6.11.26 Subspaces

Good evening folks, and welcome to Thursday Evening Subscriber Spaces, June 11, 2026. I think. We're in information-only spaces, don't make a transaction without professional advice, and I'm not your professional advisor. Well, we had a very interesting day today. As I said, you don't wait for a war to end to gain position. In order to be fully positioned, markets price things in beforehand. We don't even have knowledge of a document, which doesn't have any ink, about a 60-day negotiating period. And yet oil is $84, it's $5 from below the 200-day moving average. And as I pointed out and posted, if Iran doesn't make a deal before the 200-day moving average is crossed, why would you make a deal? If oil is down, and our market share is growing, we're just going to see oil go lower and lower and lower, and then where's Iran ever going to find their oil for sale? So, it's, uh, by the way, are you able to hear me? Give me a thumbs up. This afternoon's been a little nutso. I need a thumbs up that you can hear me. Um, uh, was anyone able to hear? Uh-oh, can we hear? Okay, great. So, we had kind of this news today, and I've been articulating what is the pain trade of the market. The pain trade of the market is the bull flattener. Because of the inner engine of the mortgage volatility engine, if you have a parallel flattener, forget even a bull flattener, first of all, the longer duration go up faster in price, a fixed amount of yield change creates more absolute price change, but in a rally, you get shorts caught, and literally almost everybody is short the bond. And what's the level? 485? 28? Multi-month? Um, stocks are twice the market value of bonds, or the outstanding notional value of bonds. I think every time that's ever happened, stocks stopped going up. Not necessarily that day. We may get a crossover between VX, VXSMH, and VX, and the move index. How crazy is that? News up, semis, news down, semis. As I told you, I'm getting out of mortgages into only duration. Mortgage volatility is elevated, treasury volatility continues to decline to an a-year low, quarterly close, monthly close. I went on Spaces earlier. I almost threw up. Talking about how much money they made in SanDisk. They didn't even know what its price was at the beginning of the year. They don't know what the market cap was, and they're just saying it's going over half a trillion. These people, I find to be very, very dangerous. Okay, let me see this. Okay, um, S-N-D-K. Oh, you know what I can do on my phone? Okay, so SanDisk is right now worth $275 billion, and it's up 4,600% this year. Okay, so, uh, 275, 275 divided by, let's call it 46. So there's about $6 billion. They don't even know that? What is the matter with these people? So, they say, oh, it's half a trillion, trillion, and they throw out all these numbers. And one guy says, bonds, they're boring. I don't know anything about them. And I was going to say, you know, the bonds had an important event today. Despite all the policy support for the long end of the curve, we've been flattening for nine months since September 2nd, 2025. The knob, the note over the bond, the 10 to the 30. We had the five-year, seven-year curve touch its 200 week. A bull flattener is a huge pain trade for the market. Trump's war with oil, spike growth, interest rates down 7%, and took our four-year high price down, and people have amnesia. It's just so grotesque that they're just encouraging people to crowd into something that went up 46 times in one year. It's so unbelievably outrageous. It's so grotesque. It's so disgusting. It's so disgusting. So yesterday we were having some discussion about action. What is action? Least action. Feynman's math, his diagrams. Going from point A to point B, every path is taken. Some just much less than others, and some canceled out, and the residual leaves the powerful center distribution. Instead of interference, annihilation, it's interference, or it's complementary interference. Amplification. That's why you see a lightning bolt from the sky to the ground. That's why a beam of photons goes in, incidence and reflection out. We have a 60 volatility in semiconductors. That's about 4% a day. That's an enormous amount of energy. It's very, very, very, very, very, very, very difficult to go the speed of light. You have to have no mass. No mass. No mass. Or we take all the energy in the universe to move something of mass at the speed of light. So, um, when you have this bigger market cap, it's tough to move it. It's Herculean, Atlas. We had the dollar at a buck and a quarter before the Trump announcement. Someone who I blocked said, it's weak. No, it's reacting from a high. It's weak. I don't like when people just articulate nonsense like they know what they're talking about. It's one thing to say, is it weak? Or is it just reacting? That's one thing. But to say it's weak, it's