EP. 44 AUDIO

The podcast discusses the current global situation and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The funding for Ukraine has become a political issue in the US Congress. The US is becoming more involved in the Middle East, which is what Putin wants to see happen. The actions of President Biden and the reactions to them will be crucial in determining the future course of events. The influence of Iran in conflicts like Gaza, Yemen, and Ukraine is discussed, as well as the strategic alliance forming among certain countries. The importance of a well-equipped and skilled military is emphasized. The potential response to Iran is a major concern. welcome to the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times here's your host bill kelly and welcome this is the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times i'm your host bill kelly good to have you with us today uh... the global situation in the global politics as we see it on this day uh... is is tenuous and i think very troubling to an awful lot of people on a number of different fronts uh... certainly what's going on in gaza in the middle east but uh... forgotten in this whole turmoil seems to be uh... there's a war still going on in ukraine it's it's doesn't seem to lead the lead story on most newscasts anymore uh... but it's still very pivotal in what's going to be happening on and not just on the global scene but i think the future of europe in the future of nato as well and what money is the water here just a little bit of the fact that uh... funding for ukraine uh... which was so generous i guess at the beginning of this war almost two years ago now uh... it seems to have uh... weighing shall we say uh... and become a political football in some circles especially in the u.s. congress so what are the implications of that our next guest has some insights into that he is a doctor robert hewish uh... doctor hewish is an associate professor in the department of international development studies and uh... how's the university uh... professor great to have you on the podcast today thanks for joining us my pleasure bill thanks for uh... for bringing me on board uh... walking and chewing gum is something governments have to learn how to do uh... there was a great deal of interest and i think a great deal of support for ukraine when russia invaded them uh... that war is still going on we still see some of the terrible things that are happening there but has the rest of the world and i'm by that i also mean the united states have they lost focus here are they are they diverted over to what's going on in gaza to the extent that that uh... i don't want to say ukraine is necessarily forgotten but not a priority anymore and i think that's happening in the u.s. more and more as we're getting closer to the election that will take place in the u.s. in november but yes in the short term this is what we're seeing in the u.s. but at the same time ukraine is actually strengthening and reinforcing commitment to its allies in europe and in great britain and that is a bit of a positive spin on this equation so over the weekend and into last week uh... vladimir zelensky was able to to facilitate a new commitment from london and and subsidiary to that also from players like germany and france to say that support will keep coming to ukraine uh... what that was a good deal of long-term not sure because these are other countries still have their fiscal uh... problems dismounting as well but back to your point about the u.s. right now we're seeing that the u.s. is becoming more and more involved in the middle east right there's a massive naval presence in the mediterranean they're spearheading an operation in the red sea to go against the houthis there in yemen and just just a couple days ago where there was a loss of life of american soldiers in jordan that seems to be the result of an iranian drone to which president biden said we will retaliate so if the u.s. continues to put commitments and presence in the middle east and not just funding ukraine but they're actually going to put boots on the ground ships and sea and planes in the sky that's exactly what putin wants to see happen because if the u.s. has the time and the political will to keep funding ukraine then that war of attrition will go in favor of of ukraine but if the u.s. finds itself in these middle east commitments really tied up it's going to put an enormous strain on that ability for ukraine to keep fighting and there's other conditions too that are coming into the picture that after two years plus uh... you know russia has been unable to fulfill its goal which is the removal of government from ukraine so ukraine is still there but the resources and uh... the fortitude going forward is starting to strain for sure uh... andy the gaza thing i think is is absolutely right here that's not something we can simply dismiss you can't put these things in silos can you because they're all interreacted and as you say with the death of american service people this past weekend president biden says they will respond uh... which raises the question how is it could be militarily uh... and is it going to be directly at iran and if that's the case uh... what does that do to to the brother tenuous situation we have right here biden group clearly right from the beginning was very reticent and go face to face with putin uh... you know they would they would fund ukraine but as he always said no boots on the ground there uh... direct attack on ukrainian uh... situations in the ukrainian uh... positions uh... is certainly going to listen to the response for them and we also know that that iran exist as a as a major power in that east but with the support of putin uh... so that the that there's there's a lot of ties going on here at the same time and there's one element here i guess that we've talked about here is the the actions or reactions the president biden might have but what about the reactions to that well that's that's going to be the