EP. 36 AUDIO

The podcast host, Bill Kelly, discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East with guest Elliot Tepper, a political science professor. They talk about the Israel-Hamas war and the consequences of the actions and inaction of major global players. They discuss the possibility of an end to the conflict and the challenges in achieving a ceasefire. They also touch on the issue of Hamas' control in Gaza and the concerns about who would fill the void if they were to step down. They mention the expansion of the conflict with attacks on shipping vessels and the involvement of Hezbollah in the north of Israel. They discuss the different opinions on how to move forward and the role of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority. They also mention concerns about the ongoing attacks and the impact on civilians. welcome to the bill kelly podcast critical discussions in critical times here's your host bill kelly and welcome to the bill kelly podcast i'm your host bill kelly good to have you with us today on the never-changing world a global scene and i want to focus on what's happening uh... in the middle east and and the consequences of that or the uh... the hours of the actions but in some cases of the inaction of some of those of the major movers and shakers here on the global political scene to do that we're so pleased to welcome back to our podcast elliot tepper who is of course an emeritus professor of political science at carlton university and also uh... distinguished senior fellow at the norton patterson school of international affairs among many other accolades elliot always a pleasure thank you so much for the time today on the broadcast well thanks good to be with you bill despite the nature of what we talk about well and that's one of the reasons why is what's happening over there when you and i talked late last year which is just a few weeks ago of course uh... we we've gotta hypothesize a little bit about twenty twenty four what may or may not happen and i guess the overarching question a lot of people were asking even two weeks ago uh... was is there going to be an end to this this conflict is war the the israel-hamas war uh... is it going to enrage others and is it going to expand and is it going to bring other people sucking them into it uh... i i see a little bit of the latter more than the former what's your read on what's happened over the last few weeks well the misery continues essentially uh... we are not we're at one hundred and one days and since the hostages were taken out after the mass murders and atrocities committed in israel israel is responding uh... we see the result playbook which hamas has always followed successfully is also being followed regretfully now make an attack uh... expect a response hunker down survive that response the world leans on israel to stop and you do it all again and and and they just said this quote and we'll do it again and we'll do it again and we'll do it again and anthony blinken uh... early on in this said we know what you're up to we're not going to go along with it this time but it's it's just such tragic scenes coming out now of uh... gaza that yes it is working uh... there's increasing pressure on israel to there's a key difference which i think you and i have discussed between humanitarian pause and a ceasefire uh... the pressure is building more and more to do a ceasefire a ceasefire means leave hamas in place to do it all again at some point a humanitarian pause is we all agree we have to stop this for a little while uh... maybe we can get a hostage exchange for prisoners at that time and uh... then you know unfortunately things will resume but right now what's happening is more and more people are being affected in gaza itself israel is absolutely determined to do its uh... original goals which it announced on day one uh... we are we're declaring war this attack on us is war so uh... we will absolutely allow aid to go in we will stop uh... any activity once all of our prisoners all of our hostages are returned and hamas is never again allowed to have operational control of gaza military control or governance that's off the plate that offer has never been taken up and israel's responded accordingly in the way that we are witnessing and there's a lot more detail i can update you on but even on that and let's just go down that road as hypothetical as it may be and probably very much uh... a long shot at best uh... hamas is not going to give up control of what they have in gaza right now uh... they come back and they're retorting in part anyway is we're a duly elected government you know back off uh... you know the palestinians put us here and we can argue just exactly how that happened and where the palestinian authority is on all this but even if they were to have this immediate revelation or epiphany uh... today and say you know what you're right we're leaving we're going to back off uh... who takes over where there's a void there's always a concern about who's going to fill that void and i know that some people are suggesting the palestinian authority has to do that they're not capable nor are they ready nor do they want to well this is called the day after issue and that's been a focus of a lot of attention and a lot of disagreements apparently between uh... the u.s. israel's key backer in all this we are also by the way is uh... u.k. and other democracies are but the uh... the key question is okay suppose you do what you want and israel has just been following this as of today israel is saying we don't need to kill every single hamas uh... supporter we need the leaders gone and gone can be and this is something to keep an eye on uh... exile is now being talked about uh... you agree to leave we get our hostages back maybe we'll release some prisoners so this is the conversation going on right now but to go back to your question the possibility that hamas will remain governing as the governing authority and a military threat to israel this war to go back to your first question when will it end it isn't going to end as long as that set of conditions stays in place and with that in mind of course we have uh... what some people are considering to be the expansion of this conflict you mentioned where past one hundred days