Podcast Draft 4

The Climate Impact Podcast discusses the effects of climate change on food production. Environmental variability leads to extreme weather events and harvest losses, affecting food quality and nutritional content. Price disruptions and volatility create stress and prevent people from eating a healthy diet. Cultural traditions and culinary practices are also impacted, as higher food prices force communities to alter or abandon traditional dishes. Low-income countries experience political instability due to increased food prices, while high-income countries are less affected. Climate change also affects mental health of farmers and leads to decreased agricultural yields. Adapting and mitigating through traditional and agroecological management systems is crucial for food security. Farmer education is important, as they are more susceptible to losses. Farmers' mental health is affected by climate change, leading to exhaustion and stress. Agriculture plays a critical role in addressing clim Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the first episode of the Climate Impact Podcast. In this episode, we will look at what food might disappear from your fridge due to climate change and what wide-ranging effects it might have. I'm a climate economist, and I'm pleased to have here with me a team of experts, specifically Violeta, the nutritionist, Vilma, the historian, Fiona, the psychologist, Sophie, the cultural analyst, and I'm Sofia, the host of this podcast, and I'm a climate economist. Climate change is very complex with a wide range of impacts, but we would like to mostly cover the impact on food production. Firstly, let's look at environmental variability, which consists of extreme weather events that lead to harvest losses, distribution disruptions, both in short supply chains, for example, subsistence-based food systems, but also longer supply chains, which impact global food supplies. Friedhaus et al. concluded in their research that climate variability affects quality of grains, explaining that drought stress may decrease the total protein content in wheat, hence affecting its nutritional content. So, what does our nutritionist think about this issue? Okay, so, as highlighted by our economist, environmental variability introduces uncertainties in food prices and supply chains. Hamilton et al.'s findings align with this, underlining the importance of policy interventions for sustainable food systems. These policies not only address economic concerns, but also directly impact the nutritional quality of the food available to us. According to Davis et al., environmental shocks have the effect of disruptions on prices. Price transmission across supply chains informs economic decision-making, but volatile prices can create uncertainty for downstream supply chain actors. What does this uncertainty can create in consumers? What do you think, Fiona? Well, according to Karen Assur, who is a licensed professional counselor, price disruptions can actually create stress surrounding finances and give the effect of money having less power, which can then lead to chronic anxiety and exhaustion. Additionally, it's been found that raised grocery prices often prevent people from eating a well-balanced healthy diet, which in itself can lead to a variety of mental health problems. We've discussed the possible financial and mental strain, but I feel that it's crucial to recognize the profound cultural toll that these price fluctuations can take on communities worldwide. Since cultures are tied to their culinary traditions, any shift in the affordability and accessibility of staple foods can have a massive impact. And these culinary traditions aren't just about sustenance, they're a reflection of cultural identity. Higher food prices may force communities to alter or even abandon traditional dishes that have been passed down through generations. And obviously, as these economies tighten, cultural practices tied to food production, such as farming rituals and artisanal culinary craftsmanship, also face challenges. Looking a bit deeper into food prices and political instability, I was reading a study which claimed that low-income countries see an increase in the international food prices, and it leads to a significant deterioration of democratic institution and a significant increase in the instance of anti-government demonstrations, such as riots and civil conflict. Meanwhile, in the high-income countries, variations in the international food prices have no significant effect on democratic institution and state conflict. That's very interesting to see. And another thing is also that environmental variability reaches consumers not only in form of price fluctuation and shortages, but also, as I mentioned, mental health problems. And the problem is also that it's not evenly distributed between countries and individuals, given the interconnectedness of food systems. And shock influences one step in the food supply chain will undoubtedly impact also subsequent steps. So there is a knock-on effect between countries. What do you think about this, Vilma? Yeah, that's a good point. For example, this study by Porca et al. investigates a more recent historical analysis during 1965 to 2005, where they found that the role of food trade has increased significantly to maintain adequate food availability. And that basically means that if, for example, in a very self-sufficient country, the agricultural production goes down, it's probably going to affect the countries who get their agricultural grain from these