week 1 outlook

The speaker discusses their process of analyzing NFL games and making betting predictions. They mention looking at the lines, preseason records, and previous performance of teams. They also discuss their thoughts on specific games, such as the Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons. They mention potential betting opportunities and their leaning towards certain teams. They also talk about their overall strategy and considerations for over/under bets. mics already working and you just got to adjust however you want to do it. I just got us recording right now while we figure out how we want to do this. So you want to go by each game first based on the ESPN app. You want to hear actually... I don't know why you want to go over like this preview. What do you mean like the preview for the okay well let's let's get this computer on right here on the games and the matchups like I don't know what where the line is who you would use covers to see where the line is and see where we're moved or do you know what what website what was I use because you can put that on spread do you want to try and put that on that laptop where you go with your phone I mean if you're better off with your phone and that's cool I just want okay just get more comfortable though with you having a laptop like in front of you so you can just write you know move through it a little bit easier I'll try and do the same but at least have to have them already so we can transition a lot easier okay well let's just start with picking is this game is this also these are the two games they're going to get each other okay and then maybe like when you'd like the team if you do like one just take that paper and I'll take the other one you just give me one that you want to talk about and then I can then I can go off the other one and kind of give a you know for where we're opposing each other or devil's advocate no if anything it's just like what we feel and then if there's something that we want to talk about we can just do that I want to put off also their preseason record and they're scoring so I guess I'll bring up ESPN for that so I can have yeah that's something to factor in yeah who are they playing and paid and all that stuff now yeah now the next shit is like the fucking the first week I mean what 10 days yeah so busy whatever we're gonna go prior to this you know okay just have an idea of what what to what's the next what's the next game we're gonna talk about before we we start talking about it like it's already like ready and then let's try you haven't like taking over the transitioning to the games and then trying to get me in there and see how that works and just kind of play with it while I roll this blunt of this Ojos Mota so yeah whenever you're ready yeah so basically we're getting trying to get a feel for the team's gonna go into the season you know once the season starts everything moves fast so it's a lot of prep so reading this basically the analysis what I'm doing is what I do is when when it's just when the schedule is released and made that's when that's when uh that's when the work the work starts for the Sharks whatever they're going to do so the main thing I look at is like the lines just because yeah one week one can set the tone for a season it's also usually the easiest yeah why would you say it's the easiest though because I'm it's there's a lot of data that's just not there yeah you know the injuries or their expectations yeah like there's like for example week one there's a bunch of like small spreads which for me I'll say right now it's 300 I might adjust it so I'll try to find a little uh mine certain data points so what I did I broke a game so I'll do this just for games that we did put on our card last year which just to see how much that factors in if I want to keep doing that data or not I think that's good data to use because it kind of gives us a perspective of where we're at and what team is really good. Hell of a start, let's put it that way. Nobody really knows. As far as a three and anything up, I don't know how you'd break that down, but as far as getting the best number, it's more of a dead area between threes. Let's just go over these teams and see what we got. I mean obviously these aren't going to be. I'll say yeah I mean it's been six and a half, it's been bouncing between six and six and a half really, mostly been six and a half which seems like the right number to me. I mean it's rare that you get really a good betting opportunity on the Chiefs, which I mean this isn't going to be on the card. But one thing I did notice, I mean the Chiefs are definitely a team you want to go against if you're betting, which you know if you're a square better that sounds ridiculous. But I mean the better, all their lines are inflated. I mean they were 14 and 3 straight up. They were, I don't know I think they won like 6 or 7 games. Well that's a spread. If they're lucky, if they're lucky. They had a lot of games. A couple of them were really small. One thing to go with that, all of their games are fucking close. I think every one of their fucking games was like a single score. The fuck did I say that? I thought I was on sharps here too. Yeah and I want to say as far as the preseason goes, they're both 2 and 1. They both won their last game. Again that doesn't really say much. I didn't really take too much info on the preseason. But what I will say about that line at 6 and a half is that it's begging you, it's begging the squares to pick Kansas City. I mean they were the champs. And they want you to get that under 7 because they think you got value there, which is probably not good value. Yeah, most likely right now I'm on Detroit. I'm probably leaning Detroit. But it's not even going to be on the card. Nah. Well who knows? A lot can change in a week. Yeah, I mean I know you're high on Detroit. So I mean if there's an overrated spot for them to get, you know, I guess homeworld if their expectations are high. Well my thing is it's at Kansas City. One thing is Detroit has never proved that they're a good road team. If this was at home, I would probably choose otherwise. I don't know where the line started, but now that I think about it, I mean them going to Arrowhead right after that Sunday night game. And they're getting prime time. That's a lot to ask for the Detroit who typically start slow. Yeah, Detroit's a team I want to wait a little bit for. Yeah. So their prime time period is a thousand and three. I want to see if they get some smaller spreads, see if they cover. I mean they don't