12.16.25 Sub spaces

Good morning and welcome to Subscribers Faces on Polarity Radio. This is an information only podcast, don't make a transaction without professional advice and we're not your professional advisors. I'm very excited to be with you today, there's so much we need to go through, as they say and as Gene Wilder said, we have so much to do and so little time. I wanted to go over two things today, I want to talk about the concept of leverage, leverage is rising in this system and why that's the case and I want to go through the rate structure of forwards as an example, the 10-year, 20-year forward which is funding a 30-year treasury with a 10-year treasury and then the rate discount strips and what we're seeing in Japan in terms of their rate structure and in terms of this theta, this angle, this shape of the curve and the historic vacuuming of capital out of cyclical equity into essentially in market structure, guaranteed price. It's taken the most insanity in my lifetime to hear people talk about how they want to buy Oracle and they don't want to buy a 30-year U.S. treasury strip coupon. One is guaranteed to take your money and give you almost four times by maturity with the option of, in an event, getting the $1000 or the $275 or $250 in a few years, that's the option. It is, you know, you all know or many of you know, I go on spaces, I used to take tremendous abuse and then when they realized what I was saying was not insane, decoherent, then they would let me on and now they don't let me on anymore because they see it as true in many cases and they're protecting their listeners from being forced to hear both sides of an argument. So let's first talk about leverage and why we highlight oil so aggressively. Oil is one of the largest consumption elements in the global economy. It's three to four percent of global turnover, you know, three to four trillion. It's a huge cost and you can't really store it, there's a little storage in America, but you just can't say magically, I'm going to upload 200, 300 million barrels. The infrastructure doesn't allow that kind of weight transfer, the pipes, the plumbing, but China's supposedly building another storage facility and when you go on Twitter, and since I've been doing spaces almost a year and a half now, and I started very slowly, I've been trying to get people to understand the leverage built up in the system from COVID following the GFC, I mean, we had less than a trillion dollars of the balance sheet, what was it, 2007, 2008, 860, a little less than 860, we went up 10x, that's not real. And so you've got dollar suppression, you've got growth all over the world, you have countries spending money because the weak dollar's making them feel like their practices are not inflationary, and that was demand. Where are we now, folks? We are within a dollar of a five-year low, not a monthly closing low, not a weekly closing low, not a daily closing low. No. In the intraday low, yes, we had a big spike in oil volatility, yes, but people are getting nervous, people are buying books, dealers are doing some delta hedging. We could have a little more time. You could see Trump walking Zelensky around like a puppy dog. You have to say that you'll have an election. Russia demanded that you say you'll have an election. You have to say the parliament can vote to authorize an election during, during a, what do they call it, martial law, or whatever they call it, wartime. Because he was using that as an excuse to stay in power, and then they indict his number two on corruption, and we know that there's limitless corruption there. It's known as the most corrupt part of Europe. So what ends up happening, he says, ah, we'll have an election. Then he says, ah, we don't need a NATO guarantee, we can take a NATO life guarantee. And Russia has said, apparently, that they're okay with that. And then all of it, all we're talking about is, um, is the armistice line. Oil is a big problem, folks. Why is oil a big problem? It's a huge opportunity for us. Because we're the mindset, we were doing the deleveraging, and we had to do enough deleveraging so that we could start to see the releveraging of the low data, of the, of the mush, the mortgage utility staples in healthcare. We're at 629, we're 18 days a point higher in mortgage, it's not like a treasury, folks. A mortgage is not a treasury. We are historic, relative-wise, relative to the price structure of treasures. We're like 200 off. Yes, I know we were 300 in a sell-off, but given the recent, you know, the decade-plus cycles, we, we, we've got to go to 100, under 100, to be 50. So you could have stable treasury yields, and still get major, major deflation of the option-adjusted spread, which is that 200 basis points extra. And it's because the slope of the yield curve is destroyed, it's the, it's the valve. It's