countries, and they depend on the trade and imports from these countries. So that's a very interesting insight. Thank you. Mali et al. discuss how agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to climate change, very sensitive to weather changes, which impacts yields and causes huge economic impact. And the loss of crop yields can increase food prices and can have an absolute effect on agricultural welfare globally, with a 0.3% annual loss of future GDP globally by 2100. Practical examples where this has been experienced is in Cameroon and Mexico, where the net revenue of farmers is found to decrease significantly, with a decrease in precipitation or increase in temperature. And this factor and poor policymaking have led to low demands for Cameroon's agricultural exports, thereby causing fluctuation in national income. Moreover, also coffee yields decreased in Mexico, which has not become, which does not remain economically viable for producers in the coming years, and production has been reduced by 34%. And also aggregate production of wheat, rice and maize, which are important food commodities, is expected to decrease if both the temperature and tropical regions experience a warming of two degrees or more. And tropical regions, of course, experience greater temperature increases. Frequency of extreme weather events also increased in the Netherlands, and wheat yields in Dutch region also were significantly affected. And the reason how we can cope, the way how we can cope with this is adaptation and mitigation. So we need traditional management systems and agroecological management systems, such as biodiversification, soil management on water harvesting, which ensure increased carbon sequestration and soil health, increased soil quality and reduced soil erosion. And we'll get resilient soils and cropping system, which will ultimately increase food security during climate change. What's really, really important is farmer education, because small and marginal farmers are not able to cope with climate change due to less awareness, which makes them more susceptible to losses. What do you think, Fiona, about farmers and how are they going to cope with this? Yeah, something that's super important, but often overlooked on this topic is that of farmers and their mental health. For example, one study that I read was conducted by Wheeler et al. in 2019, and it has been found that climate change is affecting the mental health of farmers globally. Changing climate factors, like an increase in droughts or heat waves, causes crops to suffer. And this in turn causes the poor mental health of farmers, as they're forced to work in difficult conditions, and when their crops suffer, they also struggle financially, since agriculture is the main source of income for most farmers. And all of this then eventually leads to more exhaustion, higher stress levels, poorer mental health in general. And then, in fact, unpredictable climate and financial stress were two of the most cited factors in affecting farmers' mental health. And these can lead to things like lower self-esteem, withdrawal from the community, hopelessness, and even substance abuse. Yeah, that's interesting that you say that, actually, because I read an historical investigation on the Ming dynasty by Zheng et al., and they actually investigated how climate change impacted the collapse of the dynasty, and it kind of found that extreme weather events, such as desertification, resulted in a decline in agricultural production, and this actually affected the peasants, which caused an uprising due to, for example, the rising grain prices. So I find that kind of interesting, how it impacts society and how it can impact, well, that time, the peasants, but in modern society, probably the farmers. And yeah. Okay, coming back to what Sofia said about agriculture, I've read in the Impact of Climate Change on Food Systems, Diet, Quality, Nutrition, and Health of Ueno and Kumenda that the agriculture is really important in addressing the impact of climate change on food systems, nutrition, and health outcomes. Agriculture is a key sector that is vulnerable to the impact of climate change, and it is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. The review highlights the need to promote sustainable agricultural practices that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve biodiversity, and improve soil health. Additionally, the review emphasizes the importance of promoting the cultivation of indigenous and traditional food crops, which can improve dietary diversity and contribute to better nutrition and health outcomes. Overall, agriculture plays a critical role in promoting sustainable and healthy food systems that can improve diet quality and prevent malnutrition in the face of climate change. Similar to what you mentioned about sustainability and healthy food systems, Violetta, I'd looked into the challenges faced by farmers and restaurant owners regarding the topic, specifically a fascinating study on sustainability among Swedish restaurants from Ocampo et al. The study highlights the struggle of farmers and restaurant owners in combining local and organic ingredients throughout the year. The challenge really emerges from the seasonal availability of vegetables, a factor that not only impacts culinary practices, but also contributes to cultural shifts. It becomes evident that achieving year-round sustainability requires a really delicate balance. To source local and organic ingredients throughout the seasons prompts necessary adaptations in what