big changes so i think twenty twenty four as it unfolds we're going to see a really hard decision by the u.s. to to say are we going to continue to deal with moscow and even iran through soft power or is it time to go for a hard power hit we've seen all the soft power strategies of sanctions and and political condemnation in moscow not really impact the drive that's come out from moscow from putin to keep going with this aggressive behavior but where it's going to be a big game changer is if the soft power switches to a hard power approach into iran that is going to be messy i mean the previous gulf wars the u.s. just was not willing to go near uh... any sort of direct conflict with iran and the same holds true today this is a this would be a real big problem uh... for geopolitical stability and already iran's had a little skirmish with with pakistan on the other side of its borders there so that the question is will will will talk to our be able to actually put this down what will sanctions and political condemnation be enough to subside this or is putin part of this part of his thinking is that he only responds to to hard power and aggression and if that's the case we're we're going to see the need for more boots on the ground in ukraine that that's going to have to happen who and where and what not sure yet but that's likely the case it and again i i don't we we can separate ourselves from this what's going on guys and we want to know what uh... the u.s. response is going to be to to the deaths of the american soldiers uh... the response from iran and i will watch one of the news programs this morning i forget which senior official was uh... from iran said that wasn't us uh... and and by i guess what else did you expect him to say uh... they said it was some crazy group that you know that we don't control uh... the rebel groups out there they do with their stuff on their own uh... is there any credibility to that it is all does everything go from to deterrent is all the uh... the the orders all the direction of what was going to do what come from the capital yeah if the crazy rebels now have uh... control of drones we're we're in a bad way uh... but i mean what you just said there is is right on the money because iran has had a lot of influence in all of these conflicts more recently we know that the the the with we go to to to hamas there in gaza the weaponry that's come into hamas has come through iran we know that uh... the the sponsorship of the houthis in yemen that are attacking container ships also iran we know that drones from iran have been visible in the conflict with russia and ukraine so they've got a hand in all of this but it's usually done through their proxy groups it's it's it's it's hamas it's hezbollah it's the houthis it's those that are just arms length enough so they say it's not us we can't be called out uh... in in any sort of international forum for this action but ultimately when we're seeing these smaller groups engage in this conflict the the thing that's got to be remembered is that it costs money to finance this it costs expertise and technology the leadership in hamas isn't in gaza they've they've been they've been based in egypt they've been based in qatar they've been engaged in these international organizations we know that they've gotten funding uh... out of turkey as well these are globally connected to which iran right now is finding itself in a really important position to keep that conflict alive to keep resources going to russia and there's other actors even coming into it now i mean north korea's getting involved with with uh... supplying weaponry to to moscow as well and what it is it shows that there's a real strategic alliance forming amongst these countries but one that's also hanging by a thread uh... technological capability that nato nations are pursuing they are far superior than what you're going to see out of those countries right now i mean there's no forward innovation of technology in those countries it's all reverse engineering copycatting previously uh... previous technology in that way the research that britain's putting forward germany's putting forward french have come forward as well to help support ukraine this is about making sure you have a very well-equipped skilled and now experienced military that's able to basically stand up to an armored regiment and and put them in a in disarray very quickly with just rockets over uh... rockets and backpacks so this is the new era of war but what really does concern me is that if biden is triggering a response to iran where is it going to go is he going to go after the proxy groups is going to be a direct uh... affront to iran itself and if it's the latter uh... i don't think any holds are going to be barred for that one that's going to be a real mess if we go down that road you're talking about alliances which is supposed to be one of the things that we we well initiated to try to protect those uh... which brings us around to nato uh... and and uh... i i i know that it's uh... a much more complex situation but i mean this in the simplest terms the whole purpose of nato the raison d'etre was to try to protect europe and the world from from russian aggression and at those uh... but let's look at where it is right now in twenty twenty four uh... and the fact that you know as soon as the invasion happened there are a couple of other uh... well scandinavian nation sweden among them i wanted to join nato uh... that was okay most of the the the member countries were on side with that except turkey and hungary uh... and he just mentioned turkey and and erdogan and and if you look at where we are right now it's got to be frustrating circumstance i mean you know if these were all like-minded countries that share the concern about a russian aggression right now in twenty twenty four where to turkey and hungary fit into nato uh... the leaders of those countries are are not the sort of people that you think would be on side and and allied with the united states