cover of 13. RB Rankings, Mixon News, Possible Holdouts?

13. RB Rankings, Mixon News, Possible Holdouts?

13. RB Rankings, Mixon News, Possible Holdouts?

The Play Action Podcast

0 followers

00:00-32:38

Transcription

The PlayAction podcast is back with part two of Fantasy Month. They discuss the running back rankings, including Joe Mixon's contract restructure and Breece Hall and Javante Williams' injury recoveries. They then start going through their top running back rankings, starting with Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Jonathan Taylor. They also mention the contract situations of Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. They predict Bijan Robinson to have a great rookie season and rank him fourth. They discuss Saquon Barkley's contract situation and rank him fifth. They surprise with Miles Sanders as their sixth-ranked running back based on their stat projections. Hello everyone, and welcome back to the latest episode of the PlayAction podcast. Um, this is actually part two of Fantasy Month. I'm not going to do the sound effect because Robbie is not here. This is a solo episode today. And, well, I'm not that good at that sound, that voice. But, um, yeah. So, we are here, back, and ready for the next installment of Fantasy Month. I'm sorry for the delay. This episode was actually supposed to come out last Sunday. It's coming out today, July 16th, instead. Um, because there was a technical issue, so this episode had to be delayed a week. So, here we are, a week later, doing part two of Fantasy Month, plus a week. But I'm still just going to call it Fantasy Month because that sounds way better. Um, and today we will be breaking down the running back rankings. So, um, my personal stat projections, who came out on top of the running backs. Um, we're just going to talk through the top names because the later names we don't really need to talk through right now. Um, that's for a later date. But, um, just the top names, the RB1s, RB2s, those guys. Um, we'll try to get through the top 24 today. Those are the RB1s and RB2s. And if we have a little extra time, maybe we can go even a little further than that, deep dive on all these players. But I don't know how much time we'll have. Of course, um, we do have a little bit of news. Um, so just some hype pieces also. But mainly, we actually do have real live news. Um, Joe Mixon restructured his contract to take a pay cut to stay with the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, this is a big deal because Joe Mixon was a big cut candidate. A guy that could get cut in training camp. And now, um, he's going to stay to be the starting running back for the Bengals. He doesn't have as much competition with Somajit Pirayan gone. Um, and just a bunch of young, late draft picks on the roster behind him. So, Mixon will get a ton of carries for your fantasy team. I, um, I considered moving him up in my rankings. And I looked at where I had him. And, um, I didn't feel like I could move him up any more than where he already is. Um, which, I don't even know if we'll be able to talk about him today. Joe Mixon is, we might if we have extra time. Um, but he's not inside that top 24. He is just outside there actually. So, um, we might get to talk about him today. We might not. But, yeah, that's the news on him. And then Brees Hall said he's going to be ready for week one. Javante Williams said he's going to be ready for training camp. Two guys that tore their ACLs last year. Brees was, um, actually more of a minor injury than Javante. Javante just completely blew out his knee. His ACL, his LCL, some ligaments in that area. Um, Brees was just an ACL and a meniscus. Um, so he should be back. They're expecting him back for week one. Javante, somehow, they're saying is training camp. And that sounds a little fishy to me. But he will move up in my running back rankings. If he actually is ready for training camp, he will skyrocket up because I will change my stats to have him getting more carries and more yards and more touchdowns than the Samaje P. Ryan. All right, without further ado, I'm going to take a quick break just to get everything ready. And then we will start with the running back rankings. All right, welcome back, everyone, to the Play Action Podcast. And now it is time to get into my running back rankings. My running back one, no surprise here, it's Christian McCaffrey. His ADP is the running back one. He's getting taken at the 101 in most drafts. Although there's a lot, it's more contested for the 101 this year than in years past. But now we get finally Christian McCaffrey yet again as a 49er. He's coming to his own. He catches the ball great. He runs the ball great. He's on a great offense with a great coach and a great team. So a great line. There's not really much to talk about here with Christian McCaffrey. We already know he's good. We don't need to cover him much. He's consensus to RV1 right now, and that's where I have him. A little more chalk here at running back two and three, actually. Number two is Austin Eckler of the Los Angeles Chargers. His ADP, running back two. So that is where he is being drafted. Obviously, all these ADPs are at half PPR because that is the setting I usually play in. I don't play any standards. I think I only have a league where I'm in full PPR. So I mainly play in half PPR. And Austin Eckler is the running back two in that format, and that's where I have him. Because Austin Eckler, that was another little bit of news, some running back holdouts. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley will hold out if they don't get a new deal. They're not playing on a franchise tag. And then Austin Eckler wants more money. So then his current contract. So he's unhappy. So it's a big trend of these running backs being unhappy, but I think he will play for the Chargers this year, and he'll be great again. He's a touchdown machine like Christian McCaffrey. He catches the ball and runs the ball efficiently. So not much to talk about with Eckler here either. He's a great running back. He has been for many years, and he will be again this year, assuming he plays. So three names to watch. Austin Eckler, Josh Jacobs, and Saquon Barkley. Three top-tier running backs that are not happy with their contract situations and are contemplating holding out. So watch those names. We could have another Le'Veon Bell situation here, which would not be good for the fantasy community. At running back three, some more talk as this ADP is running back three. Jonathan Taylor. He was the consensus 101 last year. Obviously had some injuries. It's not like he was worse. He just got hurt last year and now has slipped to running back three. He's still a beast. He's still going to be great. He's going to get a million carries because they're not going to throw the ball much with Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew. So I expect Anthony Richardson to not be that good. I'm not an Anthony Richardson fan, and I expect Jonathan Taylor to get a bunch of carries and to be pretty good this year. Again, not much to talk about here with these top three. They're usually around the top three, so not really much to deep dive into here. Now here's where things start to get a little different. At running back four, I have Bijan Robinson, the running back for the Atlanta Falcons. He was a top ten draft pick as a running back, which is hard to do. People say Algier could pose competition. I disagree. I don't think Algier is going to do much now that Bijan is there. But obviously there's a little concern because he's a rookie, but Saquon was going around the late first round his rookie year. He went off and was the best player in all of fantasy his rookie year. I can see something like that with Bijan. I don't have him ranked as the running back one, but I can totally see Bijan Robinson finishing as the running back one. I can totally see that. That's perfectly logical. It makes perfect sense to me. So, I mean, Bijan, he's going to get a ton of carries. They have some good offensive weapons now that Bijan is there. He was an elite player in college, just generational prospect, and now we get to see him on a team. Arthur Smith, we saw what he did as offensive coordinator in Tennessee with Derrick Henry. We saw what he did last year with Tyler Algier, who had way less draft capital, and now he gets a true generational prospect to run into the ground with Bijan Robinson. So, I'm very excited to see what they do with Bijan this year. At running back five, we now have Saquon Barkley. As I said, tomorrow at 4 p.m. is the deadline for him to sign a new contract with the franchise tag. So, July 17th at 4 p.m. That's the absolute latest they can sign that new contract. Otherwise, he's on the franchise tag for this year, and he can't get a new deal for this year. And he said that if he doesn't get this new deal, he's not playing on the tag, which I get. As a running back, you only get one big contract, and he wants to make this worth it, really. He wants that big contract. He wants that money for how good of a player he is. And I get that with Saquon, but these rankings are obviously assuming he's playing. And if he does, I've missed the running back five for this year because I do see potential there. I see that he can be great. I see that he can catch the ball, and he can run the ball. He's a great player. The real question is, how good will this offense be? Obviously, it was way better than we expected last year in Brian Dayball's first year as head coach. Will it be that good again? We don't know. Will the Giants be that good again? We don't know. Will Daniel Jones be that good again? We don't know on his new contract. So, I mean, it'll be an interesting thing to watch throughout the year. But we know Saquon will be good. He will get a bunch of carries. He will catch the ball. So if Saquon doesn't hold out, he's a pretty safe pick. Obviously, he has had some injury concerns in the past. Did not get