EP 10 AUDIO

Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched a coordinated attack on Israel, resulting in a large number of casualties, mostly civilians. The attack was well-planned and involved different methods, including a cyber attack. The Israeli intelligence agencies failed to detect the attack due to complacency and a false sense of security. Some speculate that the recognition of Hamas as the legitimate government by Israel may have emboldened them. The timing of the attack coincided with the momentum of the Abraham Accords, which threatened Iran's interests in the region. There are concerns of a larger regional conflict involving Hezbollah and Russia. Iran has denied involvement in the attack. You're listening to the Bill Kelley Podcast. Here's your host, Bill Kelley. Welcome to another edition of the Bill Kelley Podcast. Critical discussions in critical times, and we are indeed in critical times. Joining us to talk about what's going on in the Middle East, and again it's a very fluid situation, we are pleased to welcome to the program Professor Oral Brown, who is a professor of political science at the University of Toronto and a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs. Professor, always a pleasure. Thank you so much for the time today on what has become a very hectic and very troubling time in the Middle East. Thank you. Let's talk a little bit about what we know so far. We're doing this podcast on Monday the 9th, but this began a few days ago, of course, when we heard about the invasion, essentially, of Israel. Hamas troops, paratroopers, and a number of other things basically crossing the border. We're not immune to the idea that missile attacks have been going on and off for months, if not years now, Professor. Were you surprised about the enormity of this movement by Hamas? I was surprised by it, and obviously the Israelis were caught by surprise with a massive intelligence and operational failure on their part, for which they have paid an extremely heavy price in lives. This was a carefully coordinated operation by Hamas and its junior partner, at least for the time being, Islamic Jihad. It was conducted from the air with power gliders on land, by sea, and there was also a cyber attack, which included denial of service. It was clearly something that was planned for many weeks, months. The Wall Street Journal believes that it has persuasive evidence that Iran was involved in the planning of this. It certainly has the hallmarks of a Iranian operation. And when the Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives entered Israel, they went on a killing spree on a vast scale. On Saturday, which was an important Jewish holiday for Israel, they were celebrating, there was a large concert, resulted in the largest bloodbath in Israeli history. To date, apparently, at least 800 people were killed, 90% perhaps of these were civilians, one third were killed, were young people who were attending a concert, and they were hunted down by Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives. One by one, people were trying to hide behind trees and ditches, pleading for their lives. Others were killed at home, in their kitchens, grandmothers, grandfathers, parents killed in front of children. And then Hamas and Islamic Jihad were celebrating on social media, and supporters in Gaza, they were distributing sweets. So, it reminds us why Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been listed as terrorist entities by almost every democratic state. And in Canada, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not just listed in general as criminal entities by a government, but this is also a listing under the criminal code of Canada, and this is reviewed every five years, and it was reviewed in 2021 last, and they were left on the list, and the behavior of these Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives shows that this listing was well justified. How could something of this magnitude, though, be organized, planned, with virtually no chatter? I mean, we know Israel, for instance, takes great pride in their intelligence gathering. We have the Five Eyes, the United States, of course, being the main player in that. And we've heard that, you know, they can say, well, there's some talk about this, or there's some troop movement going on. Nothing, nothing here at all that we've heard of anyway. It's highly unusual for something of this magnitude to totally escape the attention of what we consider to be some of the most effective intelligence agencies in the world. The Israeli intelligence agencies, the domestic one and Foreign Intelligence Mossad, are viewed as a gold standard, and it tells us about how intelligence failures can fail, no matter how good they are, and they fail because of complacency, they can fail because of hubris, they can be a failure because there's a rigid paradigm that they've logged themselves into, and they disregard the signals. There were some analysts in Israel who had predicted that this would happen, but clearly the intelligence services were not alerted. They were not able to read the signals carefully. Now, it is also the case that the Hamas and Islamic Shiite had learned from electronic surveillance by Israel before, so they