morning subspaces 6.22

The speaker discussed various topics during the Monday Morning Subscription Spaces session on June 22, 2026. They mentioned receiving a giga router from Fios and being outdoors. They talked about commodity volatility, particularly in gold, oil, and silver, and criticized a Bloomberg analyst for misinformation. The speaker also touched on quantum economics, market trends, bond yields, semiconductor stocks, housing trends, and the passing of Alan Greenspan. They interacted with participants and shared insights on economic trends and personal views on various financial matters. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday Morning Subscription Spaces, June 22, 2026, live from the backyard. I got a giga router from Fios, and I'm right outside the Juliet Balcony, and we are sniffing the ocean air under a canopy of maple trees, and I got plenty of power on the laptop, but I'm running a little low on the phone, and I can't find my boosts. They're everywhere. Naturally, I can't find them. Okay, so where's the dollar? Holler, holler, dollar, dollar, 99? Nope. 100? Nope. 101? Yes, indeedy-do. Let's see if there's been a change. Oh, we dropped slightly below it. Okay. McGlown from Bloomberg's talking about rising commodity volatility, and I had to post back, like, what is your problem? Or whatever language I used. Gold and, I mean, oil and silver volatility is down by half. Imagine reading his article, his posts, and relying on it. Oil volatility 51, 54. I'm going to post these to him. Okay. And then silver volatility, silver volatility is down. Okay. Let's send those over to him. Yeah, let's send those over to him. Replies. Oopsie. You know what? These people, they just say stuff that's just not true. commodity. It's not a good idea to be a squirrel running in front of us if you want to keep your tail attached. More than 50%. Please be more accurate. Okay. So, yeah, we have melting volatility. And he says it's surging. These people are reckless, they're dangerous. You had Robin Brooks talk about war, say, hawkish, looking for higher long-term yields. Have you noticed what yields are doing? Yes. They're up today. Massively. Okay. I did a large dump of duration. Today's the first down day in duration prices. And, you know, I updated the chart, and it shows 14 of the 15 quantum curves. We lost the 2.5 into a death cross daily. And then we have 7 weekly and 7 monthly failures of support both the 50 and the 200, period. The rotation of the curve is so pronounced. But, you know, with a war and oil, I don't have to take a huge position and ride it. I'm allowed to, you know, we're in the middle of a war. So, that's all I'm saying. You're seeing a deflating commodity volatility, notwithstanding Bloomberg's commodity guy articulating fiction. He's saying commodity volatility is surging, or whatever word he used. And yet, I just showed you the chart. The biggest commodity is down, volatility is down by half. Iran's being told they're winning by awful and awful, Mario and awful, and all these other people. Volatility will drag down price. Commodity volatility means you could take a larger position. That's why I have modest positions in Nvidia because it's the largest company. You know, I'm harvesting Theta. I get some damn exposure. And then SMA, GWI, and I started putting on small DRAM because it's a joke. It's a bad joke. Because Bitcoin space that I went on that I got an F off afterwards, because they said you're not supposed to get people to show the proper respect to microeconomics. When we do quantum economics, that's a super status of economics, which incorporates macro and micro. It doesn't replace it. You need them both. And when you talk about capital structure, and what happens when someone doesn't pay on a preferred, they wanted evidence. They wanted to ticker, ticker, ticker those psychos for a company that had ever not paid on their preferred. I said, just look at a typical bank during a recession. So we have this propagation, this forward rotation, this flattening of the yield curve. It's like a railroad wheel from a steam engine. I don't know if they call it a wheel, whatever they call it. But in real time, you're seeing volatility may signal peak commodities versus T-bonds. Broad commodity prices may have peaked relative to U.S. Treasuries. My graphic shows what appears to be an unsustainable gap between surging commodity volatility and subdued T-bond metrics. May is a month before June and has no place in any forecast. Because anything may happen. That's quantum physics. In fact, in quantum physics, everything must happen. Goldman cuts their year-end gold forecast by 500 to 49. We're below 4,000. These people are insufferable. Silver, how's silver going to hold? 50 bucks. How's gold going to hold? 4,000, 3,500, 3,000. Gold at all likelihood doesn't hold 2,000. It's so crazy, these people. Okay, we've got the open. Now, let's take a look at some things. So, we rolled off of the July contract delivered last trading day or last trade on the 18th. So, we're at 74.30. Gold's down a percent. Silver's up a teensy. Devol is back under 40 at 39.70. Bitcoin's over 65. They're having celebrations. Oh, let's go over to CryptoVille. We're at 104.914 for our Hamiltonian. Bitcoin in this volatility. STFC surges to $90.70. MicroStrategy surges to $117. So, it's a full $9 above, excuse me, it's a full $13 