2.25.26 subspaces morning

The speaker discussed various topics on Polarity Radio's Subscriber's Space, including reflections on past events, Bitcoin volatility, mortgage volatility, and market trends. They highlighted the importance of understanding price movements and shared insights on financial and economic dynamics. Additionally, they mentioned interactions with an individual named Mike Allred and delved into details about trades, funds, and legal aspects. The conversation also touched on market updates, such as NASDAQ futures, S&P performance, Bitcoin trends, and sector movements like in XLP and utilities. Good morning everyone and welcome to Subscriber's Space on Polarity Radio. We are informational on all of our stages, don't make a conjecture about professional advice and I'm not your professional advisor. I'm delighted to be with you today to discuss a few interesting things that happened since yesterday's close of the financial markets. We had the standing meeting last night and when I saw those wonderful boys with their gold medals I felt just so bad about what's going on in this country that we couldn't have the women's gold medal hockey team, that we were able to have both of them be celebrated because people are humiliated into inaction to make the country feel better about each other. It's disgusting. But I also thought about what we used to call that victory in 1980 over the Soviet Union at such a crucial time of the humiliation of the Jimmy Carter presidency and how he gave Iran to the Ayatollah. He run and pulled the shot who was not a great guy and how he just allowed Iran to parade our people around and did nothing. Do you recall that victory in 1980, the most exhilarating thing I think nationally we experienced since the landing on the moon, although it might have surpassed it and that was called the miracle on ice. And folks I'm telling you today we're going to teach you about the miracle of price. The miracle of price is truth, it's perfection, it's reality. I was just watching overnight Bitcoin volatility get slammed and I put up in the posts this morning, let me see if I can quickly swing it up, Bitcoin complimented with its own volatility. It's just new lows, multi-year lows, things aren't always calibrated to our thinking, but when things move and make new progress, it's important and we got to a 116,743.23 or 116.743 depending on how you do the math, we just say pressure lows and what that's telling you is structurally in order to be able to get Bitcoin up, you have to have all these put sellers crush vol because of the natural selling of volatility. So we're now at 65 and look how little volatility we have left. We're close to getting rid of the 5. We lost so much, what happens when we lose the next 10 and we get back down to 40? And then what happens when we lose the next, and then we're just losing energy over there. So is it a tradable thing on a day basis? No. Is it a powerful signal about the loss of entropy, the loss of energy, the loss of focus because there are so many other places for people to trade chaos, meaning try to drive through your oppositional party. And in fact, even in Bitcoin, just trade on the short buys, again, not advice, but that people are so paranoid about how well it's going to do. We just lost almost 10 points, 8 points as I watch right now, 8 points of Bitcoin volatility and all I got is 3. We're down 11.23 percent, earlier we were down more when I took that, what is that shot? We're down 11.77 percent in volatility. We're down four and a quarter percent in our complement, the vol and gamma. Nobody's going to talk about this. Nobody cares. Okay. And then we have the Mortgage Bankers Association. We're above 8 percent, so this is toxic to banks. They sell volatility, strategy sells volatility, Bitcoin volatility is being sold, but mortgage volatility is being sold, just like bank volatility is being sold, and the system is selling volatility in mortgages, it's selling volatility in equity, and Powell keeps on pumping up the volatility by rolling up these mortgages and making it unaffordable for Americans to afford homes. He is a very sick individual. Balance the buying and inflation on the backs of wealthy, not on working class, but that's where the voters are. They're sick, these people. But we did go back to 150 refi, cleaned out a whole bunch of months, and you watch what happens. As rates are now lower than then, and we have this weather in our rear-view mirror. Purchases still leak. Purchase is much more important than refi, and when you think about it, the failure to lift, issuance, origination, is a clear path, it's like a blocking tackle opening up a channel, feed a run-through. So why is that? Because you're not getting the supply yet. You're not getting the supply that we're going to get later. We had higher prices on a quarterly basis, annualized, than we had on manualized. That means we are accelerating higher. We have the least amount of debt in houses. But it's the miracle of price. Price tells a story. I was on Lobby yesterday, if you want to watch a comedy show. I was with my best friend growing up. He came to town. He has a flight early in the morning. He came from