have a lot of other spots really where they're a dog as much as they're used to. I mean this is their biggest number of seasons at this point, which could change obviously. But yeah, they're. Well you know what you're getting. Scheduled, so that's why I know you were big on the under. I think it was nine and a half. I mean I'm going at that too, but I'm right there at nine just because this division, I don't trust anybody in this division. So just right now, I'm mostly, I'm kind of looking at this like the NCAA tournament where I'm building it off of chalk and I'm seeing where kind of the sharper bets, the ones I can pick off. That's right. Those are, we'll see. Yeah. We'll just see what kind of numbers we get in Vegas at that. I know we talked about over unders. Then we had a few just to recap. So I like the Cowboys over, the Bucks under, and I know I had the Titans under. Right, yeah, six and a half. Has anything changed since then? Six and a half. Yeah, I probably should have said the Texans won too. They're like six and a half. Yeah, I don't know how I went from the Duke to over unders. Those are probably, like I want ones where there's a lot of value for them to be one of the worst teams or one of the best teams. Well, not only that, you got to put your money and invest in something that you won't even get paid out for a few months down the road. So that's why none of them stand out to me enough except for the Pittsburgh Steelers, the over on that one. I think eight and a half is a good, safe to say they're going to overcome that. Anything else? But right now the big is, it's square, but the big is also super high. From what I've heard, the Cowboys is actually a sharp play. From people I've heard from, we might want to go see, I guess, Fedrick and whoever. All right, well, I mean, again, Kansas City, you know what they are. Detroit, we don't know what exactly they are yet. So we'll just go ahead and pass in a moment. Yeah, so we'll go Carolina, Atlanta. So this one. Give me one of those sheets. Yeah, you can take that one. You like Atlanta? Yeah, I'll do Atlanta here. This is, normally just looking at this blind, when I first look at this, it's like I always like the underdog in this spot. But the more I dug into it. What's the spread? How about that? Let's start out with this one. Two and a half. This one is going to be my closest call. This could be, I mean, it's open at two and a half. It's gone up to three and a half because the sharps like Atlanta. You know, yeah, the more I look at it, I agree with that because at first I was just like, why is this spread? Like I always thought this would have been like one and a half and maybe this would, Carolina might even be the favorite. But when I looked into the numbers, so the Falcons, I mean, they weren't as bad as, you know, they were kind of a mediocre team. And, you know, they added pieces. They added B. John Robinson. They added, what's the latest, Campbell, I think. Yeah, so the offense, their offensive line isn't as bad either. They have weapons. Like Kyle Pitts is probably, talent-wise, probably the best tight end. Yeah, but you can have all of the. So, yeah, and I'm looking at this with Carolina. I mean, they have a rookie quarterback, a new coach. And, yeah, I feel like Atlanta also looked at home last year. Atlanta was a pretty good home team. So I feel, yeah, I mean, eight and a half, that's telling you, I mean, it's got to be close there. So I'll probably say, yeah, I mean, that's where we would be coming from like this. But I guess I don't know. This is a game. I also like always fucking on this game every year, Carolina-Atlanta. I'm always on the wrong side. It's always a, yeah, it's always a coin flip. So I don't know if I would. And their division three, it seems like the right number. If nothing stands out, if I'm going to play something, it's because it stands out. So we're good on both going in. Let's see, we'll go. Just move those out and move them on. Here. You got the Detroit Lions out the way, too. So, yeah. So the next one is Houston and Baltimore. Do you want to just go through like this list right here? Yeah, I'll give you some of Houston and Baltimore. Yeah, so, I mean, this is. Oh, I'm high on Baltimore. Yeah, this is the biggest spread of week one. I mean, it's ten. They opened at nine and a half. Most of the money is on Baltimore, which isn't really surprising. But, I mean, this is such a big number. But really, Baltimore is usually a team that had a good feel on. They just, they weren't last year. They were a little bit, they didn't cover big spreads as much as they did. And when Lamar got hurt, it was, you know, a lot of smaller spreads. So, there's so many points. I mean, you can go ahead and argue this. Because I feel like Houston, I'll just say one thing. Houston, I feel like they're, the teams that are bad, they don't know they're bad yet, like they're going to play it hard. I just feel like that's a lot of points. But, you know, they could also just, you know, new coach, they need a new coach, new quarterback. So, Baltimore, you know, if they're hyped up and on their game, they could wax. But, I'll let you go ahead. Yeah, well, so they were ten and seven last year. And being ten and seven and having one of the worst injured squads in the whole year, that says a lot. I think that they should have probably won more, like, 12 games. So, I think Baltimore is a lot more better team than they showed last year. They're top five most injured in running back, defensive line, and defensive back, which is key players when it comes to their teams. You know, the only other better players that you need to have is the left tackle and, you know, offensive, yeah, left tackle. So, like, key positions they lost, and it wasn't just one, it was cluster injuries. So, that'll say that. That'll say that. They ranked number one in NFL and blended fourth quarter win probability and lost all four games by only a total of eight points. So, this could really have been an even better team than what it was on paper. It could have been easily 14 and three. So, what's different now? They made a big coaching hire while adding the OC, Todd Monken, from Georgia. His vertical pass games and up-tempo offense is going to bring something more to the table that Baltimore already does have. So, not only has Baltimore been really good, you know, with the run attack, you know, and the threat of Lamar Jackson, now they actually have a passing attack that's going to be, now you really have to be on your toes with them. And you've got Texans who are probably