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2023 Football Cards - A Prediction On How September & October Play Out
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Hey everyone, Mr. Swerve from the Cardboard Jungle checking in, getting a lot of questions from our break and our singles customers. What the hell's going on with 2023 football cards? Are there going to be any more? Is it going to be a season where we don't see any new releases because of all the legal wrangling? So checking in to try to make sense of where things are at, the facts of where things are at and what is likely to happen. As most of you probably know by now, last week the NFL Players Association terminated their licensing rights deal with Panini America over what they deemed a change in control, change of leadership that topped the organization, evidently a clause in that agreement that allowed the NFLPA to exit that agreement if that indeed happened, but seems like a flimsy case at best. I think some of the people with more legal background than I that have come out and spoken about this have kind of echoed that. Change in control, according to Panini, only a couple of the people that were hired away from them by Fanatics, which was the bane of this loss of people, were people that were high ranking, people that reported to either the CEO or high positions. So seems like a flimsy case, I think you couple that with Panini's clear intent to fight this. Their representation, the gentleman that's been quoted in a couple different pieces now speaking on Panini's legal behalf, a guy by the name of David Boies, is one of the most well-known and well-respected litigators in the country. He prosecuted Microsoft in the famous U.S. v. Microsoft antitrust case that was successful for him. He unsuccessfully defended Al Gore in the Gore v. Bush hanging Chad, that whole election thing. He defended Harvey Weinstein. He defended a couple of Jeffrey Epstein's victims, so he's a very, very high profile lawyer. He's on Panini's side. Also what seems to be on Panini's side here is, again, at best, a very flimsy reason for the termination of the contract by the NFLPA. So you have all that, Panini's going to continue to fight this. This is likely to be embroiled in the courts for some time. Panini has formally requested arbitration, which is a lengthy process to find an arbitrator both sides are going to agree on and for that process to unfold. I don't expect anything to happen anytime soon in terms of a legal, just some sort of rectification of this. It's just, again, I think Fanatics is pushing hard. I think part of their strategy here is probably to try to wear Panini down with lawsuits. Fanatics, a much bigger company, a much better position to withstand a long legal fight. Their hope, probably been their hope now for a year and a half, that eventually they could wear Panini down into a sale, a Fanatics-Tops acquisition of Panini. Yeah, just all the obvious benefits that would give Fanatics-Tops at this point. Panini has resisted that. Who knows if that will play out, but it seems like Fanatics-Tops' strategy here. But another way of saying, I don't expect anything in the short term. So what's that mean for collectors? So currently, the NFLPA has a deal with Fanatics. So Fanatics can use NFL players' names, image, likenesses, and products. They don't have that same deal with the NFL. Panini still has that deal with the NFL. So right now, Fanatics can make NFL product, but without the team names and logos, essentially. Panini, even though the NFLPA terminated their deal with them, one, they're fighting that. Two, and we're still waiting for some kind of rectification on this, but by all indications I'm seeing and reading, they're still going to be able to continue to complete the production and release products that are in the hopper. If you look at what's out there right now, so let's look at the Panini 2023 football products that are already out there. You have Score, you have Legacy, you have Luminance. Those are the three NFL uniform products. And then you've got a bunch of College Unity stuff that they got out there. But Score, Legacy, and Luminance, three lowish end products. But in September, slated for release for Panini, Donruss Elite, September 1, Plates and Patches, September 8, and then the two biggest, September 20, Mosaic and Flawless, and then you got Panini Black, that's September 20, and then Panini Black that's set to release on September 27. So by everything I'm seeing and reading, and again, just my amateur legal knowledge, Panini should be able to continue to finish those products, release them. It's very late in the game for those products. It would be, especially with the whole change in control kind of flimsy excuse, reasoning given by the NFLPA, it would be very hard to imagine anybody legally would come in and say to Panini, you cannot release Mosaic September 20, even though it's probably done, ready for release, going into that. So my guess is Panini is going to continue to make football products, as is. Legacy, Score, Luminance, they'll continue to sell. And then the five products that