letting the OEF leak out of the, the reservoir, the cistern, the spread. And then you now have the problem. You know, it's a rising treasury rate flow, and the total value of all treasuries is rising. It's, it's, you have some limited, you know, long-run stuff, and some selling pressure. But the short-run may do high. People will look back in a year and say, what the hell was I thinking, not buying the Japanese government bond at 92 times the yield that it was? Just 90 years ago, 92 times! That yield went up more than anything but maybe Bitcoin, and maybe more than Bitcoin. It's insane! Oh, I can't touch it. You all know that I went out on Friday, U.S. time, which is, which is the, which is the Japanese close. So that Monday was the open, Monday was the high yield, 377. The yen, uh, breaking, breaking out. In yen terms, the dollar's breaking down with respect to the yen. It was an opener, it's not an all-in, no one is that crazy. You don't do it, you can have a policy of it. But to be afraid of something that rose 92 times, to say, I'll take the other side of that? Come on! And a U.S. 30-year is so much richer, excuse me, so much cheaper than a 10-year. You strip off that 10-year, and then you get the rate. Oh, we're about to get the data. Hold on. The 2-year yield is at 3.472. Okay. So, this is a major jobs report. We added 100,000 job equivalents in the added work week, plus the, well, we're down 4.4 on the 2-year. The 2-year is, wow, these are very nice numbers, folks. These are numbers that are very good for leverage building up in the treasury complex. These are numbers that are very good to drive down treasury volatility. Very good to drive down mortgage volatility. Very good for Main Street. Wow, the 5-year, 3.50. That's what happens when you do QE and you don't have crazy data. Eight-tenths on retail sales, and they're buying the 10-year. Folks, this is a sham. This is a sham. This is hate. The 2-year yield is at 3.456, 3.457. Hate. While this guy's talking about steepening, he's failing to tell you we're seeing a big decline in the base rates. Who's Kramer? He's become Kramer. Very disappointing. Wow, it's nice. People would say, oh, we got a gap up. Let's see if we can get up. People will look back and say Trump, and I didn't vote for him, but that Trump not reopen the government topped the inflation bubble. It was a gift by his enemies. 150,000 jobs out, and they're going to be coming back in over time. And people are excited. They're buying tech. These people are giving beautiful exits to people. November hourly wage is down to a 0.1. That is not supportive of inflation. October private payroll, 52. What is it? Minus 100 total. Steve Liefman has lost his mind. I don't know if this is enough. The unemployment rate, 4.6. They have every reason to scream from the top of the roof. One-tenth hourly earnings, 4.6. How are these animals not cut? They're freaks. Retail sales at zero. Nice, nice, nice. Now they put yields all the way back up. But the point is they didn't take them up double digits. They're fighting. They're fighting. They're selling treasuries to buy their precious, precious psychotic cyclical tech. Insane. Insane. These people are insane. Okay. Let's see. November. So you have non-farm private, 69. 54 for total, so minus five government. And let's see if we can get the Let's take a look at the silver contracts. Nope, no change. The bottom line is it's seven minutes in and we've got a three-year needing to curve lower. Um, where, uh, five basis points speak to three. Remember folks, we've got to watch the sections. How people could talk about inflation in a, where's oil? What does oil do? Oil is 65.90 on this. 55.90. All of these people all over Twitter. I'm telling you folks, they're trying to take your money. I don't know if they work for Qatar. I don't know. But this, this nonsense about inflation when oil is in the wick between a daily and an all-time close. We've talked about the daily low close. We're now only below the weekly low close for five years. Do you know how much they're going to push this thing down? You know how they're going to, they have a professor from Yale. Average hourly wage, they're down to a 0.14. Where do you get inflation? Where do you get pricey when you have a 0.14? These people have lost their mind. Labor participation, 62.5. We love it. Like when you have someone who's a professor from Yale and they're telling you to make the Fed's job. The Fed doesn't have a job. They're a bunch of lying lunatics that pretend like they do stuff that last and they don't. Okay, rates are going lower and the Fed will follow. And why? Why will the Fed follow? Because I'm trying to help you understand what the volatility curve is for Treasury. Let's see what the, I didn't see any moves. 