distracting. It's troubling. Okay. There's a big problem that people don't understand. For many of you, you remember the heat I took for May 10th, May 11th, because of the cycling out of Liberation Day, April 21, it took a little while. We were below that yesterday. So they rallied markets under high volatility. Let's see how long they hold. The bond market looks very delicious. The bull flattener, very good. That's a big problem for other people. I was trying to articulate things. I was exhausted. The nonsense, the insanity, the humanity. Uh, what was I going to do? What was I going to look at? Uh, oh. Devol and Bitcoin. In order to lift Bitcoin, Let's go to crypto. Crypto. Okay. Bitcoin up to 63.5. Bitcoin volatility down to 43.26. Add them up. You're 106.8. That's a low. And then, you know, I asked, How do you get to the compliment of 100? Is it 65.35? Is it 60.40? Is it 30.70? And now you have, um, You had a dry volatility down two points for every point you moved up Bitcoin. Two points for every point you moved up Bitcoin. And now, it's down. And so, what? Oh, we got to watch this. Ooh. Um, well, yikes. Okay, um, we're at 106 and change. That's the lowest Hamiltonian in the system. All these Nick fam, I'm watching the pictures of Nick fam suffering. And then all of a sudden. Okay. Oh, yeah. Okay, I was just. Okay, I was just watching the Nick fam. So, when we talked about action yesterday, least action, The lifeguard who spends more time on the beach than in the water. Because you go through it faster. Think of volatility as water. It interferes with the speed. It has an energy. We have an eight-year low on treasury bonds of volatility. We have a Fed that doesn't want to cut, and we have a very high two-year yield. The curve has been inverting. I've been getting more pure durations. And these people say, they don't even want to know about bonds. They don't even want to know about it. It's boring. It's boring until it hurts. All right, can I get a customer up? Can someone say something? I'm so exhausted. Today was just thrilling. It was thrilling. We had that massive flattener. Now we have a massive yield decline. Hmm. Okay. Oh, here we go. We got somebody. Stankard with a tankard. What's going on? Stankard with a tankard. A little different today than yesterday, huh? Definitely, David. Definitely. I signed off early last night. I apologize. And then I went back and listened to you. A couple questions. One, do you know that house from 1658 that somebody had asked you about? It's right next, it's right near the library and my old auto repair shop. It's pretty amazing that that's that old. Yeah. I don't know how it's still standing. In Hingham, they got a lot of these homes from the 1700s, not tall, and they got the labels on it. And then in Quincy, you have the two, you know, John Adams and his son's homes, which are not very tall. Amazing. So last night, when I went back and listened, if I understood you correctly, you said you were getting nervous, so you sold out about 75% of the mortgage by the end of tomorrow, I think is what you're... I'm out now. I'm already out. You're out now, okay. And so, and that was due to the mortgage volatility? No, that's due to this war was about to end, the price of oil. Iran had to make a deal before oil took out the 200-day moving average, or there'd be no gasoline price support, and that Trump could stay there until the Iranian currency collapsed. And then the regime would be overthrown by the military. What's their leverage over us? Gasoline prices, right? That's it. Don't you agree? Yeah, definitely. So what happens when oil, which was on its way, it was on its way, it was going to go through there, all the oil that's leaking, the LNG, the fact that refineries aren't working, so you don't need as much crude oil, then they're never going to stop printing, they're not going to like, oh, let's cut back, because they're all going to cheat. And so then you've calculated more strips, if I understand correctly. So what I wanted is, listen, it worked out that they ended it today, or they did something serious today. What if it went the other way? It's just, there's a huge shortage of treasuries, everyone is short duration, curves have been flattening, that's a pain trait. Mortgages are being rolled off, it's elevated volatility, and bonds are falling volatility, because two-year volatility is going up. Because they're not going to hike, and the curve is flattening, it's putting upward pressure on that and the dollar. You know, so I was afraid the bond market would rally too much. Apparently it was not a misplaced concern, right? I had so many short calls on TLT. I cleaned them all up. I got rid of all of them by the end of last week. And now mortgages have an embedded short option. I don't want to be short volatility. Understood. And you mentioned, obviously, we talked about it