12.24.25

The transcription discusses the importance of making informed investment decisions and the value of seeking professional advice. It highlights the risks of not understanding the market and urges people to consider subscribing for valuable insights. The speaker emphasizes the significance of managing risks and volatility in investments, using metaphors like toothpaste in a tube to explain concepts. They also touch on economic indicators like GDP and trade deficits. Additionally, the discussion includes references to Bitcoin, market volatility, and the impact of policy decisions on financial systems. The speaker warns against emotional decision-making and stresses the need for a rational approach to investing. Good morning and welcome to Polarity Radio subscriber status, not rebroadcast anywhere except here. We're an informationally-faced group. I'm sick. Don't make a transaction without a professional advisor, and I'm not your professional advisor. I will just start off by, last night, it was a strange situation. We had someone on the open spaces, and, you know, they tell us how much money he has and how much real estate he buys, and, you know, he's trading in stocks, and I'm explaining to him how it makes sense to do a one-month subscription, because he doesn't even know what he doesn't know, and he doesn't know, um, wow, someone just got killed in East Harlem. So that it's worthwhile, um, doing a subscription, and he's explaining how, well, he'll just listen to the open spaces, and when I stop him, I'm going to subscribe. Now, obviously, that's a ridiculous statement. Uh, he's not going to, if he can't understand the value, uh, when he's involved in hearing some of the stuff, there's no way he'll see the value later, but the horrible thing is, you know, the individual ends up saying, ah, I'm not, you know, I think he has some challenges because he said that he has PTSD from investing, and I said, I'm trying to give you more comfort that you're, you're getting insights into things you wouldn't otherwise have gotten into, risks that you don't see, and so his answer was to be in cash, okay? In cash is probably 99% of the time the worst possible return of investment opportunities. It's probably only outperforming 1% of the time, so that means you're spending more than the subscription fee in doing the wrong thing. Now, for some people, you're here to learn. For some people, you're here to get, um, uh, roadmaps, risk, uh, risk techniques, information. I spent, for the most part, a lot of the last 26 years collaborating with someone, and I was the navigator, and he was the block trader, um, but I feel for people who have an ego that stops them from subscribing, because they shouldn't even have to pay. I'd rather lose money a lot than lose a lot less, um, by, um, by subscribing. I said, just cancel on day one and decide if you want to renew at the end of the month, and I feel so badly because there's so much brainwashing and such useless information, counter-helpful information out there, that people would rather make one bad trade they might be able to avoid, which would pay years of subscription, if not, in some cases, a lifetime of subscription, and so that's why I'm trying to encourage everyone to gift it to someone. There's got to be someone who's losing a lot more money, missing out on a lot more low-risk trades, and it'll become much more obvious as Bitcoin melts down. I mean, the hostility to even being allowed to say that is bizarre. It's part of the, what I call, the whale-eggs-and-steam of the bots, trying to just encourage everyone to stay in, but it's like bag-holding. You're getting the information that's letting you exclude excludable risk. As I say, you cannot diversify away all risk. You can diversify away potentially diversifiable risk, and if you have a high skill set, you can diversify as much diversifiable risk, but there's organic uncertainty in the system. If you don't take the VIX down to zero, it doesn't become a money market fund with a higher return. Ironically, Bitcoin has become a money market return with high beta volatility. I mean, when it gets to 69,000 adjusted for inflation from 11, 10, 21, that's like a few percent below here. You know, the price index is up 20% over that time frame. We're close. People will have wasted four years in an asset that has dramatically underperformed all these other assets. It's really extraordinary. So anyway, what do we have going on today? So that's one of the reasons I push people, because I know the value of the subscription is off by two decimals, but any fund which should be willing to pay $10,000 a month or more, and you're getting a fractional access for now, but you're leaving people behind in my opinion. Anyway, what do we get overnight? We got Bitcoin volatility below 43. Bitcoin vol right now is 4,275. I'm not going to put up on the chart, I'm so sick. Bitcoin is 87,220. The volatility is like energy. Energy is being lost. It reminds me of an Isaac Asimov story. He was one of the great science fiction writers of all time, and there was a planet that was losing energy. It was losing mass. So they wanted to make sure that people didn't remove any mass when they left. And so what they did is they weighed your ship when you came in or something like that, when you landed, and they weighed it on the way out to make sure you didn't remove any of the mass when you left. And there was a guy who forgot that, I don't know, he ate a meal, he bought something, and he didn't leave enough mass behind, and his punishment was they lopped off his arm, because he took the mass away from him. Now, gamma, which is the price, is your energy expression out of contained fields. Your volatility is like a tube of toothpaste, and the toothpaste in the tube is your gamma, is your price. And when you load up that toothbrush, like King Charles has a special toothbrush, like an inch long, and he makes sure his ballots put some one-inch strip of toothpaste when he brings them to the nighttime dental tray. I mean, that's called being lazy. Anyway, you keep on doing that, and the area inside the toothpaste is compressed. The entropy, the energy, the mass is decaying. You need either a natural state of uncertainty, which is the minimum volatility of an asset. The VIX got below 14 yesterday. It was 12 sometime last year. It was 10 at some point since COVID. It might have been just under 8, I think, at one point in its lifetime. There is a minimum volatility of something other than a one-day Treasury bill. As you have elevated volatilities by policy, you lose volatility through time. And I consider the outperformance of NASDAQ over the S&P a volatility. I consider the yields on a Treasury a volatility above zero, or at some level. A credit spread, all these things are volatilities. They're price differences. They require force to maintain excess