4.6% unemployment. They're going to be pounding the Fed. Pounding them. You ain't seen that when we get cyclical equity rollover, how much it's going to suck the life out of, out of Treasury. The two-year, 3.48, 3.477. We popped up a two. I do think these numbers are on the weak side. It's not horrible. We need the labor market to be based on this. This data point isn't a downward trend. And I think that's reflected in a two-year of a yield dropping. But try to explain the warming. It's warming because there's something better on the horizon with the economy as we're starting to see with corporations where they post their tax bills moving lower, more money in their pockets and revenue. These are good things for the economy. The other side of the mountain is that long rates are very stubborn here. And it's no matter where you look around the globe. It ain't going to be much longer, big boy. It ain't going to be much longer. And that's a little bit disturbing here, considering we're going to be competing with corporate America. Equities are going to be competing with a 30-year at a 4.851, which is a 5% in coupon strip. 4.6. The SOM rule has been triggered. And Mary Daly is going to be out like crazy from the San Francisco 10th to 12th district. She's going to be saying, you've got to cut. You've got to cut. I'm losing all my jobs. There's intentional uncertainty. Yale law professor, Natasha Saron. What are you doing on certainty? This was by design. How are you going to stop that locomotive train? We are now 4.6 when we have employment rate. And they're going to pretend like they're not cutting in January. Just admit you're cutting in January. A bit of a boost. You people hate. You have so much hate in you. A bit of a boost. You know how much the deregulation, lower oil prices. You have hate in your hearts. What do you mean hopefully? It's written in stone. Also, I thought you were complaining about how there was too much of a giveaway. But now, you don't want to say that you're really not doing much. And these people are filled with hate. And I just think it costs money when you listen to this noise. I've been anticipating a surge for quite some time, but I'm a little bit skeptical and worried a bit that some of that is sort of wish-passing around. Oh, wish-passing. I have difficulty listening to the people. I feel like they're stealing your money. I feel that they're trying to steal your money. Let's watch prices and let's not watch these liars. We're at a 3.5% two-year rate. The 10-year is at 4.18%. The bond yield is up one tick. Okay, it's out of control. It's out of control. These people are freaks. They're freaks. They're freaks. People are so excited they're able to buy AI tech at a discount. They're so excited. How will you not find spots at 5% when the unemployment rate is up 1.1%? What was it? 1.1%, 1.2% from the low? Is it 1% or is it 1.2%? I can't remember. Will be 3.4%. I don't think it was a 3.4%. Low unemployment rate. What was it? What was the lowest? Lowest unemployment rate ever. 3.4%, yes. 3.4%. 3.4%. We're up 1.2% and the freaks of nature are not telling you. You got to get some of those bonds. Two-year note, below 3.5% and the Fed is buying them. There won't be any. There won't be enough. The three-year, 3.548%. Anyway, so let's talk about the levering up of the system. Let's do math. Let's say you've got $100 million portfolio and you started with $50 million of equity. So you have $50 million sitting in an account. You buy $100 million of stocks, bonds, crypto, whatever. What happens when your account loses 10%? Does it come out of your debt? No, that's obligated. Does it come out of your equity? Yes. So now you have four-ninths, which is 44.4% equity, not 50%. Ah, but that's not where it ends. What happens if you're funding in treasury instead of in cash? Okay, as a pair trade. Why not? A lot of people do. They short the treasury ETF so they don't have the huge margin costs. So what happens when your treasury prices go up? Then you've lost money. Your liability is higher. So what's happening is you're buying, you put $50 million in cash in. Then you short $50 million of, let's say, two, three, and five-year notes. And then treasury prices go up. Your equity goes down by 10%. Your treasury prices go up by 3%. So that means you owe $53 million. $53 million because your liability went up, and your equity, which had been 50, and now it's at 40 because your portfolio's worth 90, but your liability is 53. You're down to 37. You've lost 25% of your equity on a 10% decline and a $3 million rise. Folks, we have to watch oil. Oil isn't silver. Oil isn't Ripple. Oil is $3 trillion. And it's being consumed by people all over the world, and a lot of the oil is used in terms of diesel to make cement for big tall buildings, which you won't build at higher rates or higher inflation. So folks, you're seeing these high yields. None of this saying, oh, the yields