pranav

The podcast discusses political predictions for upcoming elections in India, the US, Pakistan, Russia, and Bangladesh. In India, the ruling BJP is predicted to retain power in 2024, while in the US, there is a close contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. In Pakistan, Imran Khan is favored over Nawaz Sharif, and in Russia, Putin is expected to win a fifth term amidst the ongoing Ukraine conflict. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina's party is likely to win another term, despite growing public discontent. Hey there, political jinkies and casual observers. Welcome to the podcast on political knowledge. I am your host Pranav Kulkarni and we will dive into the messy world of politics. So grab your favourite beverage, whether it's a strong coffee or something stronger, and join us for no-nonsense. Down to earth, take on political rollercoaster, we all like. Let's get talking. Top Political Predictions for 2024 The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India will be held in April or May. Narendra Modi is a third straight term in power and he seeks to become India's longest-surviving Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Meanwhile, the opposition is racing against time to stitch together an ambitious rainbow alliance to collectively stop the BJP. The predictions, however, heavily favour the ruling party. A recent opinion poll by ABP Seawater has predicted that PM Modi-led BJP will retain power in 2024, winning a similar number of seats as it did in 2019. According to the survey, the BJP-led NDA would get around 295 to 335 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, while the opposition Congress and its India allies are projected to get 165 to 205 seats. In 2019, BJP had won 303 seats on its own. Similarly, according to an opinion published by The Economist, conducted by Forecasting Film Good Judgment, 47% of the people feel that BJP will win 299 to 325 seats in the general elections. The elections to choose possibly the most powerful individual in the world will be held in November 2024 and will perhaps be the most watched political contest in the world, especially since it's already promised to be a close contest like in 2020. According to the latest opinion poll by Race to WH and Real Fear Politics, GOP's Donald Trump has a clear edge over Democrats' Joe Biden in 2024. According to Race to WH, Trump has a 45.1% chance of winning the elections and compared to Biden's 43.8%. Real Fear Politics says that Trump has a 46.8% chance of winning while Biden has a 44.5% chance of retaining power. Interestingly, according to the opinion poll published on The Economist, the Democratic nominee has a 63% chance of winning the electoral poll while the Republican nominee has a just a 10% chance of winning the electoral and popular votes. GENERAL ELECTION PAKISTAN In Pakistan, it will be a tough election next year with both former PMs Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan desperately seeking a return to power. Sharif's biggest challenge will be to wrest back his support base from the former cricketer Hiro who, despite being in jail for graft, remains popular following his outcost for the premiership in 2022. According to the opinion poll carried out by Pathan Coalition 38, an umbrella group comprising several civil society organisations, labour unions and intellectuals, around 68% respond favour PTI's Imran Khan as their favourite leader while only 13% choose PM N Sharif. A similar poll published by The Loop in June 2003 also gave Imran the edge while 48% picking Imran compared to 23% picking Sharif. RUSSIAN ELECTIONS AND UKRAINE WAR The Russian President elections are selected to be held in March 2024 with Putin eyeing a fifth term. Putin's approval ratings have remained steadily high to boast the Russian leader ahead of term. His re-election run, while it may be quite clear that Putin will be retaining his grip on power in Russia and be a de facto president for life, the shadow of the protected Ukraine war will loom over his border public image in run-up to the polls. According to the opinion poll published by The Economist, a staggering 91% of the respondents feel that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely before October 2024. Only about 8% feel that it may happen between April and September after the elections. The long-drawn-out conflict has not only taken a toll on resources on run-up but also on Putin's image. GENERAL ELECTIONS, BANGLADESH The South Asian country will be the first to witness elections in 2024. With polling due in January, the Aumai League under Sheikh Hasina, which has ruled the country since 2009, is eyeing yet another term in office. Interestingly, the opposition Bangladesh National Party is boycotting the election and allegations of democratic backstabbing and doubts of legitimacy of polls, leaving voters with little choice but to re-elect Hasina. According to opinion surveys conducted earlier this year, Hasina remains a popular leader but public discontent is also growing rapidly in Bangladesh. According to a national survey by the International Republic Institute, IRI, with the public's mood on the economy and politics soaring, approval for the opposition has ranged from 36% in September 2019 to 63%, only 7% behind the Prime Minister's 70% approval rating. But with the boycott by major opposition parties and crackdown on opponents, Hasina's victory so far appears to be a foreign conclusion.