liquidity and adequate liquidity. And so we're losing the volatility. We're losing the gamma because the volatility, like a black hole, conserves all the information, all the energy that it absorbs, with the exception of Hawking's interpretation of Dirac, who went to school with Archie Leach, Gary Grant. I think it's Bristol School for Boys. And when you have an excitation into existence of a virtual particle, and one part of the particle is on the inside of the Earth's horizon, one is on the out, they'll do their cancellations, and that will cause the radiation to leak out. That will take away energy. That's why you see some lights leak radiation coming out of a black hole. It's overcoming the gravity because in any enclosed space there are virtual particles excited into existence that annihilate each other. And this is what I'm trying to highlight about policy. Policy is not the system, it's part of the system. We're in a closed system. Powell, politics, war, it's all part of the system. But you can have clusters and concentrations. Our solar system is so far away from other stuff, that's why our planets are able to stay in orbit and not have gravity rip us out. That's why you look in the night sky, you don't see only light from the infinite supply of stars, because it's our infinite supply of stars. It's clustering. Same thing in markets, we have clusters. We have 500 S&P, that's clustering. You know, the galaxy, the S&P 500. Bitcoin is nothing more than a particle, a cluster of particles. It's an energy. It's losing its energy. Let's not be emotional about anything ever. Let's be dispassionate, let's watch what it's doing. It's surrendering its volatility at an unprecedented rate for itself. Look at the chart of its volatility, it's like elevator down, escalator up. And the people think, oh yeah, no problem, great. But the volatility, this is like Pobliano diets, in my opinion, so greasy. Because I'm CLSE. Saying, oh, the volatility's coming up, so we shouldn't go down more than 80K. No more 80 Centrons, because of the low vol. He does not understand this. He's another confident, well-dressed, hockstery guy, sailor on data blockers, I call him. Where is their answer going to be when we take out the different levels? And then we're down 50% of the range, 26 to 126. Volatility is leaning lower. Volatility going, it's not like we expect to see Bitcoin fall faster than volatility. No, it catches down later. We have volatility rising, let's say, gets dragged up by Bitcoin, which goes up 400% after the pivot to an EZARX in August of 23. And then you're down, it's like stretching, it's pulling. It's pulling wider, it's dealers grabbing Delta hedge for their short volatility position to neutralize themselves. And then you've got some gravity, local buyers, hopiers, still cross-trading and buying Bitcoin as volatility's coming in, but you're just getting more and more and more overvalued relative to the amount of volatility you can justify, because you don't have the new inputs. Yesterday we had 4.34, not 4.3, 4.34 GDP. And all you can read about all of the news is why it's not real. Well, there wasn't enough income, there was a difference between GDI and GDP. Well, there was healthcare. Well, there was trade deficit. Someone literally has the nerve to complain that it's because our trade deficit shrunk. Shrunk. I couldn't think of any better reason for growth than our trade deficit shrinking, because it mechanically means you're going to have less debt. Government debt is the payment for imports. You could do all the math you want. More imports, more paper being sent overseas. Less imports, less paper being sent overseas. And since we have the opportunity to punish the people that are taking advantage of us, with the exception of China, and we still were able to get back 1.6% of our growth from China. How about when we're making rare earths all up and down Central and South America, and Russia, and Ukraine, and Australia, and Virginia. But internationally, outside of China, whatever we're buying from them, we'll be able to sell them to us. Whatever rare earths we're buying, we'll be able to trade that out, because it's our choice. We have 40 low change as our low since crypto crash, 10-10-25, which is... October 9th was the stock market peak after 23 years in one day, and October 6th was... I think October 6th was the Bitcoin peak. But Bitcoin denominated in its own volatility peaks on September 18th. And why is it so important to denominate something in its own volatility? Because as the volatility falls, it makes the current price too rich. You can't get there. Too many people are going to want to sell, because it's too many days into a volatility event. So you've got a 38.2% volatility, it accommodates a 2% daily move, three days in a row you get 6%. 57.3%. 78.4%. We're at 92.71%, we have a 5% daily move, that's 15%. People are getting involved, they're buying, they're selling, they're doing whatever they want. We're not doing that anymore. We're fighting over scraps. We're fighting over a tech stock valuation. And now we have the NASDAQ not far from an all-time high, the S&P made an all-time high, obviously in my work I'm saying it's because of the policy support. We basically went from a trillion dollars of roll-off to a half a trillion dollars of QE, whatever they want to call it. You took rates down one and three quarters, you weakened a dollar. The U.S. says, oh, we're not cutting. So one of the things I just kind of highlight is our yield is 42 basis points higher for the 10-year versus the 5-year. Okay. It's called a fight, it's an 80 kind of term. Do I think that's going to invert? Of course I do. Okay. But it's a lot of people funding the purchases of very cheap mortgages. Mortgages are cheap. You've got $85 Fannie Mae 2 1⁄2 coupons that just pay you par every once in a while. The rates go lower, they'll pay you par at a faster rate. But yesterday morning on this 4.34% GDP, they took out mortgage yields three basis points. By the close, it was gone. We're two basis points above the rate we were in mortgages on September 17, 2025. Today is the 24th, so that's 7 plus 91, 98 days. 28 to 13 is 26 days. So we're 19 days shy of the length of time it took for rates to peak of 150 mortgage, 129 treasury at the genesis phase of the rate cutting cycle when the curve was inverted and the Fed could make maximum policy support by cutting. You just got people to short treasury, they made so much money shorting the treasury, they bought Bitcoin, they bought everything. How about now? S&P knew how to hide Bitcoin down 39%. 