dead last in one, talent, and two, defense. They hired a defensive coach to try and fix this, but they still need defensive players. And with Baltimore and the way they like to bully people, especially early, and Lamar's healthy, I think this is the easy pick for minus ten. That's why our minus nine, if it's gone up, I'd rather get it now. I think it's going to go up to ten and a half and get the people who aren't sure and would rather bet Texans. So, Baltimore is probably going to be something that I'm going to put on my first week. But a lot of things can change since then. But Baltimore is one of my best bets that I do like. All right, so next game we've got Bengals and Browns. This one, yeah, this is last week. My wife called. Favorite square, excuse me, favorite square of rod. So we asked him, yeah, so who do you like most? And he said, yeah, I'm going to go with the Bengals, yeah. Super square. Super square. Big Bengals, yeah, they were a lot of square metrics they came up with. So they faced a leak out of seven backups. Let's see. Their roster, the only thing they really did is upgrade it with Orlando Browns. They needed their offense. What it is, is the one thing I would say is they feel a lot like when New England was in their prime, they had a lot of small spreads just because somebody gave them against credit or Joe Burrow credit for, you know, it's not like professional homes. I mean, they just didn't play. They don't really do that with the Bengals. So there were a lot of games where they were like, was it against the Titans? They were like one and a half. Like the Bucs and the Patriots, they were like three, three and a half. But, Paul, let's look at what's in front of us, okay? Joe Burrow is not going to be 100%. Okay, we're talking about not what they're going to be doing for the season. Let's talk about what they're going to do for this game. It's game one. Burrow's probably not going to play. Right now they are a two-and-a-half underdog at home, you know. Yeah, it dropped from two-and-a-half to one-and-a-half. So it's already. It dropped since the Burrow injury, though. I mean, I think it went down. It's going to keep dropping, bro. So, yeah, it's just. The thing with this is, yeah, this is such a square five. Yeah, I really. But the Browns, I don't know. I like the potential of the Browns. I just don't know what they've got as a quarterback. I mean, it seems like they're always a team. It's what if. They do play the Bengals well. So, I mean, it's a division game. Well, last year, Cleveland, they faced one of the top ten difficult schedules last year. And 11 of their opponents succeeded their preseason win total, third most in the NFL. So they actually played quite a bit of a good schedule. And if you remember, the Browns, they were one of our worst teams to bet last year. We couldn't get them right. And, actually, the thing is, we had them right for most of the game. It's they actually blew it at the end. And, you know, one of that being they have one of the worst defensive ranked EPA against the run. So, you know, if people can run all over you, they always have a chance. They did get Elijah Moore. They signed Marcus Goodwin and drafted Cedric Tillman. So they got two pass rushers as well to go with Myles Garrett. They beefed up the D-line to help improve one of the worst front defenses. So I think maybe they can get that fixed. Yeah. I mean, they definitely had a sharp square game. Yeah. Another one. Well, so you're saying sharp being Cleveland. Sharp being Cleveland, though, right? Yeah, Cleveland would definitely be the sharp side. So, I mean, that's either Cleveland or Bust. But, you know, that's what the angles are. Look, even if Burrell plays, he's limited. It's a quad injury. Those are the ones that you do not necessarily hurt, but you get injured and you can't. You know, when you think you can run, boom, there goes the hammy sniper. So I think they're going to be real cautious on it. They don't need to win right away. They've proven that they can win late. Number one seed, that's the goal, man. I wouldn't say all that. I mean, they've gone into the arrowhead and beat them. So I don't think – I think being healthy and getting there is the number one priority, not necessarily number one seed. Because they're going to fall flat trying to get the number of seeds because Burrell's proved that he can't stay healthy. Although he's good, so they've got to baby him while he's injured. I like Cleveland, but we'll continue. Moving on. January's in cold. This is easy. This is going to be on my best bet. I already know. Yeah, this has been going – this has been three and a half for most of summer now until last weekend. We're just going to take it around the sharp moves. I think this is one. So this is up to four and a half. So it's gone up? Yeah. Wait, minus four and a half or plus – Minus three? Yeah, I'm seeing four and a half right now. Really? Because I like the Colts. You like the Colts. I like the Colts. Well, one, I like the Colts because they – are they starting Richardson? Are they – They're starting Richardson, yeah. They're starting Richardson. We haven't seen much of Richardson preseason, and I think that's for a reason. They're trying to not show their hand. He's a mobile quarterback. He's a head coach who's actually – let me see. He has – let me see who this coach is because I know – oh, this coach is the – yeah, there you go. The Eagles offensive coordinator from last year who made Hurts into a pretty much MVP candidate. So to say that he's Hurts, I mean, that's far-fetched, but he's got the offense to make him look better than what he actually is. They're going to do a lot of run plays that you haven't seen in the preseason, so they're going to surprise people in the beginning. That's where I think he has the biggest impact immediately in the highest floors due to his playmaking ability. What are some of their metrics, though? Well, let's put it this way. Since 2010, among the first-round QBs who started at least nine games in the rookie season, four of the top five best rookie EPA seasons came from QBs who used their legs, Dak, RG3, Russ, Cam. So he falls right in that category. The Colts, they play fast this year. I trust that Steejun will also bring in decision-making from Philly. I expect the Colts to play fast this year, especially early in the game, try to jump out to leads like they did – the Eagles did in the beginning. So Eagles played with the fastest pace in the NFL in the first half of the season and threw the ball at the fourth-highest rate on first downs. So