here uh... the israeli hostages are still there some place uh... there are renewed missile attacks on on israel now uh... bomb uh... missiles going off in tel aviv but i think more the immediate concern right now well there are two areas uh... one of course uh... are the uh... attacks on shipping vessels that we'll get to in a few minutes here uh... the other is seemingly an expansion of what's going on with hezbollah and and the northern portion of israel right now opening up a second front as it were well let's work our way through this starting in gaza itself israel today reiterated uh... that yes they're now ready to do a lower intensity as opposed to the high intensity conflict that will reduce the uh... terrible carnage we see in gaza the terrible price that's being paid by turning gaza into you know human shields and human involuntary human sacrifices to the mass class so israel is saying okay in the north we'll pretty well have that under control in the south we've got some more goals to reach we're willing to take some of our troops out they need r&r and keep in mind israel's army is largely a reserve army it's a tiny country you know it's ten million people all in all gta plus a few and uh... they pull all these uh... reserves off their jobs these are the people who make the economy run they're all now geared up there so inside gaza unfortunately i think it's likely to be continuing as we see it now but lower intensity should mean lower casualties joe biden wants this off the front page and he's pressing israel hard moving out from there the day after question what you raised uh... there's a real sharp difference of opinion right now it looks as if it looks as if uh... both israel and egypt and we have to remember that egypt is a key player here they control the uh... various uh... access routes but they also don't want any more palestinians on their side of the border they say oh it's for the palestinians own good but they just don't want them there so they're saying okay it looks like right now they're saying what we want is we want the people of gaza to govern themselves but it can't be hamas so we'll find technocrats we will help them we'll help rebuild the place and it looks like egypt and israel are converging on that whereas the u.s. is still saying uh... something you said you scoffed at we'll bring in the p.a. and uh... but the p.a. is very difficult conversations as they say between blinken and uh... matthew abbas has to be rejuvenated and reinvigorated redefined really isn't it i mean let's face it they had the ball at one point and they blew it they were terrible they were voted out of office such as it were in that election well you know i mean you've heard and elliot you and i talked about that back in you know in terms of corruption and ineptitude and things like that and that's still a tag that still hangs on them and hamas really committed a coup against them successfully expelled them militarily from gaza and imposed themselves over the people of gaza after having won an election but they've never gone since and i think mahmoud abbas is in his i have to check 18th year of his four-year term so a lot of rejuvenation needed there but moving on out of this equation yes what about the north what about hezbollah and what we know right now is that hamas fully expected hezbollah to really intervene on their on october seventh they wanted hezbollah to really come in and attack israel at the same time hezbollah said no we're not going to do that we love you we support you we think you're great but uh... we're not going to do that and hezbollah has been signaling for quite some time now that they really are not keen on a war and people take them at face value at that i'm a little concerned because they just accept the status quo and the status quo is about eighty thousand israelis can't go home in the north they've been moved out because every day hezbollah is actually firing rockets and firing missiles and attacking civilian targets but everybody says it's constrained so isn't that a relative term though it's constrained it's not much of a comfort to you if you're the ones who are being targeted by this and your point is well taken i think you and i talked about this one hundred and six days ago uh... when that initial god-awful attack occurred that that was only the latest attack i mean these things have been going on for years they've been going on i guess you could argue since nineteen forty eight but uh... this is the world in which they live in and it's the acceleration of these of these activities i think it's got everybody scared and who is going to react and how is this going to expand if it's going to expand well and right now there are certainly voices in israel who have said we were caught unawares we paid a terrible price we are now fully mobilized we've got everything we need we're going to have to deal with hezbollah sooner or later every day that goes by hezbollah gets more and more stuff from iran they get stronger and stronger why don't we do it now but other voices including from the u.s. have weighed in and said you really don't want another war two front war uh... and stuff coming at you also from the golan heights and so forth from inside syria so so far uh... that has that's the status right now uh... sooner or later there's a reckoning there israel has said there's two ways of handling it's not just israel diplomats analysts around the world say there's two ways of handling the hezbollah situation diplomatically or genetically so some arrangement what we see going on today in gaza has already happened before hezbollah attacks israel hezbollah is bringing death and destruction prospectively on the poor state of lebanon which is essentially a collapsed state they haven't had a president uh... hezbollah operates with impunity a state within a state inside lebanon and then let's continue moving on out from where we were hezbollah so far it is restrained in that sense but then we do move on to yemen because suddenly yemen has come sharply into our news hasn't it so it has uh... let's talk about that and this is i guess this is a response really isn't it elliot to to a move by the united states and the u k and to try to control the the the waters around there uh... and all of a