are going up. Folks, the yield's going up in healthy stocks. It's when yields come down that everything's going to fall faster. Because you're not just earning 5 plus percent on a treasury strip coupon, and on a forward basis, you know, buying some 5, funding in some 5, funding in some 10. What happens when you start seeing a rise in treasury prices, a decline in bond volatility, which will accommodate a decline in yield? It's too failed. It could be higher. It's my view that the dynamic is for lower. If you have very low stock prices, I think, I would be a shorter of bonds in a low vol environment, but not this environment. But what happens when you go out from the one-year leading to the two-year leading to the three-year? What happens when the five-year leading and your total return gets tacked on, your capital appreciation gets tacked on? Now goes by price. Many of them don't do anything but measure vibration, price action. What happens when you stretch out and you flatten the two-three? We say, please watch the two-three. It's like a gateway drug. It's a gateway drug. You do not want 17 to 18 trillion dollars inverted. That means you buy them. The Fed's buying them. You buy them. You drive those deals down. You get more appreciation. You de-lever other people because their liabilities are rising. This is what happened on October 8, 2024. Why the Fed went out and said, we're not cutting. Jeremy Siegel is ripping the hair out of his head. You've got to cut 75. Austin Goolsby is going up. Oh, we're not cutting. They end up cutting a month later. These liars. They're liars. We've got to watch price. We listen to them, but oftentimes when they say something and we see a price say something else, who changes their mind? Them or the curve? It's them that change their mind. The curve we trust. In curve we trust. That's our new model. In curve we trust. You've got Japan with a collapsing population, millions of empty homes, a curve that's steeper than any curve in the G7. Negative growth. Oil melted. They import 100% of their oil. And if you know anything about rice or Japanese culture, Japanese heritage, it's like maple syrup to the Canadians. Or dairy. You can't sell to them. They won't take imports. And they have a terrible crop. A massive, massive rice inflation. That's not a euphemism. The price of rice that you eat went up by a crazy amount. That's going to be coming up. While oil's coming up. So folks, we've got to watch Bitcoin. We've got to watch oil. We've got to watch the Japanese 40-year. There's just a lot of information in these things. And we have to watch to see if we can get another cell program in crypto to catch down to front-running falling assets. Bitcoin is down enormously. But it doesn't feel to me like it did on April 7th of 429, which I had been looking for an opportunity. I get up, whatever, I say good enough. I didn't know what it was going to do. But it was really sluggish selling. So you could argue that we're starting to see sluggish selling because Bitcoin's up and Nasdaq's down. Well, we got news today. They're dealing with a 4.6% reported inflation rate. You can't argue with that. You can't really love cyclicals with that, can you? And I don't mean the country that Obama's father was born in. I am not a birther. I don't say he was born in, even though a book he wrote, apparently he had in his sleeve a boy from Kenya. So it could have been vain referencing his father. But he was born in Hawaii. Okay. But, you know, we have to watch this unemployment rate. Not that we're not going to come right back down, folks. We are leaking mortgage vol. We're leaking treasury vol. It's that vol that's adding pressure, keeping the rate high. Folks, we're going to get below 6, in my view, fairly soon in mortgage rates. It's going to be a disaster for the enemies of us. I looked at Rocket and Bitcoin is entangled. You think I care about Google? Okay. I think Zillow, it was crazy what they did to the yesterdays. I'm an absorber. I'm not advising anyone to do anything. I'm buying that story. They're not Zillow. Amazon said they're going into a carbonic space. And then Garcia won a felon, in my opinion, the other one, a non-felon. He was convicted, I think, to death. That didn't put Carbon under because they do a lot of stuff. Amazon is 15% or so from the dot-com breakout. What happens when you fail the price structure of five years ago? Excuse me. Is it six years ago? Five years ago. Ahem. Whatever. Oil's a commodity with massive amounts of leverage. And with a 4.6 rate, who's going to want to short oil by SOFR contract? Who's going to want to do it? People that are on their feet. The algorithms are going to do it. And what happens when they stop buying the six-month SOFR and then the nine-month SOFR? Then the 12. You start to pull down the 10-year. And that speeds up this whole