there's a lot of things that are good with the Colts that I think that Jacksonville, they – I think they're overrated. You don't think they figured it out now after last season? You think that was a fluke? I just think that they're going to start off hot because – Look, Jacksonville's missing their starting left tackle, Cam Robinson, due to suspension. That's huge. Yeah, they're off the line. It's shaky, and it just lost their best left tackle. So – I don't know. I think they're – I think this is a real team, though. No, don't get me wrong. Jacksonville's a real team. I mean, why would this move like that, though? Right? It's moving in the opposite direction that I'm trying to – Well, I mean, I have a theory why, but – What's your theory? You want to hear it now? Why not? Well, like I said, this is – This is us talking right now, you know? Yeah, but this is a human element, and it's a motivation. I mean, we saw this – Remember last year, the Jaguars, they played Houston at the end of the season. I felt like that was an obvious blowout because they were going to get their shit together for losing straight up before. And then last year, this was – Like the game, they went to Indianapolis. They blew that game. That was like – Yeah, like that was a big – Like that was one of the luckiest covers of the year. So I feel like they – This would be on point here. Like I said, I mean, unless they're – This would be flat. If this is – Look, there's always a surprise game, team, whatever you want to call it, week one that just surprises everybody. And it could be even fluky at that, or it could be the real deal. This is one. Collin was high-fiving this shit up. What, Indianapolis? Yeah. Was he? Oh, there you go. Thank you, Collin. I like the Colts. We'll see. So we're going – Jacksonville, let's just say Jacksonville. I hate both these teams. Well, let me just go right here. Jacksonville, you know that's a square pick. Yeah. You're just not willing to back up the Colts is what it is. I would tell them go in square, one pick or two. I mean, especially at the beginning of the season, I mean, we had – we had Baltimore against the Jets, and then – well, we were fading the Jets. And then we had Bengals, we faded those too. I don't know how much that matters. But that's really the only kind of thing that I would say is a negative. But like I said, yeah, I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if they shit themselves. I mean, I'm looking at the numbers. I would say that's why it's moving up. So next we've got Tampa Bay, Minnesota. Yeah, this is a six-and-a-half. It actually went down to six. I haven't seen this move at all. So some sharks coming down to Tampa Bay, which probably could be – everybody knows the Minnesota Alps. Well, Baker Mayfield's been looking good. Well, I mean, just by default, I would say, yeah, this fading Minnesota would be a play. Like I said, this is – if this is later in the season, we get more values. Like I said, right now this is probably a right number. Like I said, we'll see Tampa Bay, you know, they might – they're probably – you know, these teams play harder later in the season. But, you know, if they lose this by three, you know, that might start changing. Just see how – Minnesota, just for right now, I'm not having this at the bottom of my car every week because I can't figure this team out. So, yeah, you want to weigh my opinion on Minnesota? Go ahead. I'm trading Minnesota all year. Tampa Bay, I'm not too interested either. Just looking at this. I'm one to – if Minnesota's getting points. I mean, Minnesota, yeah, they lost Alvin Cook. They lost him. You know, just like defense really, you get better. I'm sure they lost Marius Smith. Well, you said it right there. The defense has not gotten better. They're one of the worst in the league. I mean, they beat like an over on Minnesota as well. And Minnesota had a lot of fluky wins. I think they were 11-0 in like one score games. So, that's fluky. History says that when somebody was lucky like that, one team, the next week, the next year, they tend to fall back down on earth and not even just fall down, they fall flat on their face down. So, I'm going to go ahead and probably trade Minnesota, especially if they're getting points, six and a half. That's a lot of points. I mean, it is Tampa Bay, but I do like Baker Mayfield as being a company quarterback. He's in Tom Brady, but Tom Brady wasn't really Tom Brady last year either. And Tampa Bay, don't forget, they had a lot of injuries last year, especially in the wide receiver position. And a lot of offensive players were injured in the beginning of the season. So, they started off from winning eight games last year and barely making the playoffs, you know, and starting off as slow as they did. So, they're not a pushover team. And, you know, they're middle of the pack, and I think so is Minnesota. They're middle of the pack. So, six and a half, that's a lot of points for two teams that are probably going to finish both around eight and nine. Okay, moving on, we've got Titans and Saints. This one seems to be last. So, people are still buying the Titans. This has been three and a half, and it's been down to three. It's pretty much been that for a while. Which I kind of get because the Titans, they're better as underdogs. And the Saints, I think this is just overreaction to just previous expectations. I mean, the Saints, I mean, so they have this at nine and a half. I mean, which I already know why because, I mean, they have the easiest fucking schedule. I mean, they even have it here. It's 32-32. I mean, they don't have a spread bigger than three. They're 4.3 or something like that. I mean, most of these games, so they're like a one. Yeah, they don't play anybody. Like, they're a one-point underdog against Green Bay, two and a half against Dominican Republic. They'd be the favorites there. So, I mean, for a team that was seven to ten, I mean, it's division, quarterback. It's a good defense. So, yeah, just easy fucking schedule. Just in this spot, I don't know. I guess because I've been born in a spot like this. It wouldn't surprise me if the Titans played this hard and the Saints kind of squeaked this out. Well, you got to remember it's who that is. I understand why people are – if the Titans, you know, I can see why it's a sharp play. That's why it's – right now it's kind of square. I definitely could see the Saints being a square team to ride, like, you know. They just have so many small spreads. I mean, they're slaying a lot of other VEOs for bad NFC teams. So, this is a team