yesterday too, that even if they do sign a deal, whether or not that paper holds up is obviously a big question. And an unimportant one. But in the short term, do you think there's any noise that could come from the worst meeting next week? No, no, no, no, no, no. He's going to tell them, look at these oil prices. Look at the future oil prices. It's a 15% decline in the price of oil. So you could focus on short-term inflation. But how about next year? Is that where we're going to hike the cut? It's nuts. So do you think you'll wait to start accumulating mortgages again if there's a deal? No, I'm done. I'm done. I'm out. Why would I want losers? I think they're going to underperform. They have ballasts. They have giant parachutes on them. The curve's flattening. What does that mean? That means that the long end, the volatility is evaporating to the long end. Did you see the move index today? It's 0.7236 from a death cross monthly. That's like geologic, tectonic. And it could go lower. Stuff's going to go lower and lower and lower. And what happens when stocks start rolling over? They had, yesterday, two of the panelists said on their buy, one said, I'm going to buy the 10-year. The other one said, I'm just going to buy the 2-year. Stocks are overpriced in tech by an ocean. So they're going to move into the low beta. They're going to move into the treasury. What feels strong to you? Huh? Microsoft? Or Notes and Box? Adobe. It's about to give up $200 from $600. The whole thing's a mess. It's a mess. They're still buying tech stocks. These people are insane. What if they said, Sam Allman, we've got to cut the price. We've got to get some revenue by the time we get to, by the time we do our offering, we've got to have a little more revenue. Let's cut the price. Right? Is that what he said? All right. The next TLT was over today again, right? 11.36 or something. Yeah, because the 2-year vol is up. They're not kiting. They can't relieve the pressure. And the flattening is the biggest pain trade. Everyone's been seeping for three years, and now they're bigging it. This isn't seen that way. Absolutely. The pain trade is the bull flattener, which will eventually hurt the banks, which are the second largest sector. And then it's over. But I was feeling that I'm not going to ride some chaos event with mortgages of that size. I want stability, which is fine. But what if you get on a new level of crazy? Well, I also think you made a great comment. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. What comment? You have to think about the world as a volatility before you start thinking about the treasury curve as volatility. Yeah, you have to think of the world as volatility curve first. And then you have to think about the world as a volatility curve. And then you have to think about the world as a volatility curve. You have to think of the world as volatility curve first. And then you can look at the treasury, excuse me, volatility curve. Well, treasury, you have the least amount of volatility in treasuries. You got a ton everywhere else. Globally, you look at gold, silver, oil volatility, they're down by half. Bitcoin volatility, you don't have any entropy. You're losing your energy. It's all focused in, you know, Sandisk and Micron. They're all gleeful. After listening to some of these Bitcoin calls and others, you just, the buy this, hit mentality. You're down by half. You ever think of lighting up on a rally? What will they do when it's down more than 80? What will they do? They said 80 is the low. They're celebrating the decline in price. This is insanity. I just, I'm nauseous for people. Bitcoin and its volatility are at new lows. Okay, so we're doing the daily, right? And 13 out of 15 curves have entered a daily death cross. Right? Yes. Okay, so a daily is 50 versus 200. When you do a weekly, it's like 250 versus 1,000. Okay? That's too, too much information is going to happen before we get those death crosses. It's just too thick, too much also. So I want something intersessional, like just failing a 1,000 day moving average, not requiring a 50 to cross underneath. And that's me going downhill. It's just so crazy. You've got to see bottoms up and tech down. Don't you bet you'll be seeing that? From your lips to God's ears. Oh, please don't say that. But the bull flattener is a pain trade for the system. It's scary. All these people saying these crazy things that just aren't accurate. Mario Awfulnawful? What's he going to do with his modifications about Trump? Well, you're already seeing the narrative come out, you know, against the signature deal with, like, Cargisland, Blockades, and other things. Now it's, you know, the Deocon is trying to push an agenda. All I know is the bond market was looking way too... Currents were way too weak. Right? They had to get out. They had to get out of the... They had to get out of the