process. So the leveraging up of the system is not voluntary choice to buy more tech on margin. It's the decay of your equity leaving you less of an equity cushion while your liabilities are rising. Systemically. Because that's the system. Active or active, it doesn't matter. Ahem. We're getting lower rates. We're getting higher prices. We're down, you know, we're 4.9 basis points. The two-year, three-year. I'm telling you folks. Call it a secant. Call it a section. Call it a curve. I don't care. But watch the two-year, three-year. It's a drawbridge for equity to exit cyclicals and go into sovereign. Cyclical to sovereign. Two to three. It's the same structural trade in my book. Do not allow it to happen and be, oh, I'm going to buy these great tech stocks like SMCIM, good discount. Like Corwi. That's trading, that's trading at 10 times the spread of an investment grade. Let's put this up on the next. Let's put this up on the next. No, not on the next. I'm going to put it for everyone because it's only a curve. Okay. Two, number two, T03, down to 4.9 basis points. Oh, let's also throw up, let's throw up an oil chart with that. Folks, what did oil do after the news? It didn't go up. 55.69. Not today. Not today, today, today. Okay. That's it. What did oil do on the news? Did it go up? I don't think so. I'm going to put these up. Okay. I'm going to post it and then we're going to swing it to you. Folks, I am so excited to be with you and discuss this stuff. I got to leave in a few minutes to go to the doctor. And today we're going to do an afternoon spaces. I'm supposed to go to make sure that the environmental guys can drill some holes to this property to make sure that it will pass the building department's environmental to this building. It's going to be going up in Howard Beach, which is right near Idlewild, which used to be the name of JFK. And it's from my father's final days. Whenever he talked about flying to JFK, he would always say Idlewild. My dad was a navigator in the Air Force. They wanted him to be a pilot. And he wanted to be a navigator. It's in the family. I like being the navigator. I don't being the fighter pilot. I don't want to be the trainer. I want to be the advisor. I want to highlight risks that you're not hearing anywhere. I'm shocked. Four years. Nobody is highlighting risks. They just want opium. They just want opium. We're 4.6. How do you not sell oil at 4.6? You think that OPEC can absorb the supply that's going to come onto the system? This lower rate is going to drive down cyclicals eventually. What's that going to do? It's going to cause deleveraging in the system, and that money's coming back from overseas. And as the dollar goes up and accelerates, folks, we're in the worst possible world. For people that are short dollar volatility. Well, I shouldn't say that. Let me say that again. People short dollar skew. Because dollar volatility will still contain until it's 105. It can stay contained until 110 on the DXY. But then you'll start to see lifting of it as they have to buy the dollar, in common or short. People funding in dollars are insane. Aiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiyaiy But on a personal level, he was so nice and funny and chubby. He grew up right over here on Arthur Avenue in the Bronx, not far from the little Italy of the Bronx. His father was so great, so warm. So crazy. So crazy. But think about the Princess Bride. Think about a drawbridge trapping all of the prepayments, the little gamb- the gambolist, riskless the gambolist, a mortgage prepay, a duration annihilation, a vega annihilation, a systemic vega decay, it just evaporates when you have a PSYCHOLOGICAL SHIFT of people saying, I don't want any of this clothing-grade stuff. And then you go 200 base points and parts at the next gut, down to 3 and 3-8, and people saying, you know what, I'm going to take a shot, I'm going to take a shot, I'm going to take a shot, and just get an adjustable. You are depriving the system of this vega, it's cartilage, it's cushion, and that is the removal of the friction, it's going to allow the shear stress to develop, and that's going to cause bonds to pull Bitcoin into hell. Bonds going up in price, the entanglement of the ZROZ and the BCC, it's powerful, folks. You can see it, I've done the charts. Let's see if we can do a quick one before I gotta go. Uh-oh, 5562 on oil. Let's get that exact daily number. We don't have the daily quote, we just have the intraday. Anyway, we're 50 cents from an intraday loan, and they're telling you the short bonds, basically. They're making you think that shorting bonds makes sense. Recently saved. Yeah, we're going to put this up on the next, okay. 50 cents to oil hell. 50 cents to oil hell. And they're telling you, don't worry about the record amounts of oil on the ocean, record amounts of production. Oh, wow, we've got to get rid of Cash Patel and Don Bongino. 