I definitely, yeah, I'm going to be tracking. I like the Saints this year. I think they're going to be a lot better this year. The only question is their coach. Yeah, that's the only question. But that's also – But now that he has a quarterback, you know, it's like, I feel like they're saying that about Mac Taylor before he ever was. Yeah, they got a quarterback now. Derek Hargis approved himself again. And his toxic team, Raiders, go Raiders. He wasn't a fan favorite. He got booed a lot. Now it's time for him to make a redemption year, and I think he will. I think that's why I like New Orleans is because of that, the new coach. There's a lot of surprise elements. They're cooking up a lot of stuff in New Orleans. Not gumbo. They're cooking up plays that people haven't seen yet. So, they're going to be good early, I think, as long as they can be cohesive. Yeah, they're like – I see this team as bottoming out. I mean, that's why seven and a half. I mean, yeah, this one. But, you know, like I said, I mean, again, this could be a team. They usually win games like this, but I don't see this in this roster. I mean, they lost five starters in their offense. Well, they also beefed up their offense with Lionel. I mean, Lionel fought hard. Derek Henry played his last big year. And then we talked to the skill players. I mean, their defense, they – they were kind of a workman's defense. But, yeah, in the NFC, yeah. So, yeah, these teams. That's why the spread's kind of weird. But, you know, it's an early season. No, I don't think the spread's kind of weird. I mean, they're both – Yeah, they're going to win games. I mean, they're going to blow people out. Well, it's three, bro. Yeah. The spread is three and it's at home. That means that they're both equal teams. Yeah. So, San Francisco, Pittsburgh. I don't know if you want this one. You can go with it, right? So, this one, this has been – this has definitely been a square of sharps. So, this has been – this has been three pretty much all offseason on the 49ers. It's finally dropped to two and a half. So, sharps finally are taking the Steelers. Which, I mean, I would agree. I mean, the Steelers are so – they're a good underdog. Nice. Awesome. The 49ers generally aren't up in the spot. But, like I said, we'll see. They got a pretty back. So, last year wasn't great, the 49ers. So, I'd be hesitant. But this is – yeah, this is an easy, sharp, square run to Steelers. We'll see if this goes back to three. At two and a half, it's a little bit sketchier, especially at the bed. Yeah, I don't know if I want to do two and a half as a straight bet. But at three, yeah, Steelers are definitely on the solid side. That's definitely one of the sharper bets that we've won. Well, I will say that Pittsburgh Steelers, I think, is the right time. Plus, there's another reason. It's because the San Francisco – you know, the week after San Francisco, the teams were – they were all in 16. They got straight up. It wasn't spread. So, they're losing this game. That's bad for Steelers. Yeah, but I don't think that they're looking their head like that. They're looking at this is the first game of the season. They are underdogs. We'll try to believe so because San Francisco, they are juggernaut last year. But San Francisco, I don't think they have – I mean, their quarterback position. I mean, Purdy's still hurt, you know, from last year. You know, they lost the linemen. They lost McGlinchey, Jimmy Ward. You know, but they still got a stacked roster. I mean, as long as there's not like a major regression from Purdy. You know, but he – you know, he seemed pretty fucking – you know, he seems like he can handle the fucking position. You know what I mean? I know it was his preseason. You know, he needed to get his fucking, you know, game on. You know, I think they're behind him. So, it's a lot of business as usual here. Schedule. They have kind of an average schedule. So, they're number one in DVOA. Number one in point differential. They won us 12 straight games. So, they're – but, you know, I feel like this is – that's going to be a close game either way. Well, I mean, we all can say that. A lot of games. Ten and a half. I mean, I can see where they're a little bit – you know, this is an all-in year. I mean, there's nothing for them to do in the Super Bowl. But we're talking – but listen, Paul, you're over here talking about how they're going to do for the season. We're talking about week one, brother. This is week one. This is – okay, Steelers versus 49ers. Not who's going to have a better year or who's this. My thing is, look, Steelers looked way dominant in the preseason. And San Francisco, yeah. And San Francisco, they still don't – their master quarterback, even with Brock Purdy still – if he's going to start. Is he going to play? I mean, projected? Yeah, he's going to start. He's going to start. Yeah, and he could have been a super – like a Cinderella story. Like, what's his name? From the Eagles that year that they made it all the way to the finals. There's the Purdy. He – when San Francisco was beating teams, they're beating crappy teams at the end of the year. I mean, let's go back to the schedule last year when Purdy was being Purdy and everybody was like, oh, Purdy, Purdy this, Purdy that. Look who they played. They played the Cardinals. They played the Raiders who were crappy last year. They beat Washington up. They beat Seattle up. They beat Tampa up. Let me tell you, name a quarterback that I'm mentioning right now that's any good. They beat Miami up last year. They beat Miami when Tua was not Tua anymore. They beat Saints. Saints didn't have a quarterback. They beat up the Cardinals again. So, these are all teams that didn't even have a quarterback. Rams, I guess you could say maybe a quarterback. They barely lost to the Chargers 22-16. That's the only quarterback you could see on there. When they played a good quarterback, they lost 23-44 against Pat Mahomes. Okay, they lost to the Atlanta. So, all these teams that brought Purdy was looking like a beast out there were all against teams that didn't have a quarterback or they were just a losing team. So, I do think that San Francisco is not as good as they are, and I think they're trending down and Pittsburgh is trending up. So, if you can get them plus money, I think Pittsburgh is the way to go. I'd even take them straight up. Yeah. All right. So, Arizona, Washington. Yeah, this is Washington's been sick. It went up to seven. I guess it's Washington. I mean, they've been in the preseason. I don't know what that means. It doesn't mean