from its intraday low. Okay, let's go over to, so, JMBS down an eighth. Currency's up a fifth. Oil's down two and a quarter. We're not going to get the volatility. So, mortgages are down an eighth. Vanguard's down 14.14. MBB's 0.19. PLT basically getting back to Friday's level. NASDAQ's up a half. S&P up a fifth. Yeah, so, the bond's up a third of a dime, 0.33. And we've got one base points of flattening. But we flattened so much, they could try to make a run for these bonds on the downside. I expect more flattening over time, much lower yields, but they're pricing in the dot plots, the insane dot plots. And then what happens to rates? They're putting up rates. Doesn't make a lot of sense, but they get to do what they want. Let's see, let's move over here. Megalo beta. So, DRAM's up five. Korea's flat. SMH is up one. NVIDIA's up 1% also. IGV's up a third. XLP's down 70. Utility's down an eighth. Healthcare up a quarter. XHP, the pharma healthcare, is up two. Let's see, TJ Maxx, 176. Ross Stores up 332. Looks like new closing high monthly. Burlington 183, getting closer. Moderna, up, down, up, down. June's rolled off. They don't exist anymore. Okay, what else is going on? You've got a little correction in treasury prices. Oil's down. Okay. Broadcom's down, too. SMH, three quarters. I mean, this whole semiconductor thing is such insanity. You've got the dollar back over 101. Oopsie. We were 101.127 on Friday, Thursday night overnight. DRAM is now up, after some upgrades, only 3.8. Anyway, so you know my view. What is it? Someone had 18.8 up from 6. The semi-deformation of the S&P 500, and then you have NVIDIA divided by SMH, basically at 30-month lows. Okay. Oh, let me just check XLU. Yeah, announcement from Chevron or Microsoft, and they're going to be using Vernova. Okay. CDS back over 100. UnitedHealthcare, 405 almost. And there they are high, filling some of those gaps. Let's get those yields over here. Goodbye, Starmer. Goodbye, Starmer. Yeah, so we have 17 basis points. You know what? I think we're going to pull that. We're going to lower that. We're going to reduce that to five. Yeah, I think that's because we're going to start moving in. We're going to start moving in five blocks. Okay. Let's check some mortgage rates. Not much. Not much movement there. Okay. Okay. Anybody have any comments, questions, thoughts? Okay. Let's see. What have we got over here? Yeah, we have continuing energy entering into the semi-space. It's just getting more deformed from reality. Positioning and sizing is what you do when you're trying to gain some exposure. Smaller and smaller and smaller, like a Zeno's paradox. Okay. Let's take a look at housing. Looks flattish. I mean, if you look at, you know, we're not far away from one-on-one. You know what? Let's take a look at the quarterly, okay? Because as we've described, the 50-year trend and the 12-and-a-half-year trend, let's look at the quarterly, the three-month. Yeah, so the three-month is 98.943, and the 12-and-a-half-week is 97,289. That's obviously the bigger uptrend than the 200 quarter, but it's 1.6, excuse me, 1.653. And we're going to get there. We're going to get there. The spike that we had that helped lift the 200 quarter was just the policy hikes, but we're making our way back up. And there's no way, in my view, we don't go back to the highs and take out the, I mean, I think we take out the dot-com highs. And where's your inflation now? When you have semis go up and you can't steepen the curve, there's something going on there. I think I'm going to get over here. Okay. We're getting some help on these rates. They're finding the floor. The flat there is helping. Oil's helping. We lost Alan Greenspan. He died of Parkinson's this morning. Let's see. What is the, what is, oh, we got somebody. Arizona. What's going on? What's going on? We're unable to hear you. Jeff, we're unable to hear you. Maybe you have to step down and then come back up. Okay. I sent you an invitation. Maybe you have to step down to come back up. Maybe you got to reboot your phone. There he is. What's going on? What's that, the treasure? I hadn't heard about Alan. I thought he, for some reason, I thought he died a long time ago. Well, he didn't. Obviously. So, how old was he? A hundo. What happened is he married this Jewish woman. They got divorced after like a year. And then they grew up on the, he was born in Washington Heights, right not far from Yeshiva University. And he wouldn't marry Andrea. I don't think he married her until her, his mother died because she was not a member of the tribe. Anyway, his, his legacy is quite marred. He starts off 69 days in, which is 50 trading days, minus, minus 40%. And he finishes minus 83.6. I'm going to ask that. That's a lot of noise. Are you hauling out the trash? Yeah, I'm sorry. You should be. Yeah. Plan better, plan better. Well, I was planning better, but then somebody, somebody came up and it's my dog. He's a puppy, kind of. 2.2 basis points of flattening 530. Man, these curves are flattening hard. And Robin Brooks of formerly Goldman Sachs Commodity and now Brookings Institute. Oh, Warsh wants higher long-term rates to tighten the liquidity. He doesn't know how markets work. It's so scary. It's so scary. Well, Greenspan also was successful closing a bunch of banks too, smaller banks, savings and loans. Well, they closed on their own, right? Well, you