mortgages. If you could have only waited a day, I would have been all the way out. I mean, they go up, but they go up much slower. They go up much slower. Don't you get a sense things aren't going to work out in socks? Wouldn't it make sense for the money to go back to the bond market? Definitely. I mean, I've felt that for over a year. Rockefeller got screwed on the back nine of .com, and he didn't want to own falling multiples, so now he goes to places that have no multiples. Or regulations. Period. Give me a break. Someone come up and say something. I'm crying. I mean... It's so crazy. They're all saying Trump lost. Iran... had to agree. Before oil broke down. Or we'd have no incentive for settling. All right, who else is coming up for a little beating? I'm traveling tomorrow. I think the bonds are stable enough, so... It'll be much cooler weather over there. Six feet in the evening and morning. Shaded. There's always shade around the house. So... I can't be up late, but... Anybody else want to come and say something? I mean, it's like, today to me was like... Insane. Big bang. Nuts. Sid Kelly made some limited comment that... that the 1030, the knob is... is the flattest in a year. It's nine months, but... that's not good for financials. Initially, those financials get money and they'll go up, because they say, oh, the earnings are good. The earnings aren't real. Oy, oy, oy, oy, oy, oy, oy, oy. Sammy! My, my, my nephew Sammy's getting married. What's going on, Sammy? Sammy, Sammy! How's it going? How's it going with you all? It's fantastic. I'm a pure duration person right now. I got nothing but duration. You're going long term? Bonds? Bonds. And now I'm going as long as long can get. I'm not going bonds, I'm going strips. Okay. I don't want to tie a balance sheet up to get duration. I want to still duration without a swap. Okay. Because I don't trust the banks. I hear you. Yeah? Things are, uh... up and up? N-n-nobody's thinking about... how flat these curves are getting. And, and how much damage they are. How everybody's short. And they got bailed out by the Trump attack on... Venezuela in December 1025. Commodities rose 43%. In four months. And then in Venezuela... then it really doubled oil prices. Commodities are going right back down. And a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. And yet emerging markets, albeit high oil prices... aren't doing pretty well. Some... many are collapsing. India disaster, Indonesia disaster. And... what happens when the dollar breaks out to the top? Yeah, it'll hurt emerging markets more. It'll hurt? Go study your July 2nd, 1997. It's a real problem. Yeah. Yeah, the, uh... the, uh... dollar index could get to 110. Honestly, it'll 120. And 130. Tech stocks... had a weak economy... that didn't use any capital. And they took the capital. And now we can use the, the... you know... I hear you. So, uh, you're still... bullish on... BTC... time? Yeah. Well, have you... have you done the Hamiltonian? Have you added up... BTC and its volatility? And cracked that? Yeah. With the multiplier? Yeah. No, no, no, not the multiplier. That's a different thing. Add... BTC plus default times... Oh! You mean, uh... the constant, the thousand to the... Yeah. Okay. Okay. It's a new law today. It's not a spike. Like February 5th... which was the air break... the parachute. It's a new law. 106. What's gonna happen... when it goes through 100? Would you have 70 BTC... in a 30 ball? 60 in a 40? You know... the smaller that number is... the... the less you're gonna have. So what are you gonna do? Go down to 90... and then you have a 60... at low... on the... you know... and then... and then... and then... uh... 30 on the volatility. New law on the volatility. New law on the... on the price. It's just... Do you think there's any hope? Of course there's no hope. Salem's got coins. He's gonna sell a million coins fast. I mean... he's gonna sell 100,000 coins fast. And when he does... everyone's gonna say... Oh! He said... the guy, uh... the CEO said on TV... a day or so... today or yesterday or whatever... He said we sold 32... just to make sure we had the plumbing working. So... That's the money. Yeah. To... to inoculate the market. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I mean... where's FDRC trading 5% below? They don't have the money. They just don't have the money. It's a disaster. And how... I don't understand how he then went on to... sell 32... and then buy a couple thousand back. And that was at 55. And so now we've got 4 million bucks. He said that the 32 sale was just... to kick the tires on the plumbing... because it's easier... um... to buy than it is to sell. Yeah. IQ talks about... um... MicroStrategy could be the new FTX... and call it the great new low. I... I don't think it's his fault. I don't think so. Um... I think just... they claim... it can't hold 10,000. I don't think it can hold 10,000. I don't think it's close. I always said that, right? I always said that. Yeah, I... I still don't believe it. I'll believe it when I see it. No, when it gets there... then I'll give you the call that it's 1,000. I don't know... I don't know if I'm going to get to 100. But... you know... what happens when Saylor has to dump his coins? Somebody else will buy. That's... that's wrong. I don't have a... I don't see that. I don't see that. My... my working hypothesis is that... if the... if they're... if they're buying stocks... Not yet. You're talking for later. But... I mean... they've already pierced that veil once. They say in 2008... why shouldn't they... do that again? They will, but not yet. Wait for them to do it... to react. That's my view. Yeah, I see. And... Treasury is obviously... investing in the companies... the government is buying... so it feels like it's all... subsidized equity markets. It's the timing. It's the timing. It's the timing. Okay. Alright. I'm also bearish... but in the... next two, three months... I think we'll be... seeing more of a sideways action. No shot. No shot. No shot. Yeah. Because you don't... what's your Hamiltonian? What's the... what's the force? You know... the momentum is lower... and the... and then the... and then the volatility... is deteriorating. You lose your energy... for a counter-trend. What was the fuel... for the... for the... 59... 9 low? I think I'd be right. Oh my God, I'm so tired. I forgot what I just said. 59... 9 low. Right. Even now... it hasn't spiked back up to... the high levels it was at. Yeah, but they've already dropped. Yeah. They don't have any money. The whole thing's unwinding. Everything. Everywhere all at once. Unless they've lost in commodities. It's unbelievable. So... would you short Bitcoin now? No. Because I'm just so lazy. So why would I... why would I waste my time... with that Nikola Zayn stuff? I mean... from 60k down to 10k... that'd be pretty rich. No. I want to bleed off more volatility. You know, I want to... You think you'd want to sell them all? No, no, no. I want the system to sell them all. Because I know they will. And I'll do other stuff. Okay. Right. My working hypothesis is that... in the bear market... which we tend to have every 4 years or so... Well, you're going to get rid of that 4-year cycle... a lot of times this year. Anyway, please continue. Yeah. On the down market... it tends to... go sideways, slightly up. Maybe in the context of... 3-4 months. It would say... 20% gain. I don't know about that. What are you going to do? You have a 90%... You move volatility from 50 to 90, I'd say. 5% gains gain. That's a lot of fuel. That's a lot of energy. We're losing all the energy. I see what you're saying. Okay. We're melting tabs. There's nobody making enough money selling the puts... to keep selling the puts. Right? Yeah. So you don't believe this... this is a generational... reserve value asset. There is... a value asset... there to that all. I believe that... computers go really fast... and they'll do a lot of things... and everything else is nonsense. Okay. We will still need a sort of value. Do you think gold will do that? It'll be the dollar first. I don't understand that. We're the best in a bad crowd. I guess so. Time will show. I don't think we're going to... end up losing a decimal. I don't see how we don't lose two. I don't know what you're looking at, Craig. Look at Bitcoin and EVOLT charted. It's a disaster. It's getting worse. I'm looking at it in a... BTC dollar price chart... and to me it looks like a... population upon saturation... over time... decaying growth rate... and... I see people that own it... that want to sell the volatility. Okay. We'll see how it goes. Well, but... I'm much more deterministic... than we'll see. I mean, you're a serious person. You're not the idiot that I... that I tweeted. You're a smart guy. And... and I... I don't understand... how I can't make you see it. No, I see the... the EVOLT... you know... volatility coming down... and... it makes sense that the volatility... is coming down, right? Because... Whether it makes sense or not... it's a fact. Right. The employee volatility... in the audience pricing... needs to come down... because... there needs to be... cheaper pricing... to invite more spectators... to come in. And... But there are going to be more sellers. The lower you go... the more sellers are the ETFs. Because they will not be able... to generate deals... you're saying. Yeah. Yeah, someone said... they're going to arbitrage... your parking lot with streets. The problem is... it's over. It's over. You don't have to get over it. Believe me, another 25%... you know how screwed people are... when Bitcoin goes down... another 25%. Down to 45%? Yes. I think it will happen. Of course it will happen, but... what are people going to be talking about... that