50 cents to a five-year intraday loan in oil. Where's your bonds now? How are you going to keep inflation up? How are you going to keep inflation up with oil breaking down and the 4.6 rate? You're going to have people coming into the curve. We've got all this data out today, we've got all this data out. What's going to happen to the move index? What's going to happen to bond volatility? I want to know. What's going to happen to bond volatility? When we got two unemployment pictures out, we got equities off. We're back at, actually, on a percentage basis. Let's check. Natural gas, under four. That's a pretty quick visit to over five. So, what are they doing right now? They're talking about assuming that the tariffs get undone. These people are crazy. Yeah, so the S&P is down 12 basis points less than the NASDAQ 100. Okay. Folks, let me do a quick chart for you. Okay, ZROZ divided by Bitcoin. We've got to multiply it by a big number. 100,000 times 100,000. Let's throw another 10. Okay. Let's do a, oh, so we're in a golden cross. Oh, you know what? I didn't do enough. Sorry. We'll do it one more time for you. ZROZ divided by BTC times one, two, three, four times, because they calculate Bitcoin in market cap for the trillion, so you've got to multiply this fraction by an enormous amount. One, two, three. Okay. Okay, we can do that. Okay. So. Okay, now let's do the weekly. Okay, here we go. We've got to put these up in the net. These are only for you folks. These are for subscribers. I don't have time to deal with people who don't invest their time to understand what we're talking about. Okay. The worst year for Coups of 18. We're 5-5-5-1. We'll see. We'll see. We have been able to get that down. What do you mean, we? The U.S. production has been going up. David Pegg has to go in there and lie about everything. He's got the worst case of Trump's Arrangement Syndrome. Okay. So, when the dollar starts going up, folks, you get equities down when the dollar's up. I mean, you get equities down when the euro's up and the dollar's down. What's going to happen when the dollar goes up? Crazy. Anyway, I am so delighted I have you folks because we are going to be an army of people expressing the truth about price and stop letting Main Street, excuse me, Institutional Wall Street, and it's a cottage industry, the Bitcoiners. They're just trying to, I mean, in my opinion, they're just trying to take their money. I think a lot of these people are paid. I think there's ads that it's all about the whales. I call it hashtag whale exit, W-H-L-E-X-E-I-T. They're just trying to have a mid-day there. I can't think of anything else. And then people looking at silver. Yes, we talked about money going from the Bitcoin pit to the silver pit. But that ain't going to last when oil's going to bring gold down. So there's plenty of money to make. You know, we had a 57 ball yesterday in silver, silver ball, I think. Let me see. Where is that? Where am I? Class A, next class asset. Oh, here it is. Nope. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay, so we're just going to do a weekly. Okay. Okay. And then let's do a monthly because this is totally out of control. Okay. So, I'm going to put this off. And we have you in mind, ducks, when we're doing this, because you are so nimble. You can jump from pit to pit, currency to crypto. And now we're going to go, I won't say credit, but duration, but kinetic duration, mortgages. Okay. So let's, we'll just swing sideways and we'll swing it up. Okay. Okay, so you can see now we've got the monthly. We're at the highest ever. You know, we had a little spike, but the highest ever silver volatility to bitcoin volatility. That's participation. We have it done. And then we also have the ZROZ divided by bitcoin. So we're about to make, you know, we got a little more, we're above the 50-week moving average. Yes, so I'll just mention that in a moment, above the dollar volatility. But you can see that we are, for the first time ever, maybe, I don't know, ZROZ divided by bitcoin is at its 50-day moving average. Excuse me, 50-week moving average. So that's over the 200-day moving average. That's already in the golden cross. When you see yourself at a chart that's in the weeklies, you're already there. We had a 5866 ZROZ denominated. Now, as you all know, I'm a big fan of NBB. So let's do a quick... So someone said... So I don't, I mean... Our currency haul is very low. I don't know if we have it over here. Let me see if they have something. I don't know if they have... Let's see. I don't know. If someone has a quote symbol for dollar volatility, please send it up for trade view. For trade view. I don't know. I can't seem to locate one. It's a very low number. I cannot find it. Let's see. No, I can't find one. I'll see if I can find one. It's