hurt last year. Fingers crossed he doesn't get hurt again this year. All right. Now, at running back six, hot take, guys. You are not going to... This is not the player you're going to expect at number six, okay? So just hear me out on my argument. Don't just flip off the podcast after you hear this name. All the way at the running back six, Miles Sanders is my running back six. When the stat projections came out, and I realized how much he's going to catch the ball, how much he's going to run the ball, the stat projections come out, and it says I have Sanders at running back six. And I'm confused because there's still guys like Nick Chubb, Derek Henry. Those guys are still out there. But I have Miles Sanders ahead of all of them. And I look and I try to find out how. Because I have Sanders having a career year this year on his new team, obviously it's kind of a given he will touch the ball a bunch. He will get a lot of catches. He will run the ball a ton. But that's kind of a given already. It's really how efficient will he be on those opportunities? Because we know he's going to get a lot of opportunities. And how efficient will he be inside the five on the goal line getting the touchdowns? Because last year with Jalen Hurts running the ball and doing that literally unstoppable QB sneak, he did not get many touchdowns because inside the five, all of his touchdowns are kind of home run hitter plays of about 15 yards or more. Because once they got that close, they would just run it with Jalen Hurts and he would score. Inside the five, Miles Sanders did not touch the ball that much. That will change because Bryce Young is small, he's itty bitty. They won't want a QB sneak with him a lot because it's a risk. He won't run the ball a lot because it's also a risk. So Miles Sanders inside the five, when they get in there, it's probably going to be handed off to Miles Sanders, which is not what it was in Philadelphia. So I expect touchdown production to go way up because those carries inside the five will probably go up. And catches, I think he'll be pretty efficient on those receptions. I have him averaging about seven yards a reception right now, which is kind of crazy for a running back. I might bring that down, but it's not as much as I have McCaffrey. So he's a really efficient pass catcher. He'll obviously have those home run plays. And then with those carries, how efficient will he be on those carries? The answer is very efficient. In my stat projections, I have him being really efficient on those carries, getting around 1,200 rushing yards. That's a pretty big number for him. So I have Sanders being great this year, and that's really why. Next at running back seven, we have Josh Jacobs. Again, this is assuming Josh Jacobs plays, which is not a gimme at this point, but if he doesn't play, watch Zamir White. He's the guy to watch. And for Saquon, if he doesn't play, Matt Breda is the guy to watch. So look into those guys. Maybe if you're in a best ball draft, like slow draft, something like that, maybe scoop them up at the end of the draft, just in case something happens, and their value will go up probably about 10, 15 rounds, because they're going so late right now. So grab those guys at the end of your draft. But Jacobs at running back seven, I mean, in half PPR formats, in standard formats, he was running back one last year. In half PPR formats, he was running back three. And obviously, that's incredible. That's hard to repeat, and I don't have him repeating that. I have him dropping about four spots this year, which is not much. There's steep competition here. But Jacobs at running back seven, I feel like it's a good projection. His ADP is running back seven, so that seems to be where the consensus has him as well. So, I mean, not a ton to talk about here with Josh Jacobs. He doesn't catch the ball a huge amount, but he'll be really efficient on his carries. He'll get touchdowns. He'll get a lot of carries. So not a ton to talk about here with Josh Jacobs. I mean, this feels like a pretty fair projection. Now at running back eight, we have Brees Hall. Again, this is assuming he plays, obviously. If he doesn't play, this projection changes completely. But Brees Hall, obviously a great player. We know that. He was awesome last year before he got hurt, last year in his rookie year. And if he plays, he's probably going to be awesome again. We kind of already know that. So, honestly, it's really injury. Will he play? Will he not play? How efficient will he be if he does play? At running back eight, I obviously think he will be very efficient. He will be a good player. Another issue is that how much will the Jets give him the ball? Will they ease him back in, which would be very bad for fantasy. But, obviously, based on my ranking, I don't think that's going to happen. I think he'll be fine because running back eight is pretty high. So, yeah, Brees Hall may be a value in where he's going in drafts right now. Running back nine, another guy I