and other member nations france the u-k it's a trip their attitude towards russia kind of indicates that they're on the other side of the front early sitting on the fence and something like this uh... and here we are by the way hungry still uh... you know but not supporting uh... holy what's going to be happening with new members to to nato right now uh... turkey came on side turkey is still an asset because a military strategic standpoint you could mention that to us in the past uh... nato needs turkey they need the bases there uh... their leader they don't have a whole lot of time for but there's a strict strategy in place here how effective can they don't be when they're right there is no necessarily unanimity but they don't seem to be speaking with one voice in some of these key issues yeah that's a really good point and it's also when the nato imagines what it's going to do with its cooperation with its resources so and we've seen especially from canada talking about nato arctic protection arctic arctic arctic we don't have the resources to really protect the arctic right now that that's quite clear i mean i know we're here in nova scotia building boats that are supposed to be doing uh... patrols and whatnot but it's not going to stop a russian nuclear submarine right so that's one thing that should have been distracting and not really getting down to the brass tacks of what's needed i just recently came back from a nato conference in poland in december and now there's a country where you feel a military presence because a lot of the top brass in poland realize that if there is a conflict they're going to be the front line so they're starting to prepare today they're starting to get things a bit more militarized there just in case it goes forward so now that kind of speaks to where nato really needs to figure out what it's going to do it needs to try to find a way to get resources to the nations that are going to be on the border of this conflict so poland's in there latvia estonia finland of course was also say whoa are we next when it comes down to this and with your point about turkey it's great because you know turkey is a country that does not have full control of its borders there's there's conflicts in the far eastern part of turkey that remain to the day they've been going on for decades whereas the western part of turkey where asia and europe kind of meet each other that is one of the most important shipping traffic lanes in the world so you've got to have this sense that that is somehow protected but with with erdogan who's been traditionally deceptive in his leadership as sort of bid players off to each other whoever is the the most opportune political ally at the time is basically in a country that doesn't have control of itself and that's the risky part with with nato is that you have these you know strategically important places that are not really on board and and that just throws uh... frozen an element uh... that no one sees coming and i think that what nato needs to do is maybe for the short term worry less about the arctic uh... technology that's gonna need to be you know invested there too to ward off russian submarines and more about trying to defend eastern europe because that's where physically and politically things are going to be a risk of falling over the other side and i think i don't want to be dismissive of what's going on in the arctic because as you've told us in the past it it's a real and a clear present danger uh... to that phrase uh... russia has a presence there already so does china and others uh... but this seems to be of a more immediate nature right now i know the president's alone ski was uh... again doing the touring over the last couple days using he was in germany as matter of fact i know you saw that story and basically reminded the german government if you guys don't step up here uh... and and we commit to uh... to to what's going on in right now uh... you're not in the crosshairs but you're gonna get sucked into this militarily uh... poland is in the crosshairs and they realize that i mean that they can see it into to quote sarah palin we can see you know what's going on from our borders there can look at it back yard uh... but germany of course is one of the major powers right there in europe uh... is going to be front and center and so let's be suggested if things don't go well in ukraine uh... that germans can have to get involved militarily and i don't think anybody wants to see that happening so did you know if i guess that it's a kind of a reminder to our guests that he's doing is the professor to simply go around these nations to france and germany and others and say look at don't lose track of this because the old domino theory that we talked about in the sixties is still very much in play here in putin's strategy yet and you know that the political entity is is is delivering very forcefully is just that they like the geopolitical chessboard is moving we're seeing the americans being now evermore committed to active combat back in the middle east which take some way from supporting uh... ukrainian endeavors against russia but the other thing that sometimes gets missed but always there is the energy dependency that germany and france have positioned themselves to be dependent upon russia for so as much as there's the the boy string uh... up to say hey look we've enough putin we've had it you know without russian gas and russian energy still going to europe you're gonna you're gonna get a lot of people out in the cold and there's been some sanctioning of it, there's been some diversion of it, there's been some natural liquid natural gas coming in to try to offset the dependence on russian energy coming in still comes in and there's other trade networks as well between russia united kingdom that still exist and until we, you know, if we're going to deal with them in a soft power strategy we've got to really find ways to make sure that those taps get turned off and that economic dependence isn't