75 basis points at times, QT, QE, blah, blah, blah. Mortgage rates are up to basis points. Do we need to have it go down? Mortgage rates are up to basis points. Do we need to have it go down three basis points to say we're below? Do we really have to wait that long to realize something is different? It's a negative divergence of an extreme nature. And we, the last time, showed how you bled it off. 91 and 26 days. That's 117 days. And the problem is when the curve is steeped, your funding costs for leverage goes down. So the immediate stimulation and the doubling down of the Gundlachs and the Rubinis and the Druckenmiller and all these people is not as if I said rates are going to go down and Jeff Stein is right, we're going into recession. No, I said no recession. As long as I said rates are going up because there's no recession, higher growth. No, I didn't say that. I said rates are independent mathematically from growth because growth destroys supply. We just saw 1.6% of GDP. So that's 30 times $48 billion reduction of the trade, net trade with China. 30 trillion times 1%, 300 billion. Excuse me. 30 trillion times 1% is 300 billion and then the sixth is a 480 billion reduction. According to the calculations that was reported, that's a lot less debt. Benson just said, you know, we're going to be down, what did he say, for like $600 billion in the deficit, 2%. We fired, we got rid of 250,000 government employees and the plan is to try to, you know, attract out people and hand the money over to the private sector. AI loves this stuff. So when you round trip, when you get a wavelength, excuse me, a phase, not the whole wavelength, that's information. And the Fed kept on pumping in new energy to keep the system elevated. The entropy high, the volatility is high. That's why we track the volatility. Now I'm tracking skew, kurtosis, and the next four and the next eight levels above that. They barely moved, they'd already been a maze. But when you're seeing volatility deflation, the system's losing energy. Why? It's being smothered by all of this virtual money, all of this monster. A cookie monster eats only cookies. An M2 monster eats anything. It doesn't care, right? You remember Back to the Future, when he comes back, the guy from Taxi, the professor, and he needs some energy. He needs some energy, so he puts a can of this, puts any mass inside, and he gets whatever energy he needs. Anything the Fed does, anything Trump does, anything Russia opens, anything they do makes the system excited and the system has neutralization of the equilibrium and the system backs away. Until you get back to an equilibrium state. What I find so reprehensible is there is a fake letter from Epstein to the predator, Nasser, who abused hundreds of the Olympic girls and the corruption of the FBI, letting him get away with it for years despite complaints. And there's a letter that was written after Epstein died, but yet they're just leading the news with something that is ridiculous. You're losing your credibility, it's crazy. It's like a spoof. It's a spoof on information. Um... It's fake energy. When Trump did the tariffs and he warned every volatility dealer, every single one, get out of the way, I'm going to do something. Of course they were never going to charge 145 tariffs. China couldn't afford it, and we get no rare earths, we have no car industry. And it was later that week that Bitcoin established we weren't going much lower. That's what prompted, it's the eigenbasis, it's the ratio of motion expected by Bitcoin versus the other risk assets. It slowed down. So, it's a cover. 42947. Two weeks later, we got a signal of absolute low probability. That was the day we had that that sad individual, we used to look at Fidelity, he trolls me, sends his trolls out after me, said, oh, no, no, we're going to break down, it's over. I said, I don't see how you can get there. And that was the start of trouble. That's April 21, feel free to listen on the podcast, episode 6 or 7 or something like that. It was reposted, I think, in May, I'm not exactly sure, but if you look at 6 or 7 on Apple and Spotify. And then we have the MOVE index. That's the kind of treasury bond index. And that was June 27, June 26, 27, 28, maybe 27, 28. Also available there. And then we talked about Bitcoin in terms of the power law. The power law means the exponent law, so the power of. But they could go negative. And you could lose, if you could add nine decimals, you could lose. So, I don't remember the exact date of that, I think it was December 11th or whatever, I'm not exactly sure. I think we have some earlier ones. But what do we have now? The S&P having no high and Bitcoin down 39. And Bitcoin volatility about to go towards lows. And Bitcoin is shedding people who are interested in expanding its volatility. And they're going over the silver pitch. But they're not going over the three-year note because they're not going over the three-year note because they're not going over the S&P pitch. Because they couldn't move it. Because they're fringing, they're small. So they're going over the silver, they're looking at a high and they're pushing it through. And the volatility of silver adjusted to the volatility of Bitcoin is up between three and four hundred percent over a very, you know, relatively speaking, brief amount of time. The problem is, gold is exhausted. Gold volatility is way down. They can move it a little, they can get an increment at the new high, they can push it for the year and they can do whatever they want. But they also got help from our cuts and Europe's non-cuts. So, again, let's go over the yields. Why are our yields here despite the growth? So why are our yields below our growth and why are European yields above their growth? The reason is, if you add up everybody's growth, the yields of, and you add up everyone's yields, it's right. But they're artificially holding up their yields. They have a two percent policy rate in Europe. It should be zero right now or negative because Switzerland's negative. They're zero officially, but for large depositors, they're negative. We're grabbing with, Trump is stealing all our growth back and I say, stealing in quotes. He's returning our growth to the US. He's destroying how the system works. We run deficits. They send us dollars. We run deficits. They send us goods to get the paper. We get rid of our deficits. There's no room for a good. There's no paper. We'll just drive the dollar up. People shorting the dollar. People buying tech stocks. It's fun. It's a party. It's ridiculous. It makes sense in the sense that while they're helping, they're helping. But the volatility is leaking. It's being annihilated. It's not being re-energized. We're not going to be able to get the reaction to a hundred basis points cut in 92 days when it wasn't needed. And now we're near an eight month low. April 21 was when the 510 was 43 basis points deep. We are 42 more than eight months later. Do you want to have a curve that has flattened over a year and ignore it when it's related to mortgages which are 13 and a half, excuse me, 13 trillion. I think it's 12 and a half in some