have a little higher, his ADP is very high. I know a couple other football fans that have him a little lower. They think his ADP is too high. Travis Etienne is my running back nine of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Honestly, I feel like this might be a little too high at number nine for Etienne because I think it's tough to evaluate what they did this offseason, bringing in DeArnis Johnson's free agency, keeping Jermichael Hasey, and then drafting Tank Bigsby. It's hard to evaluate what they're trying to do here because I don't even really know. I don't know if these sides are just trying to bring in good depth because they lost James Robinson, they traded him away, or is this just trying to make Etienne not have to carry the load as much. Etienne's a risky pick if you pick him at his ADP right now because you don't really know if he's going to finish there or if these other guys will get more involved. Etienne, obviously, running back nine. His ADP right now is actually 13, so I obviously think he'll be very, very good. This is one of my less confident takes on this list. I'm usually very confident about my projections and have a bunch of reasons why they're there. This one may be a little too high. I don't know. My feelings on this will probably change all the way leading up to the season on how Etienne will be involved and how these other guys will be involved. So, kind of TBD on Travis Etienne. At running back 10, I have Toadie Pollard. I've generally been relatively down on Toadie Pollard. I get he's a great player. He's coming off a pretty big injury that no one's talking about for whatever reason, and he's coming off that. And then, like, no one's talking about it. And Zeke, of course, he's gone. Pollard was good last year, but it kind of felt more like what people aren't talking about is that Pollard kind of complimented off of Zeke. Zeke was the downhill runner. He was the more lightning to Zeke's thunder. And Pollard, he kind of complimented off of Zeke. It wasn't like Zeke was a nuisance. Sure, he was taking away carries, but he was doing the grindy third-and-one carries while Pollard was the one getting the long touchdowns. So, I don't expect Pollard to be way better with Zeke gone. Granted, I have him at running back 10, mainly because with Zeke gone, it means more carries, which means more attempts at getting yards, and then more catches because for whatever reason, Zeke caught a lot more catches than he probably should have last year. So, more receptions for Pollard is a big reason why I still have him at 10. His ADP is running back 9, so right about where I have him. So, that's kind of how I feel about Tony Pollard right now. A guy at number 11, I don't feel confident about having at number 11. That's Nick Chubb. I feel like he probably should be higher because his ADP is running back 8, which honestly feels lower than what people are valuing him. I've been in on Nick Chubb for the past four years, and it feels like no one's been in on him. And now the one year everyone's in on him, I'm kind of out on him. And the reason I'm out on him right now is two words, Deshaun Watson. I'm out on Deshaun Watson. I'm out on the Browns' offense. I'm out on the Browns. I don't think the Browns are going to be that great. I think their defense will be fine, but their offense I have many concerns about. And those kind of relate back and unfortunately negatively affect Nick Chubb. While Nick Chubb will probably still be great, he probably will. Obviously, if your quarterback's not playing well, then it'll affect your running back. It's why I have a few concerns about Jonathan Taylor. If Anthony Richardson doesn't play well, the offense isn't scoring much, and it affects your running back. So that could really negatively affect Nick Chubb. So I'm a little worried, and it's really not Nick Chubb. I also, they're saying he'll catch the ball more. I don't know how many of his targets will be quality, because I honestly don't think he'll catch the ball more. He never has. And just because you remove Kareem Hunt, like they still have Jerome Ford, who's a pass catcher. They still have, what's the guy's name? Felton, Dimitri Felton, who's a pass catcher and return specialist. So you know he can catch the ball. So they have other guys other than Kareem Hunt and Dearness Johnson that can catch the ball to fill that void. So I don't really think the receptions will go up much for Nick Chubb. So that's why I kind of have him at running back 11, a low-end running back 1. With the upside to probably finish at running back 1 if the Browns offense plays well. Our last running back 1, who's ADP is 23, but I have it at 12, Cam Akers. As I said, getting drafted as a low-end RB2, I'm at the low-end RB1. If I came out of a draft with Cam Akers as my running back 1, I'd be happy. Because I'm confident in Akers, first of all. And second of all, I know I have some great pieces at other positions. I might have two good receivers and like an elite