sudden now we've got well i guess we can technically call these uh... civilian uh... shipments that are going back and forth and being attacked by missiles and there's a retaliation is this really just uh... the next step in the accelerations going on or are others being sucked into this and i guess the overarching question i wanted you address as well is there an overarching uh... entity slash and slash uh... iran who is controlling this whole thing absolutely because as we're moving forward what we're finding more and more we're going to end up with iran as being the focus and i think in the year ahead and indeed maybe the months ahead iran is going to come much more into focus you can reframe everything we're talking about is essentially an iranian operation despite having being the leaders of the shia and hamas and sunni they were quite willing to arm, train, plan, provide intelligence and support for hamas this operation we see in front of us uh... it certainly has iranian fingerprints all over it apparently hezbollah was being trained to do the same things but hamas moved first uh... and there's a lot of conversation on the side that well iran is quite willing to let hamas go, they'll sacrifice hamas because after all when the push comes to shove they're sunni they're not shia but they'll never do that for hezbollah, they really need hezbollah they want hezbollah because it's part of the shia crescent part of the expansion of iranian influence they want to be the hegemon of the region and they want the u.s. out and they want saudi arabia under control i've just summarized for you what i think the iranian situation is so right now what's happened is since this has begun iran has been ratcheting up the role of their proxies hamas, yes, hezbollah, yes, but in syria and iraq uh... they've been more and more taxed by their by their proxies supplied, armed, trained against western forces that are there and now the yemenis, coming to that now the yemenis, the houthis within yemen i should say clearly supplied, trained, armed guided by iran there's a lot of talk, well they didn't really create them the way they created hezbollah but the fact is that the houthis could do nothing of any major military activity without iran's backing so this is iran i'll talk a bit about the houthis and what they're doing, the houthis uh... early on said you know we are going to support we hate israel just like everybody else so we're going to support we're going to fire rockets at them well the uk and the u.s. have forces there and they've uh... they keep shooting down these drones and rockets but then uh... uh... this escalated, the houthis started to attack more and more ships including american ships and cargo ships so something formal was put in place it's called, and this is a two-part answer coming about the houthis the formal grouping which canada is part of is called operation prosperity uh... operation guardian control prosperity so this is all about prosperity the u.s. and its allies including us have said we cannot allow commercial economically significant operations to be disrupted by this this shia bunch in yemen because everything coming through the suez canal has to come down through the red sea and the yemen controls the houthis control a very narrow waterway the strait of tears is under their control and they've been choking off commerce so bill you wanted to go and get your tesla you're going to have to wait because tesla said we can't get our stuff from germany down through the suez canal and then operation prosperity uh... guardian uh... is saying we have to protect the global economy and we can't have it shut down like this but the other side of that not clearly as articulated but really a global recession is that it would be bad news for everybody but also the fact is that iran has now had yemen the houthis not yemen the houthis who control about two-thirds of yemen they have now entered the war with all these attacks and what we're seeing in front of us is finally the u.s. and its allies including us has gone from defense please don't do that we're telling you not to do that uh... you're not don't do that you'll pay a cost if you do that into offense so this is really the escalation is from a defensive posture we don't want this war to widen into more of a offensive posture saying well we have to do it but we are making clear this uh... and this is important uh... bill the u.s. and its allies including us are saying we are not what we are trying to do is degrade houthi capacity and to deter them we're not here to destroy them so the u.s. and its allies are saying we're not here really to enter the yemen uh... civil war decisively saudi arabia and the u.a.e. tried that went badly for them with uh... saudi help uh... saudi basically used the houthis in yemen to to uh... batter iran brought iran to the negotiating table and some kind of a truce was uh... fragile truce and i want to add one more thing about iran because that's so far the big picture the u.s. the west can't afford to have the houthis destroy global economies and it's really a way for iran to enter yet open up another front in the war but the people of yemen were already in desperate situation for some reason even though they're just near where all that oil money is they don't have that so yemen for nine years has been at war and it's uh... a terrible uh... uh... humanitarian disaster their illness diseases uh... the form of governance that the houthis are providing is not helping and you've talked about this in past shows with us past podcasts uh... you know just to circle back for a second to what's going on in gaza and they talk about the deplorable conditions uh... and and the fact that aid is not getting through nobody seems to want to pay much attention to the role of how much has been in that uh... enterprise where a lot of stuff is is never really getting to the people and the same thing is happening in yemen but i wanted to ask i guess uh... from a strategic standpoint and on day one of this conflict when israel started to to move in militarily uh... into gaza president biden said you know they're going to be shipped over there were sending ships over to that area not to participate but just to deter any other activity so uh... and again we've