here to tell us what the Australia Institute knows about Tasmanian attitudes to a range of things. I think we start in 2021. You've got some information for us on attitudes in Bass and Braddon. I presume you did these in the lead up to the last federal election in 2022. Yeah, 2021 was actually statewide polling and we asked a range of questions as part of our Democracy and Accountability program. We polled in April and June of 2021 and then I think the Braddon poll that you're referring to was actually in 2022 during the federal election campaign. So we can come to that in a minute. Yeah, so we found quite a significant level of concern, one in two Tasmanians distrust the Integrity Commission's ability to uncover and prevent misconduct in public administration, including 19.6% or basically 20% who strongly distrust and only a third trusted its ability to do its job. Yeah, that was one of the key findings from the June polling. The April 2021 polling we asked about truth in political advertising. So we've asked about these laws a number of times now and we consistently get incredibly high levels of support for truth in political advertising laws. There's been a number of examples over the years of exaggerated claims by all political parties really about what either their own policies will achieve or what other parties' policies might do. So it's not surprising that there's a really high level of support for such laws. And that's statewide? Yeah, this is statewide, 87%. And it's consistently around that figure. We also asked about a ban on political donations from the gambling industry. That came out at over seven in 10 Tasmanians supported that or 73%. And again, we asked about the Tasmanian Integrity Commission. In this instance, it was about undergoing structural change so that it does improve, it does hold public hearings. So the Integrity Commission can hold public hearings, but it never has. And obviously, it's a really important part of the justice being done to be seen to be being done, if that makes sense. So over 80% of Tasmanians or four in five supported improving the design of the Integrity Commission so that it would hold full inquiries with public hearings. So again, we've asked that a number of times and that keeps coming out with a vast majority of support. For those to be held. Yeah. Of course, we do have quite a few state Integrity Commissions around the place and now a federal Integrity body, although the federal one's very new, but we can compare, can't we? We can compare the robustness or the transparency of all these different Integrity Commissions to see if Tasmania's up to scratch. We actually think this Integrity Commission is so dysfunctional that we really need to just start again from scratch and design a fit for purpose Tasmanian Integrity Commission. So that's one of the recommendations coming out of our research. And there was some polling done about this time on Bridget Archer, who was in the news a lot back then for crossing the floor. Yeah, actually, I haven't got that poll in front of me. I apologise. She was the federal Liberal member for Bass. Yes, and I do remember we did poll a question on that and whilst I don't have the figure in my head, it was the majority support for what she's been doing, absolutely. Yeah. She did increase her vote at the last federal election, only slightly, but she did against the trend for Liberal incumbents. So she must be doing something right just based on those voting figures. Okay, Louise, we move on to 2022 now. You've got quite a range of polling for that year. Yeah, so that was the federal election, as you may recall. We polled Braddon. And again, there was questions around environmental concerns, also emissions reductions targets. And we always ask about voting intentions as well because that gives an insight into what Tasmanians are thinking about that. And again, we do tend to repeat our questions a bit because one survey doesn't necessarily tell you a lot. But if you can see a trend developing over a number of surveys, then that gives you a bit more of an indication about what people are thinking. So once again, we've asked a number of times around whether Tasmanians are concerned about the health of their environment and their coastal environment as well. And we consistently get around 76% of respondents that are concerned or very concerned about the health of their coastal waterways. So we asked that question then, and yes, it came out of that figure. We also asked about salmon farming in that survey. And you might recall that was when the parliamentary inquiry was ongoing. At that point, it hadn't reported. And we had a figure of 63% of Tasmanians that wanted a pause until the outcomes of that parliamentary inquiry had been reported on and implemented. So that was a pretty clear majority as well there. And another one we asked about the federal government matching the Tasmanian net zero by 2030 emissions target. And that was 67% agreed with that. That's a very interesting result there on net zero by 2030. That is in fact the Tasmanian government's position at the moment, is it? Our policy? Yeah, we have that legislated now as a statewide target. But that particular survey then was asking about whether we should have it at a federal level. I'm just looking at what else we asked at that time. Sorry. You're all right. Yeah. Funding for the ABC was? Yes. Now, was that that one? I've got that. Oh gosh, where is that? Have you got that figure in front of you? I remember we asked that question. I don't, but don't stress too much because hopefully we'll be able to post links to your published reports so people will be able to get the exact figures. Yes. All of these are on our website and you can just type in Tasmanian polling and it'll come up when you get to our website. So easy enough to find and apologies. I did pull that out but now I can't find it. That's fine. Shall we move on to slightly more recent history? Yeah, let's move on to, I guess, 2023 polling. And I suppose we should say this is all done by Ucom. You commission that firm to do your polling? That's right. So we don't undertake any of the polling ourselves. It's all done by independent polling companies and we are a member of the Australian Polling Council, which means we sign up to meeting all the guidelines that they have agreed are at the most ethical and appropriate way to undertake polling. So that means statistically significant sample size, appropriate margins of error, and completely independent, and also not asking leading questions, things like that. Yeah. Okay Louise, if you want to now take us through these latest polling results any way you'd like. Yeah, okay. So yeah, in 2023 we undertook a couple of polls, one in April and one in August. There was a strong environmental theme to these. We got, again, the 76% concerned about the health of Tasmania's coastal environment. We got, this is the statewide poll, more than seven in 10 Tasmanians supported the parliamentary inquiry recommendation to remove or reduce inshore salmon farming and ceasing operations in sensitive sheltered and biodiverse waters. One in two Tasmanians were not confident that