isn't as aligned because as long as it's there there's going to be this tolerance for russia to survive in its current state uh... under putin and hope that ukraine can just defend itself as long as it can before the other side calls attrition and says it's over so with that kind of a strategy that's not really convincing but if ukraine was to you know be in a worse position if action were to start say between russia and poland or kaliningrad the piece of russia just above poland anything to come in there to cause an on-the-ground conflict would yes bring the rest of europe into the equation i don't think anyone's prepared for that uh... i'm going to ask you a question right now just as we finish up here which could actually engender another four-hour discussion about this and we'll do that another time i hope uh... there's a US election coming up in november of this year uh... if and it is a possibility if not a probability but a possibility uh... that donald trump becomes president once again uh... i'd hate to think of what that would do to the dynamic here i mean he certainly is aligned with putin uh... does he and one of the things i think that's concerning here as you've talked about is how important nato is to this whole conflict in ukraine nato was weakened considerably during the four years the trump was in the way of those uh... if he returns again does he turn his back on that does he turn off the tap in funding and what does that do to the dynamic right now because clearly in as much as there seems to be you know that some some republicans in the house that are using uh... funding for ukraine as a political football right now uh... with with trump it's not going to be a political football he's just going to take his football and go home uh... which could leave ukraine high and dry is putin ragging the puck now waiting to see what happens in november it's you know it's always scary looking at the crystal ball but uh... you know i think we do have to look into the scary crystal ball uh... in this way the first time that trump came in uh... everyone was surprised including the people around him that he got it which is why in his office he we didn't have the the place loaded with with experts uh... advisors and people had a specific agenda they sort of make it up as they went now this is different trump two point oh would be armed to the teeth with with these folks who have a very clear agenda of what the world should look like and i think the first move would be exactly that to basically weaken nato to the point where it's just back to being a european censored organization and and canada but uh... we we uh... we don't feel our commitments very well as is so we would the with the u.s. and nato the thing is going to be in real real peril but that's something that that trump could do and if there is the president of the leading up where there is continued conflict with the u.s. in the middle east as a result of the uh... the israel hamas and maybe spreading into to places like iran if that gets served up to trump if he wins uh... all bets are right off because you're going to be dealing with iran and uh... and washington that will have very little regard for international order now that's really scary when you have two belligerents that have got chemical biological warfare wet weapons at hand that's something that we might want to remind ourselves of but the last thing is that if there is a conflict that breaks out between now and the election under biden's biden's watch the u.s. traditionally has been very reluctant to change the commander in chief if there's active war that breaks out not saying there's going to be a full declaration of war between now and then but if it goes in that direction that would be the one thing that might turn the tide back for the democrats to hold the white house if not uh... other branches of government well yeah as you say i mean because we've seen that happen already i mean you've got a democrat white house right now but you still got uh... especially in the in the house uh... republican control uh... and and you don't know where that's going to go i mean as you say with uh... the new and speaker of the house there and and the political ideologies that uh... that they seem to embrace right now i guess would be a massive understatement of the states to suggest that this year twenty twenty four uh... is going to be very very pivotal to to the dynamic we're going to see going forward uh... in this in this whole global picture not just the middle east uh... but what's happening in eastern europe as well exactly i mean we've i think some of the the predictors the the forecasters were thinking that who china taiwan this could be the year for that because there's election in taiwan uh... we see some moves being pulled in india as well as being a place that could have potential conflict around its borders even internally uh... but now it's uh... this chessboard has moved so quickly to to bring the u.s. into a position where it could have active engaged uh... conflict on the ground again in the middle east and if that occurs whoever's gonna hold that white house uh... the pieces are gonna fall in very very different ways uh... we only hope that that they see that that these things are connected ultimately that uh... a war in the middle east is an advantage to to vladimir putin's goal of continuing russian aggression in eastern europe well and president g's goal to in the south pacific which again is something we'll have to touch on another time uh... professor always a pleasure thank you so much for spending some time with us today i really appreciate it it is the ability to take care that's a doctor robert he was shot from downtown university and that's it for this edition of the bill kelly podcast until next time bill kelly podcast brought to you by wasn't law personal injury lawyers wasn't even choose to get injured you can choose the right lawyer wasn't law nine oh five five two two eleven oh two wasn't law dot com