talked about the strategic and uh... planning that that goes on in iran for a number of these hours but and as you say they seem to have their fingerprints all over this with the with the houthi attacks on on shipping a strategic element to try to increase or to draw in uh... u u k and and and and and the united states into this in other words to you know their response could be viewed as all of a sudden be participants in this which would justify an escalation on the other half by either her moscow or others like this i mean there seems to be a master plan uh... at play here and if there is in fact one and there seems to be indications that is are the u k in the u s falling into that trap well that's interesting you've raised something here that uh... some of the very best scholarship and and uh... strategic thinking uh... people i follow have been arguing against each other precisely on this point saying bruce farrell who's uh... an advisor to several u.s. presidencies the c.i.a. great analyst has said what the houthis within yemen are doing here is they are trying to elevate themselves up so that they are undoubtedly predominant and preeminent within the arc of resistance and they are trying to be much bigger players and they're willing to pay a cost and they're willing to draw in for their own sake just to puff themselves up so to speak geopolitically and maybe iran behind them like that the other side of the argument by good analysts are saying no uh... the houthis are just being houthis and iran is doing its thing so so far the name of the game is iran is stimulating its proxies everywhere and paying zero cost so in the year and that's the nature of the argument that you were just asking about in the year ahead i think we have to watch for the things we're talking about uh... several different things first in terms of gaza how will it end right now the term of art to keep an eye on is exile well israel will have to make a deal what they really want is hamas gone the leaders don't really want to get themselves killed israel's already killed about a third of of uh... hamas operatives but these are mainly the ones above the ground the people who pull the strings are really either in the tunnels and that's the one israel's trying to hunt down and of course the real political leaders are sitting over in luxury hotels in qatar or they're off in turkey where they're very welcome indeed uh... and they're paying no cost so how do you put that package together so that uh... israel said we're not going to stop and hamas says we want to hold power but if we can't well maybe some package of exile and release of prisoners and hostages so that's being discussed right now meanwhile the hostages are a hundred and one days in hamas captivity but uh... the second thing to keep an eye on as we enter the year ahead is is indeed will iran finally come really into focus bill as and i told my class this watch for this kind of term in the air head of the snake head of the octopus uh... when is iran going to start to be seen as what's happening behind a lot that's happening and how long are they going to be allowed to get away with this and pay no cost sometime or another somebody has to get the head of the snake and i i would add one more thing to that bill in the year ahead watch for iran to come into focus and the possibility they would become a nuclear weapon state and they're well on their way to that and that would be transformative on that point a couple of things and and and and head of one of my compatriots talk about this couple days ago and uh... i just want to throw this on the table for you as well uh... looking at what israel is trying to do and i think is a great debate to be had here but there's true not necessarily what indeed what the goal is but how they're attaining this and the loss of life and and the fact that almost a third of gaza now is is dust uh... is is frightening in and of itself this but how do you fight an enemy who basically says we don't care what you do we don't care how much damage to cause we don't care how many people you kill because they mean nothing to us either and and and and amass is like that has been what is like that uh... the hoodies are like that they don't care fire all the missiles you want you know i'm over a counter right now i'm watching this on tv i don't care you're gonna kill me but how do you tell you do that and help the other element of this and you just talked about what might happen in to the into it for the rid of the year twenty twenty four about the possibility of exile etcetera etcetera uh... or hostage exchanges uh... i go back to nineteen seventy nine i guess it was uh... and there's around again uh... where do you do with the boston edges that were being held there uh... they wait until jimmy carter is out of office and it was basically slapping the face to the carter ministration the very day that reagan was sworn in the hostages release and which was really a political statement as much as anything else uh... uh... in iran still call the shots it's a different high up so low but i mean it's the same mindset here i didn't get a drag this thing out until after the u.s. election to see how that turns out yes well that's the canadian keeper we should remind myself yeah i don't have a lot of that what you saw in the movie they are are going to apologize for later you know it the literally the stars came out and said well we didn't acknowledge canada's role so uh... just a quick comment on that there's a lot between canada and iran on the agenda uh... we just passed the anniversary of the downing of the ukrainian airline and the killing of so many people connected to canada i went to one or two of the memorials here uh... there's a czar of cosmia that let me package this and then go to that question uh... when i see all these protests around the world what i'm looking for is this and i'm not seeing it i'm looking for the signs that say we actually do care about the people of gaza but we also care about the people of lebanon and iran so i'm waiting for the slogans on signs and marchers to say and and and that's by people who say they love the people of the region but i think they love the cause hamas out of gaza hezbollah out of lebanon the ayatollahs out of iran because