shit. This is going to be like with Houston. It's the battle of the sucks. We can just pass those. I'm not touching that fucking game. I'm not touching fucking Arizona. Especially if this shit isn't the way I'm going to fucking like seven. Washington. And I bet you that's the right side. Washington's commanders, they weren't horrible at the end of the year. They actually were doing pretty good. They got one of the best defenses. And with Arizona that has no offense, I could see seven. If I had to pick a side, like let's go how we do last year. When you say if we had to pick a side, would we both be on Washington? I'm assuming, right? Probably, yeah. But that's not saying much. We can move on to that game because we know we ain't going to touch that game. If it does, we're going to go with Washington. Remain in Chicago. I don't know. Who do you like on which one? Well, the pros are – I've gone back and forth on this one. I don't really know this one. Well, Chicago was a good – You know what I like on this? I like the under. This is one game where I feel like I might be an over under. I thought he was going to be an under. People were talking about these quarterbacks. Well, what's the spread? Let's start with this. What's the spread? So, it's been two and a half. It dropped to two. Okay. So, slight action on Green Bay. And roughly so because I heard a lot of talk on a lot of pros that are taking the over on Green Bay's wins. I don't know what they see. Apparently – I see a lot of big sharps around Chicago. I see a lot of sharps on Packers. And I don't know why. I'm going to default to them. These are two teams that I don't really want no part of. I did bet a lot on the legs of Justin Fields last year. And he would do good for me in the first half and then blow it in the second half. I just – with Chicago, I mean, they just – they got to show me something, man. They have no defense. And I think Green Bay is going to be a steady team. They'll probably be an 8-9 win team. And I think Chicago is going to still be about a 6-7 win team. So, if I had to go with anybody, I'd probably go with Green Bay. The line is too small for me to go – to pick Chicago. So, I wouldn't even probably stay – I'd stay away from this game. It's a divisional game. They could go a lot of ways. And I just don't want no part of it. All right. The next is Raiders and the Broncos. You gave me the Raiders sheet. Yeah. So, this is over three and a half. It's gone up to four. Yeah, I think this is another obvious sharps for one. Raiders. I mean, it's moving against it. But, I mean, I could see – What's the line? It's four right now. Well, it's four on this paper, too. So – Yeah. And this paper was put out way before. I got to see something out of the Broncos here first. I mean, they're, you know, new coach getting in there. Well, I saw something out of the Broncos. The line is there. Good defense. But, I mean, the Raiders right now, they're, you know, they've got to help you Jimmy Garoppolo. They're underdogs. You know, nobody's really giving them credit. Their offense, I mean, they can score. Their defense isn't great. But, I mean, Denver, they're not an offensive juggernaut. Did you say their offense can score? No, I said offense can't score. Oh, yeah. Okay, because you said they haven't really showed me much on Denver. They showed me plenty. They showed me they haven't fixed the offensive line. Russell Wilson still running around with his head cut off. He's not the same mobile quarterback as he was where he was able to make plays with his legs and extend plays. That's what Russell Wilson was the best at. That and throwing dimes, deep balls. And if he can't get the time to throw them long deep balls and his legs aren't there with him anymore, he's a shot quarterback. It's just a matter of time before he gets benched. Mark my words. Russell Wilson is done. And while we can get points, and they're laying points right now, is a good thing. My only concern about Denver is they're at home and they have the altitude going for them. So, they're going to be there. History says that when it comes to them playing early in the altitude, they usually win quite a few games in the beginning because of that. The other teams aren't used to, you know, they're winded. They're still getting into season form. So, that's why I would say kind of it's on Denver's side. But, you know, this is one I'd have to do a little bit more research. But I don't like what I'm seeing out of Denver. Yeah. I mean, like the Raiders did. He convinced me to follow the Raiders last week. Yeah, that was just crazy. Actually, yeah, this is definitely a locker best fit on this game. No, you finally got one, huh? Yeah, this has been like the only side I've been consistent on. He goes in Patriots. So, it's four and a half. And it really hasn't moved. I guess it was kind of a dead number. But, yeah, Patriots here. I mean, this is like the most money trend there is week one. It's the Super Bowl hangover. I mean, they always do this shit. They put the loser on the road to the road favorite. Usually, yeah, in a spot where. Let me get that because I'm going to. People seem like they're good. I mean, they're good. But they're not like people act like they're seamen. Because they're a fantasy now. I mean, everything broke for them last year. They have the hot stars, 14 and 3. They didn't play anybody. I mean, they're just. Yeah, I mean, the Patriots, this is like underdog at home. Their schedule is really tough. This is a game where they've got to prove their shit. I mean, the Patriots, this is. They're consistent in this. You know, they're one of the better teams last year we were betting. So, that's what I kind of see. A lot of the teams that we were good at are good dogs in week one. So, I mean, yeah, this is an obvious sharp square side. I mean, unless the Patriots are just complete trash, I don't see why a team would be close. Well, New England. Yeah, well, New England is straight trash. Or at least they say that. They had one of the second easiest schedules of opposing defenses faced last season. One thing about New England is they were top one ranked versus the past, versus the run, and overall. But in either of those games, they played against teams that didn't have a good quarterback or a mobile quarterback against teams. Allen, they faced Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Fields, Golf, Cousins, and Tua. New England allowed seven of those quarterbacks to post in EPA. That was higher than 25%. They allowed nearly 26 points per game against those teams. So, basically