went offline. They probably communicated using the very old-fashioned means of couriers and paper, so there were no electronic signatures, because we know that it was sent electronically. There was cyber warfare that they engaged in, and there was this kind of general deception where Hamas tried to project an image of moderation, or that they differentiated themselves from Islamic Jihad, and buying into this notion of moderation was something that not only Israel did, but the West as well. It was something that also happened with the Taliban. Remember that at one point they were negotiating with the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States, thinking that they could have some kind of agreement under the belief that somehow the Taliban had changed, had moderated, but once they took over, we can see how they behave in Afghanistan right now. These kinds of organizations that are basically terrorist organizations as per the Canadian and British and OAS and the European Union designation, they don't really change, and so that may have been another factor as well, this false sense of security, and therefore exercises and maneuvers were viewed merely as cyber-rattling. Some observers, and we've heard from many of them over the last four days, as I'm sure you have, Professor, opining about what happened and why this happened, are suggesting that this whole process may have started when the Israeli government, I guess it was around 2005, 2006, recognized Hamas as the legitimate government for the Palestinian people, that that opened the door and emboldened them. Is that something you agree with? No, there is speculation at this point, and Hamas came to power and then it became a total dictatorship. When they came to power, they went after the opponents, they were busy throwing off the PA people of 10-story buildings, and so there was unclear what kind of government they were. This was in Gaza alone, not in the rest of the territories, not in the West Bank, so there was never a formal recognition on the part of Israel, but they decided that they had to live with it, they were not prepared to go in and remove this regime, and perhaps that was a mistake, so one can speculate as that being a factor, and there will be investigations that will go on for years. It has also been speculated by some, the internal turmoil in Israel over judicial reform also emboldened Hamas, that the fact that this was also preoccupied in the West Bank with clashes with militants, that may have been a factor as well. And of course, what also is no mere coincidence, I would suggest, the timing of this attack by Hamas. The Abraham Accords, which have seen Israel and four important Arab states reach a peace agreement, exchange diplomats, and establish full diplomatic relations, was gaining momentum, particularly in Israeli negotiations with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia is a key country, it's not only extremely wealthy, but it is also where the two holiest sites in Islam are, Mecca and Medina, and this would have been an enormous breakthrough. Iran was very opposed to this, because they are enemies of Saudi Arabia, and all those countries that are allied with Saudi Arabia, and they understood that Hamas, and Zani Jihad, which have often acted as proxies for Iran, they have been heavily armed by Iran, that if they started this kind of conflict, that would at least greatly delay any such agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, or end it perhaps permanently, and it seems that that is happening, and that agreement is not going to occur for a long time now, at best. Not surprisingly, of course, the Iranian government has denied any involvement in this at all, I guess we come to expect that sort of a denial, but it seems anyway, Professor, that there might be some sense of coordination here, the attack certainly by Hamas over the last number of days, and we're told that there are still some Hamas cells within Israel, that maybe are trapped in there now, because Israel has fortified their border, but at the same time to the north, of course, you've got Hezbollah, there have been some incursions there, which has forced Israeli soldiers to actually work on two different fronts at this point right now, is this part of a master plan? It seems highly unlikely that this is really happenstance, that that would happen. It would not be surprising that Iran would like to see regional conflagration, because it would play to its advantage, and we know that there are now clashes already on the northern border, and that there have been attempts at intrusion, and Israel dealt with that on the northern border, and Hezbollah just in the past little while has been threatening engagement, and Hezbollah is basically an all-out proxy of the Iranian regime, which is Iran is the world's largest supporter of terrorism, and this kind of regional conflagration would not only damage Israel, but would make relations with all Arab states between Israel and those states extremely difficult, and there's one other state, one other entity that would benefit from this, and that is Russia, and Russia has worked very closely with Iran. We know that Iran has provided vast numbers of killer drones, suicide drones to Russia that