know what I mean. They had a little help from friends. If you would have had harder money, they would have closed earlier. Yeah, that's true. That's true. But they tightened when they were probably the weakest. So, I don't know. I know in China they've been successful. They're having a lot of local banks. China and bank in the world successful, I've never found in a single sentence. I got derailed with Greenspan. I have a basic question because we've all been watching the dollar grow up. And since I started listening to you in 24, that's been one of your common themes. And I said, how do you know this? Just because everyone in the world says no? First of all, would you agree that the dollar debasement trade that BRICS found themselves doing this at the exact worst time? Brazil, Russia, India, China, do you think India is happy that they have no dollars? It's crazy. So, E equals what? Energy equals what? Mass times a constant squared or a constant. Which in this case is 299,799,792,548 kilometers per second or 186,000 miles per second. So, energy and mass have an equivalence. The mass just gets exploded higher by a constant to equal the energy output. You know, our sun is not that productive. Solar is not, you know. But information equals market cap, just like energy equals mass. And if you add up all of the assets and all of the volatility, the Hamiltonian, all of the market value for all of stocks, commodities, and then you do all of the volatility, and that gets added up. It's a giant frozen liquid nitrogen bowling ball sitting on a trampoline, known as the dollar. What happens when the liquid nitrogen starts evaporating? It becomes a smaller mass and it's less deforming of gravity. And the dollar goes up. You've seen the chart, right? The smaller total value of all the assets, the stronger the dollar, because this is people shorting dollars, shorting treasuries to push their winning trades. Do you think they're doing that successfully in gold, Peter Schiff? Peter Schiff had the 1980 bull market that failed by 70% in gold, which was caused by Nixon taking us off the gold standard on 8-15-71. And then you had a 4X money supply that retested silver at 50, and gold went through. And then you had the COVID spending, and that helped lift. But then you had Trump seize, on December 10, 2025, 12-10-25, we seized the skipper. And all the people that were short commodities and taking oil below 50, I mean below 55, 54.98, or 54.89, I forget, on its way into the 30s. And gold was melting. What did they do? They reversed course, because you had policy that was just going to debase. But aren't you seeing, is there a reason why we talk about so much of the time Devol and Bitcoin, to demonstrate the gravitational attraction of the Hamiltonian, as evidence that these people get all the hopium they want. And they're like, oh wow, we're back above 59, or whatever, we're back above, what was it, oh no, 74 was the low. We're back above the down 50%. They're all excited, except they're using up their energy, they're using up their fuel, they're using up their force. So while they're playing three-card Monte with the debt, with the preferreds, and with the common, you've got the ETFs with outflows. And when the institutions reverse course, because what's happening is a lot of institutions are selling volatility to bring in something for this deteriorating asset. And at a certain point, they're going to sell the volatility more, or to get more negative gamma. Remember, you sell vol, it's a delta of 50, it's negative gamma of 50. As the volatility, as the yield decays, the theta, you'll want to get more alpha out of more negative gamma. So you either sell it, you sell the volatility, and then increase your vol selling. But in all cases, it looks like it goes lower. And it's not about Bitcoin and Bitcoin volatility, it's about all price and all volatility. There's a little confusion in treasuries because of this price and yield. Yeah. Now, it's a remarkable concept that obviously I've never been exposed to. Well, you call it a concept, I call it a model. A model, yeah. It's a standard model for how markets operate. It's less of an opinion, and it's observable. And what's crazy to me is people think they get a novel concept, and they get a vague notion of it, and they say, that's all I've got to learn. It takes years to learn the basics of this. How about the higher level stuff, which lets you, I mean, I told you where I think vol would go. You guys are watching it go down. But you have no idea where the volatility was going to go. No. I'm the Gretzky of volatility. Yeah. Not of price. Oh, no. I mean, it's remarkable concepts to me. I mean, and the fact that I listen to you, and I can see, well, I can just, I'm starting to see it better. The lower the volatility, the tighter the guardrails. Look at this VXTLT. You had Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and yields are up a massive three basis points on the bond. Yeah. Okay. And then how about oil? Oil volatility is 50. Silver volatility is 45, or whatever it is. They're down a ton. And the lower they go, you know, the more people, like for me, I did a pre-Delta hedge. We haven't even had a, today is the first down day in yields. But we came off of an elevated price. And I'm like, there's a lot of noise. I had a great run lately with the rally. I was taking it down. No pause. And