HELOC money. Do you really want to ignore a 50 trillion dollar assets funding source like it's no biggie? We had the 5-7 two basis points steep. Five was the low yield on the curve. Going back to last year on August 5th. Before Goulds became unsaid, no cuts for you. That was after the big flash crash. Nikkei down 22.5 in three days. We are seeing deteriorating volatilities. Again, yields I consider volatilities. Bitcoin is a signal. Bitcoin is a lot of information. What do you see? The alls. How about the alls? How about the second tier? Ethereum, Solana, Ripple. You're losing equity across the area in the crypto space. All that means is crypto is leveraging up by the hodl and stack sacks by the brainwash. The introduction of the notion of buy and hold on the cicada time frame. So, there's a lot of leverage. There's a lot of people at bar against their coins. I think it was a month ago they both invited me on for three episodes. They skipped a week, invited me on for one. People don't want to... They're advertising. I understand it. They're advertising right now a Bitcoin lending product. You put your coin on Fe and they'll charge you 10% to borrow. Except how much can you borrow? And when will they sell you out? It's rough. I'm down 39% if I'm Bitcoin. And I got the S&P at a new high. Folks, that's an extension. That's a... And then as much as Bitcoin. Bitcoin volatility is 64 down to 40. With... What was it? What was it? Oopsie. 42.68. What's the low of the day? The low of the day was 42.65, 42.68. And that's the lowest weekly close going back to the week. We are completing the excitation event of the rapid exit. It was an exit event. The volatility spike wasn't an entry event. It was an exit event. We're getting lower of all and you're not getting the lift in Bitcoin. It's at a massive 87,139. How are you going to scare people? So Bitcoin has its low weekly close is 86,803. Let's put that up in the list. That's not a high number. It's 300 away. With falling volatility. Let's get those two up there. I can't ignore the thing I care most about. I'm going to put the 510 to fight. It's literally a fight. They call it the 5 over the 10. It's literally a fight. Come on show up. Okay. So I just put it up. It's up in the list right now. Okay. If you look at this what I see is escalator rolling over higher from the close just getting weaker and weaker and weaker and then a sharp event. And now it's just trying to not close the week below 86,803. It's 300 and 357 points lower. That will be the lowest weekly lows since the event. I'm excusing. Since Liberation Day. And then you've got some trend lines and some wicks. I don't even know what that means. I'm exaggerating. It's not really important to me. There's no activity. So those aren't real high value numbers but there's no activity. You like higher time frame. Okay, let's take a look at yield. Folks, this is not healthy. If you're not listening. We have the tenure at 4.159 despite Rick Santelli's cheerleading for let's get a crater 2.0. Let's get a 420. Let's get a break up. Let's get energy. Okay. You've got flattening. Flattening is loss of energy. Folks, if weakness is supposed to cause steepening then strength is not supposed to cause steepening or the system is a steepener structurally. It should cause a flattening. We had good flattening yesterday. And now we have the two year, three year at 4.7 basis points. Or 4.6. The weakest that we had recently was about 4.1. Only a half of where a half of basis points steeper 2s, 3s despite all the data that was supposed to be so scary. Ooh, scary data. Who cares about the data? The data I care about is price, time and sales. So the two year, the three year and the five year, which is 20 trillion of the 30 trillion marketable debt. And the stuff outside of five year most of that's held to the jury. So we're looking at every one of the sections or secants from trigonometry. The sections of the curve like a tire tank. As you're going over you see those slabs, those sections just rotate rotate rotate rotate around. It's a good thing I have a smoke. Rotate around the wheel until they're flat. And if you're going down you'll be reverted. Where do you think mortgage rates are going to go today if treasure rates stay lower? Pretty good guess. Stable to lower. Mortgage rates are 200 up. I expect them despite the federal up to get to 50. You've got the spending out of Europe, the UK, none of that's real. It's all because their curves are predicated on fake news. I look at the German tenure and I see a report on CNBC 2.867 and all I can see is .867 because they're cutting 200 basis points. I bet they cut more but they'll really be very hostile to go below zero. So if they're .867 we're going to do a 2.867? 1.867? Where are mortgage rates going to be? Where's the dollar going to be? The Japanese 40 year, you know I think I'm the only one in the universe that has called for let's put this up I'm the only one who did the negative power law. I didn't call it the power law, I just called it decimals until I heard that either Italian or Greek professor started about the power law. These people are just unfair and dangerous. Power law. Okay? I certainly must be I certainly must be the only one in the world who stepped in the Friday about a month ago four or five weeks ago when they touched .377. I said that's it for me. I'm 92 times it's making it onto CNBC the 40 year, like they were talking about it at 4.1 as a risk. They're talking about it at .377. I'm good at .377. I don't care if it goes to .477. Okay? That's 30% higher yield. It just went up 9,200%. I don't care if I'm not the 30 basis points. They're a recession, folks. Their measurement error is very high. Oil is going to 40. The war is ending in Russia. The war is ending in Ukraine. You have no idea what Trump's generals told the Ukrainian generals that told Zelensky. You can either be part of the end of this or you can go to jail with your number two for the fraud that you committed. We're not going to kill all these boys. We're not going to have men have a country anymore. So we're losing curve. We're losing energy. We're losing entropy. The theta, the angle of the curve is a valve, a liquidity valve. You look at these charts of Bitcoin. It's like elevator down and Michael Sandler just bought 20,000 coins this month. It's going sideways. We have 300 for a new weekly close. Will we close this week at a new weekly close going back to the Liberation Day episode? And then do you take that out and does anyone ever get to buy it? And then we have the Bitcoin volatility. I have a 42.87. It got down to 42 lower than that. And then the two-year. Excuse me, the five or 42. Let's check out 5.10. 