were employed in Ukraine. We know that Russia has protected Iran and the United Nations and elsewhere, and that a war in this region that involves Israel and Hamas at the very least has captured the front pages of newspapers around the world, which means that the Russian aggression in Ukraine is no longer the central focus, just as there are those who are wavering about supporting Ukraine. So, it would not be surprising if Russia also had a hand in this, at least indirectly. Certainly, the more discontent that they can sow, the more advantageous it's going to be to Putin with what he's doing, and I guess his long-term plan for regaining some of the old Soviet Union. How far does Israel go here, professor? We know that they've already retaliated. There have been some attacks and some deaths, Palestinian deaths as a result of this. I know in the past that there are reports that when there have been retaliatory missile attacks in the past, the Israeli government has tried in many circumstances to warn some of the Palestinian neighborhoods. You know, we're going to target this. Please get out of there now, because we know that there's a Hamas presence in that same building. You can't do that all the time. I mean, the enormity and the size of the weapons used, there's going to be damage. There's going to be deaths, and that seems to be happening now. Is there a concern here that while the world is shocked and sympathetic to the tragic events in Israel, that Netanyahu and his government could overstep that by simply this mass invasion that some people are calling for, some people within the Israeli government say this is the time now, that we simply move into Gaza and wipe out Hamas. The toll for that on both sides would be enormous. Is that something that Netanyahu would actually consider? It is being considered. The decision to actually declare war, which has to be done legally in Israel to be able to call up mass mobilization, and Israel has mobilized something like 300,000 troops at the moment, calls for the eradication of Hamas's capacity to fight a war and to govern, and this could potentially be interpreted as the actual removal of the Hamas regime. Now, in the past, the policy in Israel has been one of so-called mowing the lawn, that they would come back every two, three, four years and then punish Hamas for its rocket attacks or terrorist attacks in Israel, and then gain a few years of peace. But this attack in Israel, this is sort of an Israeli 9-11, 800 people killed, and not just killed, but the sheer brutality that was done, the very deliberate killing, the celebrations of these killings, the humiliation of captives, the fact that 100 plus people have been dragged into Gaza as hostages, has so shocked Israel, has created such anger in Israel, has sent the message that if Hamas would have the capacity, they would try to kill everybody and that this is the goal of Iran, that they may now indeed wish to move forward and remove the regime that runs Gaza, which is Hamas. Now, your question is a very important one. Would Israel, which now seems to have wall-to-wall support in the democratic world, retain that support as casualties mount? Because in any kind of military operation, no matter how careful you are, there are going to be casualties. We see this in any British-ranked operation. That is the nature of war. So the statement now by Mr. Biden, for example, where he said Israel has a right to defend itself, full stop, would indicate that all-out support. We have even, you know, not just on the part of conservatives or certain pro-Israeli groups making statements like that, but even on the conservative left. The mayor of Toronto, Olivia Chao, said that she unequivocally condemns the horrific Hamas terror attacks in Israel. But as casualties are bound to mount, that would be a big question. Will Israel retain that support? Will there be pressure on Israel to stop before they can remove Hamas? Because removal of the Hamas regime would not only be very difficult and very bloody, you have the hostages, and that has to be something that is on the minds of Israelis how to do that. But the images that will emerge, and the images of war are always, always shocking. This is why the best thing is to avoid war. It makes it very, very difficult. And so we will have to see. But at the moment there is such anger in Israel, and there's such a realization that they cannot be going on like this under constant threat. And that at the very least, borders, cities, and kibbutzes, which now have seen this kind of extraordinary cruelty, this deliberate killing of civilians. I mean, just think of it. If the same policies were used by Israel, which is also reputedly a nuclear power, which has vast firepower, by now you would have hundreds of thousands of dead in Gaza. They would have that firepower. And yet they, even in this point of anger, are restrained by key military codes, as are all Western countries. But no code can bring about entirely surgical operations. It's just not possible. And it's certainly not possible when entities like Hamas are prepared to use human shields. And we've heard those stories, of course, you know, setting up military within hospitals, etc., in some of those regions. The key word here, though, and