what I'm saying is against shitty teams with shitty quarterbacks, they look like Super Bowl containers. But when they play against good quarterbacks, they're not as good, and they give up a lot of points. Last time I checked, Hearst is the MVP candidate. So, you know, Belichick has always struggled against running quarterbacks, mobile quarterbacks, because you can't coach that. You can't coach against that speed. And, you know, who do they have on their roster that's going to act like, you know, Hearst while they're trying to prepare for Hearst? It's just not going to happen. They're going to overwhelm them. But, you know, I'm not one to bet on this game. I do agree on the Super Bowl hangover, but that's the Super Bowl hangover for the year, not necessarily the first game. So, Rams, Seahawks, this one, five and a half. This one dropped to four and a half, which, ah, this one's kind of weird. I agree with that for most of the time. But now I'm just trying to wonder why the spread is so big. I don't see too big of a difference between the teams, but we all know that the Rams are going to play down the regular season, and they never try. But they don't look great. I mean, Seahawks, they're a decent team at home. That spread. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I agree with that. I saw him not too long ago, a couple days ago. I know he's still around. He's having trouble paying his bill, phone bill. So, that's why he's trying to do that. But maybe, now that you're contacting me, I'll find him tomorrow, and I'll call you. Oh, no problem, baby. Three. Three. Three. Three. Three. Okay, all right. Okay. Three. My bad. Go ahead. Yeah, so, let me see. We're still probably leading the Rams. I don't have to see what McVay's numbers are with the talk. So, I mean, this team, yeah, I mean, they were really, this team was, I don't know what we'll be saying. I mean, but they had a lot of injury luck last year, or bad luck. Oh, Ram? They have 13, like, draft picks that are, I guess, going to play or start or whatever, so. What is that? Hold on. What's up there? Hold on, hold on. What's up there? Because you're saying a lot of information, and you're not really saying why, if that's a good thing. You're saying that, okay, you said right there, the Rams have a bunch of starters new. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Is that saying that they're going to be worse than what they were, or they're going to be better than what they are? I don't know. I mean, I think they're a little underrated. Like I said, they're a coach. I mean, I think you get them hyped up, but, you know, to come in in this spot, like, yeah, I mean, I would lean towards the Rams. Lean towards the Rams, towards the game, or lean towards Rams like they're going to, you know, have a better season this year? I feel like both kind of correlate. I mean, like if they don't win this game, I mean, their schedule is brutal to start. I mean, they play the 49ers next, and then Bengals after the 49ers, and then they get the Eagles. I think that's their goal. So their schedule is brutal. But, again, I don't think that teams are playing to be like, oh, we got to win this game one because we got this whole schedule up ahead of us, because who knows what those other teams are going to be like. If they start looking ahead on games on week one, they're not doing the right thing. They need to look at what's ahead of them each week. And what's ahead of them is at Seattle plus six. I mean, let's go back to – I mean, yeah, minus six Seattle. Let's go back to what we used to do. Like where do you – how do you naturally feel about this? Do you think it's a game that may be on the card? I don't know if my bias or my disdain for Seattle right now, I'm leaning mostly to Rams because that's a lot of points. What's your gut feeling saying? I mean, yeah, probably Rams. Rams plus six? I mean, at this point, I probably want to trust the team. Now it's not even – it would have been five and a half. Five, four and a half. So it's not even really getting a good note now. If anything, it might be more leaning towards value. It's the Seahawks. This might be a flip. Just, yeah, I don't have as much confidence in this game as I had. This was – I had a strong – I know a lot of people are low on the Rams. I mean, they're only expected to win six games. Seattle's supposed to be eight. I don't really see that any of those teams are going to be any juggernauts compared to the others. So I think they're getting value with the Rams, and that's why it shows that the line has been moved towards the Rams. If we would have gotten plus six, I would have probably gotten Rams, but it's now going to probably be at about four I kick off. So I'm not really feeling this game. There's just too many unknowns. Seattle, we rode them pretty good last year. The only thing I know is don't ride the same team, ride the same wave twice. We got to find a new Seattle this year. It could be the Rams. It could be the Rams, exactly. So we'll just move on from that. We got Miami Chargers. This has been a dirty two-and-a-half all-off season. Two-and-a-half, so hold on. It went up to three. Three, but who's favorite? You got to let us know. Chargers. Chargers is favorite three. Are they away? It's at – It's at Chargers. That's why it's a lower – why the number, I think, is where it's been at. Well, it started at two-and-a-half, so it's gone up to three. So that means that money's been on the Chargers. I think it's where it's sharp. I think – I mean, I don't know why the Dolphins wouldn't be a sharper side. I mean, I just feel like that's just based on just general value. I mean, I don't know. I mean, because the Chargers, I mean, just the number didn't even play in the preseason. I don't know what to take away from that. Well, I'll take – I don't know why that got fed up like that. Yeah, I don't understand either because Miami started off hot last year. Tua being hurt kind of, you know, like low distinctly, they kind of slowed down towards the end. Didn't know if he was healthy or not. They kind of sizzled out towards the end. And Chargers actually did the total opposite. They started off slow like they normally do. Over the past ten years, I feel like Chargers started off slow and then pick it up towards the end. Last year, though, the reason why they started off slow is because they were injured quite a bit. They had a lot of starters missing on the offensive line. So, trying to keep Justin Herbert upright was, you know, he actually got hurt quite a bit because of that. They're healthy now. I think