42. It's let's do an actual calculation. Excuse me. 7.37. And then so it's 42.2. We flattened a half a basis point today. Oh, let me put up in the net. Did we put up in the net? The Japanese. Folks, you're going to look back and you're going to say that was the craziest price they ever gave you for a four-year Japanese government bond. All they could say is, oh, it's too risky. The horse has left the barn, has left the town, has left the county, has left the state. And you can see Pisa's area. And I don't care if it goes up a lot. And it's not a big position. Don't think I'm ever standing in front of something that's made a new high and I'm like, I'm going to stop it. Of course not. But it's exposure in what is a likely candidate. Like that garbage company Lulu that you know, they made jeans and now everyone's making, you know, stretchy jersey jeans. Now other people are doing it. It's a $15 billion company. It's a total candidate for activism. And guess what? They got it. I'm not interested anymore. $369. $366. and a half might be the new low for this phase. You go to $366. You get to $365. And then you have to peak on a lot of shorts. Then you get that trend line from $330, $335. Then we'll be $345. Folks, Japan is a demographic disaster. And if they didn't pop out fake news and media theory about our inflation, then our dollar would be up, the yen would be up, and their inflation would be gone. And who imports 100% of their crude oil? I think Japan at 100%. I don't know if they have anything. Let's just double check. What percent of Japanese oil oil is imported? It says 97% is meant by imports. They have an oil well? Where do they have an oil well? Anyway, I'll look at that later. I'm not going to waste the time on that now. So, if you take Bitcoin down 50%, remember it rose 10 million times. Nine decimals. It rose 1 billion percent. Folks, someone said I'm a macro. No, I'm not a macro. I'm a micro, I'm a macro, and I'm a quantum. They're all involved with each other. I look at companies' earnings in the context not of what CNBC not in the context of I'm not working with my oopsie. Okay, there it is. If you have a view that the curve must get inverted, that there's no map that supports a steep curve, it's just positioning by all the people who don't understand. You can know that Citigroup is going to have an enormous problem and their stock will go down by 75% or more. But it can't do it now because there's earnings reports that force people to buy it and they're not allowed to report that, by the way, we're insolvent at the curving rates. They don't do that. But at the same time, I can't ignore the price action of higher orders. I can't ignore deteriorating volatility. The system is losing energy. We're losing M2 growth. Tim Cook bought 50,000 shares of Nike. I love that. What are they going to try to co-brand? Wearables, who knows. So a lot of people say, oh, you're a contrarian. I am not a contrarian. Prices rise, prices fall. When you decelerate a decline, when you decelerate a rise, you watch for the warping of the trend. Remember, when something's rising, it requires more energy because it's bigger. So the greater probability of something that goes up that slows down is going to change, particularly in an overall context of declining volatility because of just insane valuation. So you look at the Bitcoin chart like at $2.5 trillion, what does it do? $4 trillion, what does it do, crypto? And then as people race out, you spike vol, now vol's back. How are you going to really do a lot of damage on that? So, I mean, when you see Bitcoin digital gold, well, I don't know how long gold's going to be behind it. Oil is $58.57. Oil is $58.57. West Texas, WTI, we're chasing down the third Venezuelan boat. Europe is giving us their growth. The average growth of the world isn't our level, it's lower. So they're holding our rates down because they have no growth. Okay. Anyway, what's going on? Equities look squishy. $10.30, but a lower high from the $70 going back to where is that? The beginning of September in front of the rate cut. They just steepened the $10.30. Let's see, $5.30. We're down at $1.08. We were as low as $89.00 I think. $89.79 after the last cut, so we steepened 18 basis points. Net, we were 23 at one point. Now we've started to re-flatten to a lower high. Let's use $10.00. $63.00. False breakout. So $67.50. What's the peak over here? $67.50 on $12.15. So we're down $4.50 up from $51.00. That's $18.00 from all these rate cuts. Okay, and then we've got that, so let's check no movement in futures. No movement in oil. No movement in Europe. Japan slightly down. Nothing meaningful. And then let's take a quick look at the Indonesian Rupiah. You see folks, we're trying to watch everything. Even small things. But if a small thing unravels, it's going to become a more important thing to the system. Like nothing like XRP. You got Solana at $68.00 billion. XRP $113.00 billion. You know. It's $2,000 from inside Campbell. 14, 15 months ago or whatever. When it went up from like $28.00 to $111.00 in a month. You start eating through that and that's a lot of equity loss. Ethereum What's the Ethereum level? $28.00 $114.00 So $100.00 and $130.00 And then you take out local and you go back to the last peak. And you have a bimodal peak in Ethereum. Okay, let's do that picture. Let's do a few longer terms. So Bitcoin major new high. Okay, and it looks like it's failing. Ethereum, double top. XRP, they ran it. Okay. And then Solana it's getting ready to fail. So let's put these up and give some context. Bitcoin Ethereum XRP, Solana Everything is worse is worse than Bitcoin. And then BTC which is horrible. Which is horrible by itself. Okay, let's try to get that slung up here. Okay, we're getting everyone tweet. No volatility in that one. So we're seeing just equity wipe away from the crypto space. Which means mathematically you're leveraging up. This cross-containment contamination of loss of virtual equity loss. It'll force involuntary selling elsewhere. And the volatility is so low the dealers aren't going to be in any position to take on any more paper. So they'll just go pitch and that's going to mean that they're either short the underlying or they'll drop a price to reflect the higher required skew payment. Okay. Does anyone have any questions? Comments? Concerns? I mean everything is getting so lovely and organized. We've got Bitcoin volatility dragging down Bitcoin or restraining Bitcoin's rise. Someone said yesterday they had expected Bitcoin to rise more. Yes, of course people thought so. They're buying more and more and more on the way down and they have more and more to sell on the way up that lower high. That's also de-suppressive. And then, oh, let me go to the Indonesian Rupiah currency. Okay. Wrong one. I don't want to get there. Okay, so we got a teeny tiny bit of a list. The low all time is is 59. So we're 59. So it's .0000 59 .51. Okay. Let's see if we can find the the dollar version. Okay, here we are. So the highest here. Let's put this up in the