wait for more of this vega extrusion. I want to juice the volatility. Mortgages have a lot of juice in them. I don't want to own them. I want the duration now. Because they're sloppy. I don't need them. I feel that, you know, these flattening curves are an acceleration of duration mathematically. It's the system saying, I need more duration. I'm dumping my low duration and I'm buying my bigger duration. I don't have the balance sheet for that. Isn't that the math? Yes. There's a big one, Edward. So, you know, I took a look. You've got $8 left and $9 left in curves. Seven weekly curves above the 200-week moving average. Already below the 50. One or the other. A little flattening. At a certain point, isn't that a pain trait? Isn't everybody in the system steep except for Polarity Radio? Yes. And the shifts. You know, and the, you know, the barbiturate overdose people. The economy is dying. Okay. I don't understand that. People don't understand that. Look at the balance sheet on a macro and a quantum level. The homeowners loan, the option that the policy makers have stopped from activating. It's required by law in America that you buy a call on your mortgage. It's required. You've got to buy a call. You've got to buy a put. Greenspan famously said on his 100th anniversary of his birth and his death that the greatest thing in America is the fact that you buy the 30-year prepayable mortgage. But what he could have said is the fact that he makes you buy volatility, right? The government makes you buy volatility along with your house. It's the volatility that made you the money. Right? It's a mandate. They don't make it elsewhere. If you want a house, buy some Vega. But we're pricing in the crazy dot plots and the curves keep on melting. It's just unbelievable. Have you ever seen anything like this? There's like no correction in this move. We had a war. It's gone. The September 2nd flattening, 1030. We're losing the entire term structure. There is no conversation about it anywhere. Yeah. So it's actually weaker than... Yes. Or that it's got a lot more to go because nobody's on board yet. Yeah, but it wouldn't be flattening if that was the case, right? What? It would not be flattening. No, we're flattening because the system's unwinding. Yeah, that's my point. Yeah, I agree with you. But you don't have any liquidity coming from investors. Nobody's saying, hey, let me fund, let me buy TLT on margin. That's what a flattener is. Basically, you're buying a bond and you're leveraging it up. That's what it is. You're not doing a day value, but you're doing a two-year value. And that's not advice to buy bonds on margin. There's still liquidity episodes. I myself took down a big block today. I'm out of mortgages. The ETFs are not liquid enough for size. So I couldn't just dump a huge chunk of mortgage paper and mortgage ETFs. So that moved all into duration. And now we should have a pause. It's my first down day. If we continue, I'll build up slowly and I'll make less waiting for some big pullback. Because there's always a big pullback at some point. And if I'm right, and we flatten more, and then that causes dollar strength, in the opposition of every market participant's view, there is no one who thinks a flatter curve with lower long rates is dollar supportive, except for Polarity Radio. Yeah, if you would have asked me two years ago, I would have been wrong on that one. I mean, backwards. I mean, if you look at the chart, you have to annotate. We're at 110. That's the rate hike at a crazy rate. They should have done less QE, so they'd have to hike less. And they should have hiked more faster. Right? Broken some stuff. No, can't do that. Can't do that. But we're getting closer. I mean, we were 101.127. These are real numbers. You go to some of these numbers, and people start losing money. It's all about eating through other people's money. Why do we add up all the assets in the world? Why do we do the Einstein equations for capitalism? Hamiltonian. Why do we? Because if everyone's making money, and they think it's because they're geniuses, not because of the government printing, they're going to keep on jumping on it like these geniuses are, because Bitcoin is saying, I'm riding Sandisk for another double or quadruple. And now they're going down cap. So, when people have made money by luck, by policy error, you're not going to shake them out with rational thought. You're going to take the money back. Now, I closed out my short volatility semi when the missiles were traded between Israel and Iran recently. Because that's just more energy in the system. I just saw the fifth element again the other day. Just a couple of seeds. You know, when the generals like, when the president says, have you destroyed it? And he says, I am now. And then his head starts bleeding. It just absorbs all of the energy. Seventh, I'm rebuilding because we've got such a decay in oil volatility. Nobody wants to talk about this. We spent all this time on devolves, so you could have a deeper fundamental knowledge. And now you can see what's going on. They closed the Strait of Hormuz and oil's down. How about Robin Brooks saying, oil's going to stall and stay in the 80s and 90s. No, it's not. It's on its way back to below December 10th levels. Indonesia raised rates three times in four weeks. That is not good for oil demand. And that is not good for