night? The people are... That's the moment we should buy. And we're going to 240. It's not about... it's not about the low... it's about... durable low. Okay. It's not durable low... I think there's a... a large crowd of people... who are... you know... doing the math... that's decaying. Excuse me. There is nobody... doing a Hamiltonian. Nobody... who's ever been off... nobody. It's only me. Nobody's dealing... with that stuff. It's too theoretical. It's just... the velocity... is unbelievable. But there will come a time... when the Hamiltonian... will also switch... around the prices. Yeah, but that could be... a 10, a 20. It's 106. No, the combination. Uh-huh, yeah. No energy. No energy. No energy. No energy. I think there's... still... a structural bid. So... I'm less deterministic... than Wilkinson. That's all. I would be a buyer... at 40k. Okay. We'll see. I... I... I wish we wouldn't see. Okay. I wish... I wish you'd dig deeper. I'm thinking maybe... superficially... from your perspective... the Hamiltonian... that... sure... shows... as a metric. It's like if there's... the gauge... on my speedometer. But... it doesn't... change... the structural bid... that I anticipate... with... um... you know... the funny money dynamics... that are happening. The social unrest... that's incubating... uh... in the U.S. and... you know... the world view that we had... that... Wall Street would do poorly... and Main Street would do well... seems further and further out. And it's the tech stocks... that aren't doing well... and in the meantime... NAIC... you know... They don't have the revenue. They don't have the revenue. That's what they've often said. They don't have the revenue. Yeah, well... Andropic has it. So... whether it's... uh... you know... good AI or flawed... there will still be... uh... a bid for... AI, I think. You're dying. No, I'm falling asleep. I'm so... No, I can't for the minute... because of my dog. No, it's just... I... I just see the whole thing... unwinding. Yeah. Okay. I... I hear you. The curves are all melting. Nobody's talking about... The longer something happens... and it's going unnoticed... the more... impact they'll all have. Because people will rebalance... when they figure... and then they'll push the... trajectory further. Yeah. I hear you. I think there are a lot of people... who believe in that narrative... that... 60K was a low... and there might be a sweep of it... and they're holding out. So... I don't think the bear market's over. I think there will be... I don't think it started. Wow. They... You know, they've been cutting... like drunken sailors. No steepening. No flattening, I mean. Power went minus 57. Minus 137... you know... for... for... transportation. What am I saying? It... Greenspan did not cut... until the NASDAQ fell 57. What do you want to do? That's what they did. They did nothing. So you'd want to wait... for the policy response? I want to wait for them... to run out of policy response. I want the chamber empty. The first set of cuts... were more effective. The second... they had to throw everything in there. QV, QE, more mortgages. Yeah. OK. We're checking in with you all. I know you wanted to... end the space... so I don't want to... But do you see how big... semiconductor volatility is at 60? Yeah. That's too much. It's too much. That's the problem. Traders are going to have such a party. It's like... they'll open a position... they'll just... just wait there for it to hit. All right. Thank you for coming out. Don't be a stranger. A stranger, good. Stranger, don't be a stranger. OK, we need you more. We need you more. But you recognize... that it's working out... as we discussed, right? Even through a war. We had a war. I'll be the decimal one... and then I'll really pay it. What level can you say... you know what? That decimal box is... seeming more reasonable. Yeah, at 25K. OK. Well, how about a faster move down... and a smoother move down? Faster, then a smoother move. As in if we got to 25K tomorrow. The faster you go down... the more you can get a bump. If you don't get a bump... then it's going to go slow and low. Yeah. Volatility is an air brake. Yeah. I hear you. I... I'm not really... a big fan of... trying to force people... into acknowledging the position. But in this case... you've made it clear... you're bullish... and I'm trying to shake you out of it. I'm saying I'm more like... I will be bullish. So you're a contingent... You're a contingent bull. I'm a contingent bull. I'm bearish. I actively... actively have been carrying Ashford... but I'm contemplating closing him. OK. But... it's a mess. All right. Thanks for coming up. You got to talk to me. OK. Anybody else? Victims? Victims? Anybody want to be a victim? In that case... we're going mute. I'm going to close. Because I am totally falling apart. With that... thank you very much. Oops. Wrong button.