next. They were pegged in 1997 at a crawling peg which got like 2400. Now it's 16,000. Okay, if you don't think that Trump's policies tariffing copper to try to get more of it in the United States is having an effect then we're on the other side of the page. Okay. We're now up in the next. Okay. The Indonesian Rupiah. So look at this. It's 2400 in 1997 which then a year and 15 days later. So it was Thailand that blew up first. And then Suharto. They had to let it go. And then Korea. And then a year plus later or so you lost RPCM. And then they cut three times at 25 each and then they hiked three times. And then they had the largest cane hunts since. Anyway. We're near the breakout. I'm not sure if you can tell the Asians. Oh, it's the Indians. Yeah, so the Indian Rupee, that's at all times well against the dollar. Let's see. There we go. Okay, so. The all time high was 16,850 and we're 16,762. So we're 38, we're 88 away from 97 28 year high. That's not pretty. Banks that have lent to them are going to lose a lot of money. They're going to do a lot of write-offs. Okay. So that's it. We have the NASDAQ, we have the S&P 1,186. 1,187 was before the late So the question. What is your guide over the holiday season? So someone says how do you explain to people that some assets are riskier than others at different times? You might show people what happens in the dot com where let's see if we can do a quick chart XLT divided by XLK XLK Okay. So let's make that a monthly Okay. So I'm going to put up a chart Okay. So that's where I want this one. Okay. Okay. So what we're going to do is we're going to post this picture I'm going to send it up into the nest if I can figure out how to do that. Post and then I'll send it up into the nest. Okay. So what this chart says, and it's the way you have to look at it. Instead of looking at the NASDAQ divided by a dollar and a staple divided by a dollar, let's just look at which is better than each other. Don't use the intermediary as the dollar. So you look at this chart and you start in 2000 and people say, well, why then? Because they didn't create the ETS that broke apart the S&P into the different sections until 1998 or so. So let's look at this chart together that Oh, we're going to look over here. Okay. So the chart that I just put up in the nest is the technology that is the staples using technology as a divider. So you can see that in the run-up after long-term capital management blew up, this was a poor investment. Okay. But if you would switch as it stopped going down in the end of the first quarter, you tripled your money. Versus what you would have done, you took a, you made what do you mean tripled your money? Oh, I'm going to get a better chart, see if I can get you a better chart. It's $53. It went up to $3.50. $0.53. So I'll multiply it by 10. Let's do that just to see. Okay. So, you know what? Let's not be fancy. Let's just do XLP divided by QQQ times 10. That allows us to get an extra decimal. Okay. Um. Okay. I hate this stupid phone that sends me all these notifications while I'm trying to take a screenshot. Okay. So, this is a little better. Um. Probably got to do it again. Okay. You know, one of the funny things people have to realize is if someone shows you a frame that you've never thought before and it clarifies things with explicit precision, the ego it says, ah, now I know everything. I now see this. This is not everything. This is one little section of one little area of one way of looking at things in one time frame. There are so many things to learn and the sad thing is people say if I would have known this, I could have made so much money. Instead of saying, how do I get this kind of information, they say, now I don't need any more information like the guy from yesterday. Okay. So, I don't know if I put it up on the desk once. Put it up again. So, this structure says staples divided by utilities. And it went from five dollars down to a dollar in that run up to tech when tech slowed down. Okay. And then it went from a buck twenty-five ah, bucks thirty-five up to eleven dollars in in like a year. That's a lot of money. So, your money your money was preserved by it's that, it's one of those um, adventure movies one of the Marvel guys where he has these two devices and he shoots and it causes these rotating discs and he uses those as as catapultation as steps where he can just catapult himself higher and higher and higher by just inventing temporary stable gravity. So, there's always something going up the fast of something else. Now, you're not going to change your whole portfolio day to day. But you can see here, it was getting exhausted. And you're not going to get the whole money. But learning how to escape is important. Now, you can see that that stopped working. And you gave back all of that over the next 23 years. But it's getting closer to the time when it looks like it's going to work again. So, that's one of the examples. Staples versus um, everything else. And I think it's very important. It was a great question that Steve asked. Let's do another one. We can do a longer one. Let's do, um, let's do NASDAQ MDX divided by SPX. We'll multiply it by 10 just to get, um, let's multiply it by 100. And then we're going to do the opposite. We're going to do SPX divided by MDX times 100. Okay. And what do we see? Oops. Um. Okay. This is one. Let's do the other. I didn't know it was that one. It was. What? It was. Okay. Let's do it again. MDX divided by SPX times 100. Oh, because I already have it up there. Where is it? There it is. Okay. Okay. Okay. I'll multiply it. Okay. Now let's move it up. Okay. Okay. Okay, this is a good shot also. This one and this one. Okay, I'll swing this up into the nest. This is a variation of that. Okay, what this is showing is if you go back, um, um, if you go back to, it was October 12th, 1990. If you took the mathematics divided by the SPX, it's like 55. It went to 330, it went up six times in just 491 weeks. And then it went all the way back down to one. So it went up, it went back down. But it went from one to 380. It only went up 3.8 times, not six times. And it took 23 years, not 10 years, less than 10 years. So, the size of the capital markets relative to the global economy is getting so overvalued that it takes much longer to do the work to move it up. And then if you go look the S&P 500, it's up to 6.66 on 3.69 March 6th of 2000. March 6th of 2009, the economy was 14 trillion. You're talking about between 40 and 45 percent of the economy. And now it's 2.25. From 0.4 to 2.25. And where's our money going to go? And you could also do something else. You could say 1.39 times GDP was the equity valuation on March 44, 2000. And that meant that 0.39 times 10.25 trillion means about 4 trillion dollars of value in excess of the equity of the U.S. economy. And what happened and what happened when when tech