Vermont. Wonderfully, he's moving down to South Carolina. I'm so excited, because I was not going up to that Canadian border where it's freezing up there. But I'll go down to South Carolina to visit. He'll be able to get up here sooner. What is that? Oh. So we went for lunch. And then we're sitting in the lobby of his hotel. Nobody's there. Because of the snow and the planes, there's nobody in the hotel. There's nobody in the hotel. So I'm on the lobby show, the Because Bitcoin. And Mike Allred comes on there. And I end up starting to scream at him. He's just, in my opinion, lying through his teeth. He's saying things that just can't be true. His friend, I guess, he has a long, short bandwidth of 250, 300. And he's saying that he could short up to 100 million of silver. And I call him out. And I said, well, I'm not doing it. That's the thing I mean. He says, he's doing it with S. So I said, yeah, I know you're doing it with SLB. But it's the same thing. It's an ETF. Physical or futures. The CME just raised margin requirements three times. There is no prime broker. He says, who am I using? I said Goldman. I don't know who he's using. And then he says, he can do it. It's an equity. Calling it a commodity ETF, an equity, is the absolute difference with a distinction. It's not. So he says, all this crazy stuff. So I said, I'm starting up a fund. And he says, this is my custodian. I said, well, Goldman Sachs. And then he says, oh, so I tell him that I'm using Riptide. So he says that, oh, so I don't have a fund. I said, I have a client who's staking with 100 million. Not all day one. And those are mine. You can have whatever you want. Yeah. No. She's on your bottom line. So, that's right. So, he says, oh, you don't run the fund. A hedge fund is not even a thing. It's called a limited partnership. Hedge fund is just nomenclature for trying to hedge this off of that, which is not what I'm doing. It means you're taking discretion over other people's capital that can be stacked, combined, blended. And in order to try to undermine me and say I'm not at that level, he says, I'm not doing that. So, I say, I'm not interested in paying $200,000, $250,000 for legal and annual maintenance, for audit, oversight, and all of these different things until you're sitting at $250 million when it's only 10 basis points. And he says, I was able to get it done for 20. He was able to get it done for 20 grand. And I'm like, the lowest I've ever heard is someone doing it for $125,000. And I'm not interested in those guys. The guy is so nuts. He just wants to pump up. Like, he bought Irene at $1. And, you know, that's just my view. But he just, I don't think he's a good guy. He's just trying to bag hold people, lay away some people. So, that was some wild engagement. Might be worth a little interest if it's posted somewhere. Importantly, miracle of price. These yields were at the lows. We're levitating, right? Two basis points. Trump talks about all this spending. The Japanese yield is up four basis points or something like that for their one piece of paper. Mundi, yesterday we spoke about, oh, yeah, their 30-year is up 10 basis points. Their 10-year is up 3.8 basis points. What's his name? Workday is down 10% pre-market. So, he wants a 401k for everyone. And he wants to match everyone 1,000 every year. He said you can't gobble up homes that aren't new. Spoke about safe the economy. That was great. Trump's advice was to keep it domestic. And even CNBC called it domestic. We have a 10-year at 406. We have an auction today for the 5-year, an auction tomorrow for the 7-year. We're losing rate structure in the U.S. The Japanese yield surge overnight was not able to lift our rates very much. Oops, get over there. We had 9 basis points on the 40-year and 10 on the 30-year. And we said Mundi was putting on a steepener. But steepener out the curve. They're buying the 10s and they're selling the 30s. So, they steepened the curve 7 basis points. It's just liquidity. Short term, it won't last. In the short run, fixed income will move the liquidity. But if Mundi is wrong, they should be putting a platter on. The largest fund was 2.34 trillion euro. Which is 2.8 trillion in the U.S. And they're putting on a stupid trade. And they're allowed to do it. And we watch until the market runs over those clowns. The NASDAQ futures are up 46, 45 versus 34. You've got 11 basis points of expansion. The S&P is less than 2% from an all-time high. And Bitcoin is sitting on its butt. It's up at 66. And people are excited. They're very excited. They shouldn't be. What else? All right. Yesterday, we had XLP up 87 basis points to a new monthly closing high equivalent. The highest weekly close, as well as certainly the highest monthly close. And we have two days left. Well, three days. We still have today. Three days left to close the month. Utilities up 111 basis points. Highest monthly close ever. Highest weekly close ever. And highest daily close ever. Staples Healthcare took a little bit of a hit. Down 42 basis points. As people sold healthcare to buy what they considered to be cheap tech. And when you look at Amazon, down from 258, so it's down 50, down 20-some-odd percent. Or about 20%. But, if