right now the the people of that region are under the control basically of terrorist organizations and until you deal with that and come to bring that into focus so the question of the u.s. and iran yes there's some unsettled scores there uh... iran plays that situation very very well they played their role very very well the ayatollahs after all did enter into a nuclear agreement no absolutely they were cheating on it and they also have built-in limitations we could go into that iran is within as they say in the region a few turns of this group uh... having violated all their agreements and become a nuclear weapon state and that's that's just uh... that's just a as i say a transformative situation in that volatile region on that point uh... i know we're kind of short of time here but i wanted to to let this out to you too because i think we've touched on this uh... and that's the role of iran and the acknowledgement of the role of iran uh... i mean if i can draw a wizard of oz metaphor into this iran is the guy behind the curtain uh... they're pulling the levers about all this stuff uh... yet nobody seems to want to admit that it's an anthony blinken can make as many trips as he wants to over to there but it's not going to get solved until iran is actually at the table and says okay all right we admit it we're pulling all this thing together let's you and i talk about what's going to happen to this i mean can these other can can hasbro can anybody else even do the negotiating when but really they're getting their orders from iran right and i fully support that except uh... i would think maybe the evil witch of the north rather than that lovable guy behind the screen but uh... that all goes to intent doesn't it it does everything that mister blinken has done in his multiple trips there sends a single message to iran one possible way of viewing this entire situation and answering your question and that is we don't want to go to war with iran we don't want to directly confront iran we will put our military forces two aircraft carrier strike groups that has nothing to do with Gaza that's settling down telling iran and hezbollah don't don't rock the boat what do you think assuming that is the situation what did the ayatollahs do when they hear the message we really don't want to mess with you uh... well uh... they'll just i think it emboldens them doesn't it it does it emboldens them and empowers them uh... that's not the intention of the u.s. the u.s. does not want to be drawn into another major war in the middle east but sooner or later the iranian question has to be faced and as we uh... watch all this unfold and speculate about what may or may not happen uh... meanwhile as they say uh... back in moscow putin is just rubbing his hands and said that i didn't pay any attention to what i'm doing over there in ukraine right now and they don't give a shit about what i'm going to be doing uh... my my domino theory that's going to be going on there because their their attention is someplace else right now and that's that's not a good circumstance no mr putin has all along not had a single position i'm going to use the nuclear threat to shape the behavior of those who might otherwise come to ukraine's defense and it has shaped the behavior right from day one president biden has said we will not have nato go to direct confrontation with mr putin and mr putin said okay and that's the that's uh... but as you know over time more and more and more actual equipment has been provided to ukraine and ukraine's slogan is we are fighting this war for you and uh... just uh... i don't know how much time we have but uh... you might notice that the uk has played a very interesting role here the uk has been very busy with the u.s. in terms of the red sea we just talked about that uh... the leader of uh... of the united kingdom mr sunak prime minister sunak has just gone to ukraine and signed an agreement well that agreement is important because it hasn't been i think emphasized enough there is a formal arrangement between nato and ukraine they have a council nato does not have ukraine as a member they cannot admit ukraine as a member and incidentally ukraine had no membership possibilities in twenty fourteen when russia invaded for the first time and thought they would take over the country uh... that's what they came back to do that agreement includes a number of states saying that nato cannot make agreements but nato and ukraine agree individual states can make bilateral agreements prime minister sunak just went and did that so it's not just an agreement it's an agreement under an umbrella that other states could follow yes indeed mr putin must be delighted about two things one is in the middle east not only the tension but also equipment has been diverted and uh... second of all the clock is ticking on the american election and the possibility that donald trump will become president once again is uh... looking pretty good for him and he's in position to help make that happen as he helps dismember the eu solidarity the nato solidarity who knows what they'll do this time in terms of the u.s. election and if mr trump comes to power he has every reason to believe that he will have his way in ukraine china behind him and with them uh... will change the world order from democracies to autocracies the takeaway here is you can't look at these things in isolation that there's a uh... confluence of events here that are happening and and world leaders are pulling the strings here uh... so important to have these discussions elliot so important to have you on with your perspective on this thank you so much for this as always well i was enjoying our conversations again despite the subject matter exactly so thanks so much but i would never from uh... carlton university elliot thank you so much and that's it for this edition of the bill kelly podcast things are happening people pay attention until next time we'll see you later take care this podcast was brought to you by rebecca wasn't her team it wasn't long now if you are a loved one of the seriously injured or if you want to make sure that your family's taking care of for the future with the will of powers of attorney call rebecca was nine oh five five two two eleven or two for a free consultation