stocks depleted? Where'd that 4 trillion go? It created the greatest year in housing of all time. 4.2 trillion dollars in constant dollars. That was 4 trillion of excess, 40 percent. Where 125 plus the crypto so like 140 worth 40 trillion above GDP. Where's our money going? You go from 4 trillion excess to 40 trillion excess. No recession. It was 9-11 the planes stopped flying economy had a minus contraction a minor contraction Where's that money going? It's not going to evaporate and it's not GFC where the bank said no refinancing for you. Cut back on your expense to pay your overpriced mortgage. That's not what's going on right now. The low unemployment rate at 4.6 is historically low. Most of it is people that don't own homes. We have the greatest tax cut of all time coming or refund season of all time next year. So you have to take into consideration these periods of massive capital flow. And we've got algorithms that are independent of earnings. We have algorithms that are run by by computers that are watching vibration that are watching volatility that are watching the gamma volatility ratio and other higher order relationships and they're running over their enemies. They're moving 40 trillion or as we say we've got 40 trillion to travel. I want to travel with the 40 trillion. It's like worm fight in Dune. I don't want to be the guy who's the guy who goes early and gets wiped out before the money travels. There's 40 trillion to travel. It's never new. It's just faster. So I want to know where that money's going to go. Is it going to go from tech back into tech? I don't think so. These charts are telling me things. And we're getting exhausted. The study I had done Let's see. We had a great Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Someone gave us a math number. I'll put it up in the next I don't know if it's up there. There's a math number instead of a chart. Chart's visual, math number. Oh, please shorten that. Please shorten that to 12 31 00 So if you do a return chart, don't do the whole repeat the draw off. Just do it until before XLP rolled over. Because XLP had manual return over those two years of 8% versus minus 77. Just do it to that initial period where if you're late, you missed out. You don't want to be early, but if you're too late, you miss out. Anyway, don't let your friends be bag holders. Don't let them be bag holders. It's not fair. It's Bitcoin. It's down when the markets just melt it up. Let's see. Where is this? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. So, the study that I just did shows the inflation gap or the output gap. Output gap. Inflation. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So, we get some crazy, crazy, crazy stuff coming. We are going to have so much inflation you can't even imagine. If you contrast what we're doing now with what happened in the GFC aftermath, sure time frame is better. Please update. Update to 1230 1 00 End date from 324 to 324. And people say, oh, it's cherry picking. How would you know? You can see them rolling over. You can see the NASDAQ divided by the S&P. It stopped rising faster 17 months ago, and the only reason, in my view, and everyone will see it later on and say, it was obvious it's a black swan, how could we have known? Is that you're throwing the greatest policy support for the NASDAQ and it's gone nowhere with respect to the S&P in 17 plus months. This is craziness. And nobody wants to accept the fact it's like the Pauli Exclusion Principle. Two half-spin particles cannot occupy the same space. Electrons run away from each other. They're steepening the curve by policy. They're not getting any more. The 510 is flat. It's down over eight months. That's the mortgage curve. And when people want to chart later on Bitcoin versus mortgage rates, they're going to have to look at the Notice the Bitcoin is a huge multiple of the mortgage rate. The lower the mortgage rate, the further down Bitcoin's going to go. You can see it correlated. You can imagine it's causal. It doesn't matter. If it keeps on happening, it's happening. So, we're at 86,855. Are we there yet? Let's get that back up. BTC was there. They were underneath the lowest close. Oh, let's wait three months. We don't want to be three months. We want to be weekly. Okay, with this one, and then let's just contrast. Okay, we'll put this one up. Okay, this is a good one. Thank you. Wonderful. If I could impose, um, Okay. Okay. So, we got a beautiful chart. Excellent, courtesy of MMVB. Um, you should all, it's going up in the net, you should all print this out, have this on your phone, save it, show it, a 90% excess return in less than a year. Okay. Um, okay, wow, we're, we're, we're really coming down. We're able to, we're able to show now that we're the lowest close for a week in Bitcoin since April 14th week. Oops. Okay, we're going to turn that up. Um, please also offer if possible annualized return showing 100% plus more than for XLT also. Okay. Um, let's see, let's get Steve up here. Okay. Okay, um, we'll send this over. Um, photos. Okay. So I sent Steve, um, that photo, but it's for all of us. You've got to show what happened. There was a 90% outperformance, plus 40, minus 42. Okay. Um, and then, um, oh yeah, so we have um, so, that would be, um, 114% annualized return. Let's set this up for the next. Okay. Okay, 114% annualized return. Um, and then let's, let's get that, um, let's get that Bitcoin thing up there. Okay. So Bitcoin has its, its, its lowest weekly close. Now, the week isn't over, but it, it's, it's a stronger position being as a short. Um, I'd expect to perform, uh, much well to perform in my opinion, in my opinion, and I like our performance. Okay. So, yeah, these, these, these are great charts. Um, this last one shows 114% annualized return. Who, who wants to ride down Amazon? Oh, let's do an Amazon chart. Um, A-M-Z-N. A-M-Z-N. Okay. Okay. So we got, um, XL, XLU added, um, can you swap to QQQ MBX and add XLK? Okay. MBX was worse. Okay. Um, we're getting this great help from, you're not getting this anywhere else, you're getting it in real time. A guy gave you great information, and that genius from yesterday said, I'll wait until I think I may be able to understand. If someone's giving you exciting insight that you really think are helpful, shouldn't you also accept when they say, I'm not giving you the stuff that's the most useful, it's not suitable for the general public. This gentleman or woman, MNDV, is not doing this on a regular basis. They did it for you folks. What we want is XLU, XLV, XLT, XVI, and we want MBX, XLC, and XLK to show these just massive returns and decay over those timeframes. And I'll wait. Okay. Okay. So, let's see what's going on in prices now. Um... So you've got volatility down and Bitcoin down. Okay, and what that's doing is it's making Bitcoin denominated volatility not even fall. So