was traditionally considered the culinary norm. The seasonal nature of produce introduces cultural differences, reshaping the way communities experience and define their cultural traditions. Yeah, Sophie, that's interesting how you talk about how different societies kind of adapt to the changes in food availability, especially from like a historical perspective. The source by de Groot et al. talks about how certain societies, such as, well, specifically coastal Finland and the Netherlands, have been able to kind of show resilience towards a decline in food availability due to climate change by taking kind of advantage of the marine and freshwater ecosystems in their food production. So this way they've been kind of able to combat the decline in grain crops due to climate change and replace that with foods such as fish, which shows that even though foods may disappear from our fridge, some societies can show resilience and adaptability towards this issue. Okay, it's nice you bring up the topic about resilient food because Fando et al. do provide a framework for a resilient climate sensitive food system that aims to address the risks of climate change on nutrition and food systems. This framework includes strategies for adaptation and mitigation such as promoting sustainable agriculture, reducing food waste and improving food safety and nutrition. The authors also emphasize the importance of addressing the needs of vulnerable populations, including smallholder farmers and low-income consumers, in building a resilient food system. While the authors do not explicitly reference historical resilience, their framework does draw on past experiences and lessons learned to inform current and future actions. You know, your point about farmers actually reminds me of what I was saying earlier about the mental health of farmers and kind of how I read another study about how food insecurity specifically is related to mental health as a whole. And this study was conducted in Iran and it looked at 312 mothers and kind of just examined the impacts of food insecurity on their levels of stress, anxiety and depression. And what the researchers found was that about 50% of the participants lived in food insecure conditions. And of these, about 90% had high levels of stress and anxiety, while about 87% had depression. And these numbers are comparable with the numbers that they found for those who don't live in food insecure conditions. So the mothers who don't experience food insecurity have about 70% had stress and anxiety and only 55% had depression. So we can see that there's a lot higher numbers for those who live in food insecure conditions. And relating this back to climate change, climate change is causing a lot more food insecurity globally. And so we can see that this has wide ranging implications for mental health. So as mentioned earlier, these wide ranging impacts of climate change, not only direct, but also indirect to mental health, are experienced in different regions of the world to a different extent. So these inequalities are likely to increase, which will create further economic problems of economic inequality. And linked to food security, our nutritionist has some insight. Okay, so talking about food insecurity, it is a major concern, as it can have serious consequences for health and well being. Inadequate access to food can lead to malnutrition, which can manifest as undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overnutrition. Undernutrition can result in a stunted growth, wasting, and increased susceptibility to infections. Overnutrition on the other hand can lead to overweight and obesity, which are associated with a range of chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers. Addressing the food insecurity from a nutritionist, it requires a focus on improving access to nutrition foods, particularly for vulnerable populations such as children, pregnant, and lactating women, and the elderly. This can involve promoting the consumption of nutrient dense foods, such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and lean proteins, as well as ensuring access to fortified foods and supplements where necessary. To revert back to the mental health that I was talking about earlier, in addition to the impacts of food insecurity on mental health, climate change has its own effects. One of the studies that I found was actually, it was by Lawrence et al., and it was kind of a review of the existing literature, and they found that climate change generally increased the existing stressors in people, as well as having overall detrimental impacts on mental health. They found that these effects were especially prevalent in those already prone to mental illness. Then when we combine this with the poor mental health effects from food insecurity, we can see that climate change and food disappearing from your fridge really will just be overall detrimental to the mental health of the global population. As we can see from what has been discussed, climate change is a complex issue that has impacts on human well-being and mental health, and affecting different regions to various extent. Nutrition will inevitably change to make up for what we are losing, and as referred to in our inputs, agriculture crops such as rice, maize, and wheat will decrease, therefore we will enjoy less food from these commodities, as well as production of our loved items such as chocolate and coffee will significantly decrease. So bear this in mind. Thanks for all your inputs, and thank you listeners for joining us today.