tight end. Or two good receivers and a great quarterback. So I'd be very happy coming out of a draft with Cam Akers as my running back 1. I'd be okay with that. A lot of people wouldn't. I'm pretty high on Cam Akers this year. He's a year removed from the Achilles. He looked good last year. He had some great finishes towards the end of the year, I believe. He was like a top 5 running back to finish the year last year. He's got to last like 6 to 8 games. Which is absurd. That no one's talking about Cam Akers. So, obviously there's not that many weapons here in LA anymore. You have Cooper Cup, and then you have Cam Akers. So they're both going to get the ball a ton. And I think Akers will have decent efficiency on that to capitalize on those carries. Now, we'll just kind of probably start going a little quicker on these names. Because they're not the top tier names that we need to talk about. Running back 13, Derrick Henry. His ADP is running back 5. I'm not taking him there. I'm kind of not drafting Derrick Henry anywhere because of where I have him ranked based on where he's being drafted. He doesn't catch the ball. I'm really low on the Tennessee offense this year. Not excited for Derrick Henry. Running back 14, Najee Harris. His ADP is running back 12. So right around where I have him, a little lower. I have him a little lower, I mean. And he's a tough one to evaluate because some people are really high on him. Some people are really low on him. There's really no in-between. I kind of feel like I'm in that in-between where I think he's a good runner. I have confidence in the Steelers' offense. Confidence in the Steelers. Yet I feel like last year he disappointed. I don't know how many passes he's going to catch. It's a tough road to navigate with Najee. I feel like I'm one of the only people that are in the middle at this point. At running back 15, we have Jameer Gibbs, the rookie. Really high in my rankings. A lot of people say Bijon's the only rookie running back. They'll draft high. I think Gibbs deserves a high spot as well, obviously, because I have him at 15. He's another tough one to evaluate because it comes down to what you think about the Lions, the Lions' offense. I'm pretty high on the Lions' offense. I think they'll be good. But Jameer Gibbs also, will he catch passes? I think he will catch a lot of passes. So that helps. I also think he'll be an efficient runner. He'll get touchdowns. But his big concern is splitting time with David Montgomery. How will that affect him? It's a lot of questions with Jameer Gibbs. As there are for a lot of running backs, after you get outside that top tier, is what I've tried to say like three times there. At running back 16, we have James Conner. His ADP is running back 22. The fact his ADP is higher than Cam Akers feels a little weird. I feel like no one's talking about James Conner. When he came back from injury last year, he was surprisingly effective. I think it's just because there's such a negative vibe surrounding the Cardinals that no one's talking about how good James Conner has been on the Cardinals for the past few years. So I think he keeps that up. He's one of the only weapons left in Arizona. And with quarterback issues, Kyler Murray hurt, and then Kyler Murray rehabbing, and then Kyler Murray coming back from injury, like this whole year Conner's going to get an absurd amount of carries. And that should result in fantasy success. At number 17, I have Aaron Jones. And kind of like James Conner, because he's an aging guy on an offense that is getting significantly worse, it feels like there's this weird, unnecessary stink around Aaron Jones when he's still really good. Like, it doesn't really make sense why there's a weird stink around Aaron Jones. There's still not many weapons, and a quarterback that is unproven there, so he'll probably get a lot of carries, catch the ball a lot. I'm still fine with an Aaron Jones draft pick. I have him at 17. His ADP's 14, so I'd like him a little lower than his ADP. But still a fine pick, if you take him. Rashad White is my running back 18. His ADP's 28, meaning I'm really high on Rashad, mainly just because I think he'll, I mean, everyone's saying that he won't be as good as he was last year because Tom Brady dumped the ball off a million times, which is a valid argument. But at the same time, you think about it. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, whoever it is, could have checked the ball down a lot because they're not great quarterbacks, and they're probably not going to do well under pressure, so they're just going to dump it off to their running back, which is a fine strategy. Brady did it all last year. But I don't see those receptions going down much for Rashad White, which is why I still have him high. I think he will continue to be efficient on his runs, too, and his receptions still get a decent amount of touchdowns. And now with Letty gone, he can be the main guy. At number 19, J.K. Dobbins, whose ADP is actually 19, so I'm consensus. Before you guys say Raven's bias here, I am right where his ADP is. So no Raven's bias here with J.K. Dobbins. I think J.K. Dobbins is a great player, though. Last year, obviously, right when he came back, you saw the hobbling one-legged players. Over those last three-ish games, J.K. Dobbins played great football, and with the full offseason now, I think he can be fully recovered and get back to what he was this year, get a lot of carries. He's in a contract year or two, so he's got to prove himself. So I'm excited for what J.K. Dobbins can do here. Now it is fourth year. It feels like it's not his fourth year, but it is. Fourth year in the NFL. Now at number 20, we have Alexander Madison. His ADP right now is 17. Alexander Madison is a guy that's risen up a lot after Dalvin Cook was released, obviously. He's kind of taken the Dalvin Cook place. So then Ty Chandler took the Alexander Madison place. I mean, obviously not exactly. Stats have changed because it's a completely different player with a completely different play style. But Madison's running back 20 for me. So a mid- to low-end RB2. That kind of feels like what he is. I'm not very high on Madison as a player, though, so I might actually end up moving him down a little bit in my rankings. At number 21, we have Ramondre Stevenson, whose ADP is 11. I know a lot of you guys love Ramondre Stevenson. I know one of the football people I really respect, Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers, has Ramondre inside his top five, actually, in his running back rankings. I obviously have him lower mainly because I have no confidence in the Patriots or the Patriots' offense. And I'm not super in on Ramondre. I think he'll get a lot of carries. How efficient he'll be with the weaker line and Mac Jones, I don't know. At running back 22, we have Alvin Kamara, who we don't know if Alvin Kamara gets suspended, moves down in my rankings. This is assuming he does not get suspended. So for now, Alvin Kamara's at 22. He might not stay here. Obviously, I'm not very high on this offense, so I don't expect great efficiency from Alvin Kamara. But if he plays, he should get a decent amount of touches. At number 23, I have Brian Robinson, whose ADP is 33, the running back for the Washington Commanders. This might seem like a hot take to a lot of you guys, but it's really not. He's going to get a ton of touches. I know a lot of you guys are high on Antonio Gibson this year. I don't really know why Antonio Gibson has been hyped up for years and hasn't really capitalized on it since his rookie season. So he's the running back 2 at this point. Robinson's the running back 1 with all those touches. He's going to be pretty good for fantasy. And lastly, at running back 24, we have a surprising one for a lot of you guys probably, Zach Charbonnet, whose ADP is running back 37. I have him splitting with Kenneth Walker, but the difference is the goal line will probably go to Charbonnet, and the pass-catching majority will probably go to Charbonnet, which is something a lot of people are discounting and not taking into account when they're thinking of Zach Charbonnet. They're thinking, oh, Ken Walker will get all these carries. He won't. He'll be the home run hitter. He'll be the first and second down back for midfield, which that gets you yards, but it doesn't get you the touchdowns and the receptions, which are the things you really need as a running back to succeed. And those will be going to Charbonnet. So Charbonnet is at running back 24. Obviously, if Ken Walker wasn't there, Charbonnet would be a top 10 running back for me. I feel like we can kind of talk about Ken Walker here, too. He's my running back 36, so I obviously have him splitting work, because I still have Walkers and RB3. So it's really a muddy backfield right now. I don't really want any of the pieces that much, but if I have to choose, Charbonnet is the guy to go with, so if you have to choose one of them. So at that, we're running out of time here, so that will wrap it up just for future reference. As I was talking about at the beginning of the show, Joe Mixon is my running back 26. He'll get a lot of carries. I don't know how, at this point in his career, efficient he'll be. Plus, with Burrow, they'll throw the ball a ton, so Mixon's my running back 26. That was just another player I really wanted to talk about. And then Damian Pierce is my running back 28, and his ADP is running back 18. That's too high for me with Singletary there, which everyone's discounting. No one's talking about how they signed down Singletary, who will take carries away from Pierce. Singletary's actually my running back 35, so not that far behind. All right, that is going to wrap it up for today's episode. I hope you guys enjoyed Part 2 of Fantasy Month. Next week we will be back here with hopefully a special guest and some wide receiver rankings for you guys. But for now, Ryan of the PlayAction Podcast signing off. See you guys next week.