the law reforms that were underway at the time, they're still underway, would do enough to protect the health of Tasmania's waters. And then we asked a number of questions around what Tasmanians would support by way of strengthening marine protection. So this is around the time when the flathead stocks had collapsed. The reductions in recreational catch were being announced. And so we thought, let's test the waters, so to speak, to see what Tasmanians are prepared to support. And yeah, we found that 80% were prepared to support one or more of the management actions that we proposed, including reducing catch limits, protecting fish nurseries, an immediate ban on recreational gill netting, or all of the above. And in fact, all of the above got the highest number of responses. And only 5.5% of respondents did not support any of those measures. Yes. So obviously, there's a range of problems there from overfishing of various kinds to salmon farming and its effects on particularly sensitive waterways. Was there any polling there, particularly on Macquarie Harbour? Yes. So in August of last year, we polled Franklin. And again, very consistent figure around that concern for the coast. 76% again were either concerned or very concerned. We also asked the same question about the parliamentary inquiry recommendation around salmon farming operations in sensitive shelters and biodiverse areas. And we found three in four Franklin voters, or 74% supported that. Now, this is really significant because Franklin is the electorate that is immediately adjacent to the highest density of fish farms in Tasmania. So they know what it's like living next to a fish farm and what it's doing to their local waterways. And we asked in that survey about support for stopping fish farming where it risks the extinction of the Moorjean skate. So obviously, that's about what's going on in Macquarie Harbour. And we had a majority of respondents that supported that, so 56%. We also asked about what respondents felt was the most urgent issue that needed action to protect Tasmania's marine life. And we found that the highest ranked response was the impact of salmon farming and fish farming. And that came out as one in three Franklin voters that chose that particular option. And that included climate change and other impacts now that I can't quite remember, sorry, but it included a range of options. And yeah, the salmon farming impacts were the highest ranked. Yeah, because just on climate change, we believe that warming of the waters has had a very bad effect on algae and seagrass in the whole Tasmanian region, really, with this. And something like- Yeah, particularly the East Coast. So there's a marine heatwave happening off the East Coast of Tasmania. It has been happening this summer. And the impacts of that are being felt. And we know, for example, that that's what's caused the decimation of the giant kelp forests. Over 95% of those forests are gone now from the East Coast of Tasmania. And it's also brought down the centristephanus long-spined sea urchin, which is causing the urchin barrens on the East Coast as well. So yeah, and then the last time we had a heatwave, if it was anything like this, it had a massive impact on abalone and oyster farms. And of course, that affects jobs and so on. So yeah, this is one of the reasons why we've been putting such a focus on our research on marine policy reforms and improving management of our coastal waters. Tasmania's main marine law is 30 years old next year, and it's never been reviewed. So the government undertook to, they committed to review that law several years ago now during COVID. And they started and then it just, like a number of things, seems to have dropped off the agenda of this government more recently. So Eloise Carr, if somebody was a politician in Tasmania or was a candidate for the next Tasmanian election, and they wanted to reflect what people wanted in Tasmania, or what the majority of Tasmanians wanted, what sort of policies would they be bringing forward on the marine environment, based on the figures you got? Well, we think that this builds a very clear message that people support the science. The science is telling us we need to take action to protect our fish stocks, to look after the environment, to help it build resilience towards climate change impacts. And of course, we need to address the impacts of salmon farming, which is about to cause the extinction of a species on the west coast of Tasmania, the modene skate. It's been around since the dinosaurs, and this looks like this industry is without action, without change, is looking like causing the extinction of this species that's been around since the Gondwana era. It's a world heritage value. Part of Macquarie Harbour is within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. So yeah, I think it's very clear that Tasmanians support the government taking action to protect the marine environment and to look after it. Okay, Eloise, we've only got a few minutes to go. What else about the electorate of Franklin that you might have figures on? Sure. I think that might be about it for Franklin. We have only polled Franklin once, and that was with that fairly salmon-focused survey. There was a lot of reaction happening to what was going on with the west coast and the modene skate and impacts of fish farms. So yeah, that's the main findings from the Franklin poll, of course, unless you want to talk about voting intentions, but it's the last year, so things have probably changed a bit since then. That's right. We do have an election coming in about five weeks. It's fair to say Tasmania doesn't get a lot of polling compared to the mainland. We get the EMRS polling about once every three months, and that's due, I think, in a couple of weeks, which will be interesting. We got a UGA poll for the first time in the first week of January, and then you, using UCOMS, do some polling as well. Can you quickly summarize, Eloise, your latest polling on voting intentions, Tasmania? Oh, well, we haven't polled for almost a year on statewide voting intentions. So yeah, that might be a little out of date, but well, April last year, it was sitting around 40% for the Liberals, around 30% for Labor, 14% for the Greens, and 7% for both Independent and Undecided. But as you say, there was a more recent UGOV poll in January, and that put the Liberals at 31%, Labor at 27%, the Jackie Lambie Network at 20%, Greens at 15%, and Independents at 7%. It is going to be an interesting election because we will have 35 members of the House of Assembly this time around, up from 25. So there'll be two new members for each of the five electors, and you won't need to get as many votes to get into Parliament. So be really interested to see what happens. Okay. Thanks very much, Eloise. Any closing comments you'd like to make? No, thanks very much for having me. It was a pleasure to have you. People will be able to go to the Australia Institute website to get precise figures on all this stuff or get reminders. But with those closing words, we'll say goodbye, Eloise Carr, and thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me, Steve. See you later.