the key phrase, and you're right, President Biden used it, Prime Minister Trudeau, other world leaders, French President Macron, Israel has a right to defend itself. That's an interesting phrase. Does that mean you go as far as the border? Does that mean no incursions into Gaza? Does that mean no incursions into other areas where they're being attacked? That's always been a sticking point with the Israeli government and their actions or reactions, I guess, to some of these attacks, hasn't it? It has been. And it has been a key restraint. And it's not always a bad thing to have that restraint. There are certain points that you reach where you have to ask yourself, what is the solution to that problem? Can you continue living under that kind of threat? Having demonstrated this kind of wanton human destruction where hundreds and hundreds of young people who are merely attending a concert are deliberately murdered in cold blood, where people are killed in their homes, where they invade a kibbutz and they herd people into a dining hall and hold them hostage, where in the history of the Jewish people, of pogroms and the Holocaust, to relive that kind of experience, to first-hand, in the case of those who were victimized, to experience that existential threat, how long can they put up with something like that before they take further action? And this is what we will have to see. Will Israel decide to take action for the removal of Hamas? How long will that take if they make that decision? How much Western support will continue to do that? Will there be an expansion of this conflict? Will Hezbollah become involved because they are, to a significant extent, controlled by Iran? Would Iran become involved directly as well because they have rockets that can reach Israel and they are close to a nuclear capability? So this is a very difficult and dangerous and unpredictable time. I guess what muddies the waters to a certain extent, too, and I've heard this from some of the people that have commented on the conflict and the war in this area, they conflate Palestinians with, in this case, Hamas. In other words, assuming that if you're Palestinian, you must be supportive of Hamas, and that's clearly not the case in Gaza. There are Palestinians that are also being herded into living areas and ghettos by Hamas. So it's very difficult to tell one side from the other. I know Hamas maintains that they are the voice and the strength for Palestinians who have been oppressed by the Israelis. That's been their common line for a number of years right now. But how do you carry out a massive operation, such as the Israelis seem to be considering right now, and try to maintain some sense of who's right and who's wrong and who we should be targeting in situations like that? You're raising a vital point, and that is that Hamas is a dictatorship. And Hamas came to power initially having some significant support, but then they no longer hold legitimate elections in Gaza. They have often killed their opponents. They threw some of their opponents off 10-story buildings from the PA. They have engaged in horrific repression of the Palestinian population of Gaza, people who don't share the same religious beliefs, people who are LGBTQ, people who may stand politically, have been treated with horrific repression. The billions of dollars that have flowed into Gaza, that could have been used to build Gaza into a prosperous entity, were expropriated to a significant extent by Hamas, and they built tunnels, and they bought armaments, and they used it to train their operatives, and they sometimes lavishly do some of the key leaders in Hamas. So in that sense, Hamas has not only been a tragedy for Israel, they have also been a disaster for the Palestinian people. But how to remove them, and at the same time, how to protect the civilian population in Gaza, which, as in the case of many dictatorships, may by and large not support that dictatorship. You can't really measure a level of support correctly in a dictatorship, because opposition is not allowed. There's no free press. There's no ability to create an independent society, a civil society. So how to save the majority of those people in war, that is very, very, very difficult. And Hamas is making it more difficult, because they don't seem to care that much about the lives of their own people. They care about their particular fanatical cause, and everything else is merely instrumental to them. The next steps are going to be very, very key in exactly how this is going to shake down, and as you say, how global reaction is going to be formed as well. Professor, it's always a pleasure to have you on the show, and always a pleasure to get your very insightful perspectives on this. Thank you so much for the time today. Thank you for inviting me. That's Professor Oral Brown, Professor of Political Science at University of Toronto, and of course a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs. And that's our show for today. Thanks so much for joining us for the Bill Kelly Podcast. We're available wherever you get your podcasts. And until next time, bye-bye, take care. This podcast was brought to you by Rebecca Wissons and her team at Wissons Law. 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