Bitcoin isn't even getting cheap as its volatility is falling. You got a little list in, um... Okay. Um... Okay. Let's see. Bitcoin divided by Devol is just moving higher. Meaning Bitcoin is getting more expensive. Let's send this up to the next. Bitcoin is getting more expensive as it falls denominated in its, um... its own volatility. So, when something goes up in price it becomes, in one sense, a more of a candidate to decline. So, the lower the volatility goes, the more expensive Bitcoin becomes. And it looks like, you know, everyone rushed up, but now the things are getting more stable. You're not climbing the biz. And when we take out 79, I think we're going for sale as coins. Is this an attack or an ex-attack? When you get Bitcoin to go below his target price of 75, his average price, and other people start to sell that paper, and you load it up and shake out some money, it's a potential selling machine. Okay, folks. Let's check out some of these yields. A yield is a volatility above zero. Well, 14.57. Um... Um... The 5.10 is right at 42. So we're down seven basis points of flattening. Seven basis points of flattening. And then the two bonds, that's 1.8. This is, um... Um... Uh... The 5 is a 0.9 basis point. Anyway... All right. All righty. Let's take a look what's going on here. And so you've got 16 basis points of compression. Giving back some of yesterday's. The VIX is down to 13.82. Okay. Let's take a look at the VIX. And we've got the moving index. Folks, we are moving... Wow! Nice 13.80. Okay. 13.79. Okay. And then let's go to the 5 here. Okay. You've got to go back to... before the rate cuts. Before the end of QE. And then... You've got to go to November 23. Okay. Okay. Yeah. These are crazy numbers. They're delightful. Okay. We're posting up in the next the VIX. 13.79. Okay. And then you've got to go back to... Let me read those. Recently saved. Okay. So, June 30. We had a 10.62 that month. June 30, 2024. November, we were at the close 12.44 with a low of 11.81. Okay. So, the bottom line is we're melting. There's too much money. And what happens when volatility goes too low? You've got two sumo wrestlers. Okay. Excellent. Excellent. As they say in the hunt for Red October, he said, one more thing to tell you. XLV XLV XVI XVI is as Okay. Okay. We're getting such great stuff, folks. We're getting such great stuff. Yeah. The turnaround time on this is fantastic. So excited. When you get volatility too low, one person having an opinion, and another person having an opinion. One up, one down, third person sideways. But at one point, when you can't go any lower in volatility, a bull or a bear will run over the other. They'll push him. And that's when dealers are in the worst position. They're short every direction. And whatever happens, they'll push. Congratulations. They got their play back to 87. The dollar's up. The TV TV is one-sixth. One-sixteenth, excuse me. NASDAQ divided by X. So let's take a look. Okay. So right now, we don't have a candidate day for a decline in move. Because we have some elevated no volatility. But we'll see what happens by the end of the day. So we are now Let's do the weekly. And then we'll do the daily. The NASDAQ divided by the X&P. Okay. And let's do the weekly. Let's do the daily to show the poor reaction to Well, let's shrink it down so you don't lose that. Okay. October 29th and December 10th. Okay. So we have So we have the weekly. And then we're also showing the daily from the last two rate cuts. October 29th and December 10th. Both of those have resulted in the NASDAQ under-reforming the X&P. Okay. Okay. We have a hero in the crowd. Okay. Okay. Okay. So we're almost perfect. We're grateful. We just wanted to move XLV up and XLK down because XLK is the worst return. And then we'll do the organization of the behavior. It's called cherry-picking but it's also called watching everything and watching for divergence. That was quite attractive. We're having the opportunity One second. Okay. Okay. So we're having the opportunity to see this stuff in real time. And I think I got my sound back. Hopefully. Yeah. So just as it is, it's an amazing chart from MMDB. The only improvement would be to shift up XLV because the third strongest and move down to XLK. And that demonstrates that the QQQ the MVX has non-tentament which acts like like a buffer like ballast. Huh. So let's take a quick look at these. And 11 basis points of NASDAQ compression. But again, we are straight down NASDAQ expansion. It's NASDAQ compression from each of the last rate cuts. And what I'm saying is it was my base case that that gets worse. The lower we cut, the more money you destroy. Or the more money is destroyed sooner. Because additional cuts, regardless of what the probability is. Okay. Okay. Okay. Um. Yikes. Yes. The employment opportunity is tremendous. Um. Okay. I'm tripping up. Um. Um. Um. Um. Okay. This is fantastic. Okay. This is great. Um. So please everyone. I'm posting it in the next. Please everyone save this. And show it around. To the people in your life. This is a description of let's put the subscriber. Um. Post peak. Last time. Um. It's going up right in the next. You should download it. It shows you from the peak to the end of just that year. Um. You have um. 40 cent return. Um. So the S&P staples sector and the utilities sector was 31. And then the NASDAQ was down 50.35 and the XLK was down 51. If you annualize these things, you know, you're making 115 percent. No one's selling everything at a high. Nobody's buying everything at a low. Um. Let's give it a little oops. Let's give it a DiCaprio. Okay. The last thing is if you get a quick Amazon before we go. Amazon. Oh, let's do Amazon times 100. A M Z N times 100. Oops. Oh. Okay. Almost there. Moving over. Oh, shit. Okay. Let's go about 30. Okay. So Okay. So it's a five. 60. And then the low was 27. 21. And two years later. Okay. So just one example of a great company. 560 to 27. 560 560 to 27. And October was 10 December 22 months. Okay. We'll put that for the next one we're going to have. I'm going to be doing closing spaces today and then we'll do a subscriber an open space of today. And a subscriber on Friday. Okay, everyone. Thanks for joining. This is the stuff that's going to leave your friends not back holders. You can see what can happen. You can see it just the threads are being pulled out of it. We're losing liquidity in in the risk markets. You lose some volatility. It's showing you're losing leverage. You're going to cause losses in crypto. You're going to be losses in more tax. And then when you start to get rates lower that that's going to really annihilate because that's going to cause the dollar to rise. And then everyone's got a problem. Anyway, with all that said, thanks. Two hours is a lot. And we'll be doing open spaces later today. Have a nice day, everybody. Transcribed by https://otter.ai