China. Yeah. Yeah. No, it should be. Yeah, no. It makes sense. Once you say it, and we look at it, it makes sense. When you open the two liter, it's better to pour it into a one and a quarter liter and have no area for the carbonation to escape. Yeah. These curves are barometers. And when you think about an umbrella, you think about a Hoberman sphere. You can't get a Hoberman sphere for fake bars to show people the expansion and contraction of volatility. Because that's what it is. Straight lines in a field. And we're getting flatter. And they want to buy the banks on the fake earnings. Congratulations to you. What happens when you don't have a falling two year to have your steepener melt? What happens when the two year just drags up the dollar? What happens when the curve just keeps on flattening and putting upper pressure on the two? And the guy says, no, no, no, no. We're not hiking. We're just going to let the two year differential widen and suck all the volatility out of the bond and just flatten. Just flatten. I mean, at what point do you think people are going to notice when the 210 is at zero? I mean, have I... Were you listening around the time with a lunatic deer point sent out a picture by vitamin pills? Because... I remember you talking about that. I don't know if I ever said that. Well, good. I was explaining to the guy how he's so locally right. But his obstinance. I said, I know mortgages. And I'm sure I know some things less well than you. But the super vast majority, I know infinitely more than you. You know, from a technical standpoint. And like, I said, the curve must flatten. And he said, I'll wait. So it's at 74, now it's at 26. How well is he doing? He literally is fighting it the whole way. They're never going to stop. It's so crazy. There's no amount of flattening that they don't say, just you wait. Just you wait. And then at a certain point, we're going to get enough flatness. I just pulled an order. I was going to dump more bonds today. I'm like, this thing stopped in its tracks. Yeah. No, I'm always more interested in the why than the actual call. And I think that, you know, and I used to be mostly focused on technical, well, fundamental than technical. And, you know, it's, you know, it's gotten me, it's gotten me, I've made mistakes because I've relied too much on the technical. Well, but you just have to change your technical from two dimensions to three, four, five? To seven, eight dimensions. Listen, but wouldn't you rather get out, wouldn't you rather be the one eyed jack in the land of the blind? Yeah, yeah. What's the crime? The only time, the only crime, the only downside is time differential between the reality. I mean, and... You can't make money in TA because of the speed of capital. That's the problem. Yeah. And that's a lesson to learn. There is no, there are no market makers anymore. They're your enemies. They were there to stay. Someone famously called Steve Mnuchin's dad on October 20th and said, bye, we'll cover you later. It wasn't inside information. They wanted to throw some capital into the, into the houses so that they can provide two-sided liquidity. In two days, 50% of the client, the client was gone. This was out a ton of money. Because he, he pushed it through portfolio insurance tolerance levels. But that's Greenspan for you. The Greenspan story's all day long, right? Yeah. But the juicer, the juicer, the lever on the juicer, isn't that what's going on? Yeah. We're going to... At least that's, yeah, no, that makes, that's what I believe is going on. It just seems like it's slow. Well, because you have all this belief in opium and semi-contact. That means there's going to be 15% of the stock market. Everybody's going to have their own closet data center. Micron branded potato chips. I'm waiting for that. Just, they're going to invest in, in, what's that potato, what's that potato farm that makes all the... Yeah, I know. No, Micron is from there. And the potato king is like, is, is one of the big owners of Micron. Oh, I didn't, oh, I hadn't, oh, I hadn't heard that. So... Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I agree. And particularly, you know, with the action from, what, a week ago or so, with the incredible flattening, if you look at the... No, no. It pauses. And then it starts flattening again. So... The first, we were this morning 26 basis points from a new high yield. Okay. I'm not going to be crazy when we have 260 in front of us. So I took it down. I took it down. I took it downtown. And I just, you know, it's trading well, so I pulled an afternoon, you know, because I like morning liquidity and I like afternoon. Market unclosed and, and, and the open. And I can add back every day. Five days I can rebuild my position. So I pay some money. It's called insurance, right? You know, and when you get the confluence of oil volatility and falling oil volatility, falling oil, falling flattening curve, we're just burning off some of their, their dot plot. And I have to see if most of this is just the new dot plot or if it's also the flatness. Because the flattener is the pain trade. Well, and... Would you agree that the flattener is the pain trade of the street? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But, you know, you touched on dot plot and, and this weekend I was wondering or pondering, you know... 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