I just mentioned, they'll be able to release into September. And then at that point, you get into October, probably less likely, who knows? It's harder to say that they'll be able to continue to release the products slated for release in October. So on the Fanatic's top side, again, I think their hope here was that NFLPA would terminate their licensing deal, Panini would not fight it as hard as they are, and that they'd be able to forge a deal with the NFL for those NFL licensing rights, hopefully, you know, to make fully licensed player and team and logo product this year. Seems, you know, and again, I'll preface this by saying the NFL owns a large equity stake in Fanatics. But the NFL is also, they're not shortsighted. It's such a massive financial machine they're sitting on. Their history has been to be fairly conservative in any cases or events where there could be any kind of, you know, reputational damage to them or certainly financial damage. So I'd be surprised if the NFL terminated their deal with Panini, especially on potentially flimsy grounds, and forge a new one with Fanatics like the NFLPA did. It's two different balls of wax, the NFLPA and the NFL. And, you know, I think eventually that deal gets done because I think the NFL wants to deal with Fanatics. They'd rather be working with Fanatics than Panini, if for no other reason, they hold a large equity stake in them and they're kind of financially invested in Fanatics' success. But I can't see the NFL doing something like that in the interim while this is being battled out on the legal battlegrounds early. So what does that mean? If Panini continues to hold the license with the NFL, and Fanatics Tops continues to hold the product, the license, with the NFLPA, again, I think Panini will continue to make the products and be allowed to legally that are kind of in the hopper, again, Mosaic and Flawless in September, being the most notable name releases, Donner Solis, Plates and Patches, Panini Black. And then I think you'll see Fanatics just, every indication this company has given you, they're going to be very aggressive. I think they'll aggressively start to make, you know, unlicensed, without NFL teams and logo product as soon as possible. And quite frankly, they've probably already begun that process. My thinking is that, you know, that they're prepared on some level to make 23-football product. Again, if they were to do it right now, it could not be without team names and logos. But, you know, you can still put a very competitive product out there with the Tops Chrome name on it, all the players, autos, oh my God, autos ultimately, you know, are driving, what's driving, you know, a lot of the prices and demand with products. So they have access to all the player names, likenesses, putting autos in the product. So I think you could see that. So I think my guess is we'll see both companies making football cards this year. Panini, probably only the products that are slated for release through the end of September. Fanatics Tops, probably unlicensed. You know, it all depends how far down the road they are with that, with how soon we'll see that. But, again, their history has been that they've been very aggressive as a company, so I'd be shocked if they're not down that road at least a little bit. Also of note, Leaf Trading Card CEO, Brian Gray, for many, many years, kind of the kings of the unlicensed product, just resigned from Leaf. There's a lot of speculation from people that are pretty well connected in the hobby and in the industry that he's not going away, that it probably makes sense. You could see a world where he's hired by Fanatics, a pretty well-regarded and well-respected guy who, his thing is unlicensed football products. So Fanatics, if they look at the landscape and see, hey, this is going to be a six- to 12-month legal battle. We don't want to wait, especially with this NFL PA licensing deal we now own, to make football product. Why not bring in a guy that has spent a lot of his career doing deals in and around unlicensed football card products? So we'll see what happens. It's all still up in the air, and it's just one-man speculation on how this could play out. But I do think we'll have 23 football card products this year. I think Panini will be able to continue to put out these products that are set to release over the course of the next six weeks, and that will take us into October. I think you'll see Fanatics Topps aggressively, if they feel they can't get an NFL licensing deal done, get that away from Panini any time soon. They'll start to pretty aggressively put some product out there under that Topps Chrome name, Bowman, Bowman Chrome, maybe some other names that we don't know yet or that we haven't seen yet. But I think Bowman's Topps has done football cards since 2016, so I'm sure they're not just starting to think about those things right now. So we'll see how it plays out. I'll check in again soon. Again, this is Mr. Swerve with The Cardboard Jungle. We are breaking at TheCardboardJungle.com and a big single seller on eBay, and we'll be back soon with our next video. Take care, everyone.