you look at the 5-year chart, you'll see 188.65, 196, that's 750. That's like 4%. So, we cleaned up that gap. Amazon has a lot of gravity between it and a support level. XLC, $4, 4% from its record price. XLK is almost 13, so at 9%. Okay. What I'd like you folks to get is that the reason it's taking a while is the locality, the stability of price caused by Powell weakening the dollar. His supported earnings and earnings estimates, free cash flow. He can't do that anymore. You're watching these rates deflate. And it will go down faster later. As I always say, I feel almost like Whitby, or whatever the guy's name is, asked me for the hamburger today for payment Tuesday. But as I said, you could watch volatility trend lower as a precursor to lower yields, or in this case, lower Bitcoin prices. And those trends are powerful and are observable. But when this guy last night is on saying, you know, it's just dumb. It's just not even reasonable to think that everything is going to go bad at the same time. Folks, that's exactly the day's case. It's not unreasonable. It's the way markets work. Everything, everywhere, all at once. Because algorithms diffuse risk across all asset classes almost instantaneously until equity is unavailable everywhere. And then one thing causes a cascade. And we don't care which one. It's any of them. Lower vol, lower price, doesn't matter. And what we need is we need more price. The Nikkei hit a new high. Those rates are not going to allow them to keep on hitting new highs. Those rates are going to attract money. Steve Leaston really hates Trump and he lets it leak out every time he opens his fat mouth. Disgusting. And he's not a journalist. Not a journalist. Apparently, the report is that NVIDIA has a 5% earnings move. As it's implied volatility, state of parity. It's lowest in a while. There's a lot of skepticism. There's a lot of money that needs to get out. Okay. Oh, okay. I'm going to read something from SB. Because I take the Merritt Parkway. Or the Merritt Highway. I don't know. Is it the same one? I don't understand exactly. So he's basically saying, I'm describing why the Oprah is important. I am two-thirds into where I want to be with the third year. Cutting coupon for as long as it takes. See, Dick's sustaining in 40s. I mean, I don't know how high the Nick's goes. You know? There's just so much money out there. A volatility spike in the bull market is a good time to buy. In the bear market, it's not. The way I'm looking at it is when bond yields stop falling or rather when NASDAQ, when the S&P stops getting dragged down by yields, that's what I want to buy. Because I think I think that the bond is going to continue accelerating versus its sheer opposition, sheer stress. The steepener. The steepener goes away. The steepener inverts massively. No one on terra firma has that. Nobody on earth There's not one person on earth. There's only one person who feels they're going to invert hundreds of days of bonds. Not one. And there's no pricing for it. That's my base case. And it's going to do terrible damage to a lot of institutions. And because of that, they're going to be reluctant to raise rates fast enough. So, what are they going to do? Toss a dollar slide. And I think it's going to create a lot of deflation. On the other side of massive deflation. Anyway, does anybody have any questions, comments, concerns, considerations? The miracle of price just like the miracle of ice. We're getting closer to the breakdown in yields. We're getting weaker in volatility. We want to get back into the 50s. We want to get into the low 50s. The only thing I wish is Trump would shut his mouth on the stock market thing. Stop that nonsense. Now there's enough time. And we can have strength in the S&P. Even as that rolls over. From lower rates. Okay folks, nobody wants to come up. We're jumping over to the new fall show. I think this works better. Usually a squawk doesn't last that long. We've been doing it for hours. I really enjoy it. But we got to bring in and help other people. These brainwashing people. They're so scary. And the more fresh blood we get into the chats, the more quality information we'll get. But folks, this 10 year got a lift from Japan. Got a lift from the speech. We have the auction. We've got to watch the flattening of this curve. We've got to watch this long piece of paper. Decay. This TLT go up. The zeros go up. We've got to see that. For confidence and confirmation. I'm confident we'll get it. These people don't understand at a certain point stocks going up at a rate that's slow enough to allow money to go into bonds starts causing bonds to go up fast enough that nothing can compete. It's the miracle of price. And the algorithms are showing their hands. They're selling the puts and we're losing call writers. And we're just going to get that volatility containment and then the money that's naturally coming in to fixed income getting longer duration suppressing mortgage vega or mortgage volatility squeezing the mortgage vega to start. Not good for the banks. But we're going to win and we're going to win so hard. So with that I wish you a wonderful day and we're going to jump over to default. Okay. Thank you.