they're going off of Chargers what they're expected to be like opposed to what they really are. And I think they're not giving Miami enough credit. I mean, they've gotten a lot of new pieces. They've got their defense. They've got one of the best corners, two of the best corners in the league. They've got a pretty solid secondary good defense, a defensive coach. Oh, wait, no, it's an offensive coach. I'm sorry. But they've got a good defensive coordinator. They've got good defense. Yeah, they've got a big Fangio. Yeah, they've got a Fangio, exactly. So, I think that they're going to be a lot better defensively. And then, of course, they still have Waddle and Landry, right, if I'm not mistaken, and Tua and Tyreek Hill. Not Landry, I'm sorry. Yeah, Tyreek Hill. And, oh, shoot, that's a major upgrade. And then Tua is healthy. So, I would be careful about picking. I think Miami. I mean, yeah, last year it was just like pick the Dolphins because they were, you know, at points, I mean, I would lean probably Dolphins here. Throw it out. I mean, yeah, we were like firing up the Dolphins. They're a pretty easy team to read. Yeah. Cowboys, Giants. So, this one, yeah, this one kind of started in this little sharp binge. Went from two and a half, now it's been up to three and a half. I don't really know why other than, yeah, people are. Because it's the Cowboys. You know why. They're sitting in the Cowboys this year. I mean. So, that's why. Dominate the NFC East teams. So, I know the Giants, people are trying to come around to the Giants too, but I think they're limited with, I mean, they keep, I mean, I don't see how much better they can get. I mean, they're just, you know, they're underdog and now they're, I mean, I just feel like for a reason, probably priced right. Well, here's the deal. Here's the deal. Let me say this. Cowboys were one of the best teams against the spread last year, 13 and 4. I stood away from them. I always stay away from the Cowboys. It seems like every time I go with them, they lose. Every time I go against them, they win. And so, either way, I get my heart broken. So, them being, I think they're going to have extra juice on them. And especially if the pros are on their side, you're never going to get good line value with the Cowboys. Because as soon as the line comes out, they're going to be bet up. The only time you're going to get good value with the Cowboys is when you don't know what the pros know and they're begging you to pick the Cowboys. So, when the line don't make sense, go with the one that doesn't make sense. Because if not, you're going to be paying an extra premium with the Cowboys. And you can already see that. It went from 2.5 to 3.5 with no reason for it. I mean, nobody's shown anything in the preseason that would make you seem like, you know, the line should have moved. So, just be aware with that. They're begging you to keep going Cowboys. If it keeps going up, I'm going to probably like the Giants. But, again, I don't bet the Cowboys. So, you won't see me putting that on my best bets. Yeah. All right. And last game, Monday night, Bill the Jets. So, yeah. This is another one that's kind of predictable. It's 1.5 Buffalo. They're moving up to 2 now. So, a little bit on there. Just a matchup of the Jets off of the line isn't great. And I think that's where the matchups are staying there. But I do kind of like the human factor in this one. Yeah, I feel like the Jets, I think they're going to steal this division. So, this is a game they've got to win. I don't like, you know, the hype team, the hard knocks and all that shit. But, I mean, I think this game, this is a game where, you know, Aaron Rodgers, you know, his MO is either he's all in or a game or he's all out. You know, if shit goes bad, you know, he'll, you know, shit the bed and they'll get their ass beat. But I don't see that in this spot. I mean, especially the action is so square in Buffalo. I mean, they always put, you know, a road favorite in this spot on Monday night. I'm not big on the Bills. So, I'm totally into the Jets. But, I mean, anything, I probably like the under in this game. This is probably an under game for sure. Well, I think this game comes down to do you believe in the Jets going to be what they're supposed to be, which is, you know, possibly Super Bowl bound. That's basically they're all in with Aaron Rodgers. I mean, they have the defense to back it up. They have the running game to back it up. Wilson looks like, you know, a pro bowler, one of the best receivers. So, Aaron Rodgers just has to be Aaron Rodgers. We'll see about that. I mean, he is getting one year older. He didn't show that he's slowing down. But we've seen this movie before where the age quarterback from Green Bay goes to the Jets and, you know, it starts out with a rocket in the bottle and then, you know, it doesn't necessarily turn out that way. I think they're going to start off very good and surprising some teams. And they're going to be talked about. And you're going to see them a lot on sports centers. They're going to talk quite a bit about them. And then, eventually, Aaron Rodgers is going to be Aaron Rodgers. And he's going to, you know, kind of digress towards the year. So, I think they'll do good just in the beginning. Will they beat the Bills? You're only getting Bills one and a half. I mean, any other game, Bills are going to be favored by a lot more. So, I think there's a premium with the Bills because I think the Jets are probably getting a lot of square love because of Aaron Rodgers and New York. But I don't know what I'd like on this one. This is one of those where I think I'd be trying to be too smart, trying to out-think myself and end up going with the wrong side and being pretty pissed. So, I'd probably stay away from this game all in all. And that's pretty much it. Well, this is just kind of a little practice again, what we're going to do. I think down the line, when we start getting into the season, it's going to be more concentrated on the teams we like. And so, we don't want to waste you guys' time and our time with games that we're not even going to be talking about. So, we'll probably narrow it down before we start. And then just give people less is more, I guess you could say. There's a lot of games here we talked about and I don't think that we needed to even get into. But, yeah, it was fun. And we'll do some more research and get back to you all. Anything you want to say, Paul? No, just looking forward to the season. It's almost here, so ten days away, but let's go. All right, man. Y'all be safe.