not that meaningful a number. It's just so suppressed. When you're in the middle of the... You're just under the 5200. You're just under the 50-week. You're in the middle of the monthly. Everyone has their view that it's not going anywhere. Rather, you have an equilibrium between people who think it's not going anywhere. People think it's going low. People think it's going higher. But it's so low, it doesn't give you a lot of signals. The skew of the dollar, you know, it's been pitching up, and that's an institutional position wanting to get longer because they're worried about a much bigger move higher. So, sorry for that lack of an adequate response. But we'll look to see if we get it. Opportunity. Opportunity. So, someone asked if it's a threat or an opportunity. It's an opportunity in oil because what does that mean about rates? What does that mean about the compression of all... the squeezing of the juice out of mortgages and banks and cyclicals into a beta? Very exciting. But we've got to watch all these things that seem inconsequential, unimportant, irrelevant. We've got to watch the tension between different prices. We've got upgrades in NVIDIA. They're trading. They're so excited. They're so excited to be able to buy NVIDIA at a discount. Okay. I don't see SMH holding $100 and it's $350 or so. But it's super cyclical and they're pretending like it's not. They pretend like this AI thing, this unlimited capital, correlates at $800 off approximately. That isn't even rated. That's almost junk. Excuse me. That's almost default to get junk. That's way past junk. Wait. The two-year is $350.04. Yes, it was lower today. But it's only going to suck the life. We're $55.52. Folks, folks, we're $55.52. It should be a chyron, a scroll right across the top. We've cured the energy crisis. No, they won't do that. Because they may get you to buy bonds, take out tax breaks on mortgage rates, and lose the midterms. Aye yi yi yi yi yi yi. So crazy. $55.47. Okay. What is oil reacting to? Oil is reacting to the data. That's been reported. That's $0.35 to go. Cents to go. Okay. That's up. That's up. Natural gas. That's beautiful. We're only at 20% for the year. Trump came in. It was up 150%. Because Biden made sure energy prices were high. He eliminated the additional permitting of natural gas. We were just over five. And they would say, oh, no, widowmaker, widowmaker. We were at $5.50, $5.49. $5.96. All right. All right. Anybody else? I just focused on the navigator. I get the call time. I highlight the risks on the side of the road. I look at the maps. I watch everything. I can't do everything. I can't have the perspective of being in the pit and then watching over the horizon. I am overwatch. I'm not telling you what to do. I'm telling you what I'm doing. I'm telling you what I'm looking at. Okay. And when you start to see the NASDAQ down 10%, of which 5% of it is more than the S&P and Bitcoin's down and going lower, you're going to say, well, there's something to this. I recommend you give this as a gift to someone who's hitting you up for cash. Let them learn. But you have to advocate. You have to understand. You would rather have me talking to someone than be talking to myself. I know it. What does that mean? I'm 250 from 20K. Okay. There are 112 people subscribed. When it's 250, of course they're going to amplify it because they're going to make it big. And they'll take the 25K and the 50K, and then more and more people will take interviews. Adults. Michael Cale says, oh, I'm on your, you know, we think the same. We don't. He's a nice guy. Smart about something. He does not have a mechanical engine. He's another one of these people that's using intuition. I do not use intuition. I measure things under the surface. Cross-asset, inter-derivative. It's all model-driven, all mechanical. I have no emotion about it. I'm an emotional person. I have no emotion about marketing. And that's different. Okay. How are you buying the tax docs when you can get a guaranteed 5%? I mean, literally. You're a pension and insurance company. You're buying these scripts. You guarantee five plus percent, and then you take your, you take your, you take your barbell risk and all this stuff. When you start getting a bid in ZROZ, and mortgages, and we don't know the pension, oh, I want to make you an MBB, I want to make an MBB, cross-asset or ten. MBB divided by BPC. Why can't I fucking try it if I can multiply my ability? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. And then tie it. That's one, two, seven, and then one, two, three. Okay. Okay, let's go to the daily. Oh, yes. Look at this chart. Much different. Much different. Okay. Okay, look at this. Look at this, baby. Ice, ice, baby. We're about to go back to the beginning of last year. Okay. Let's set these up, and then this will be extra for that. Unless we get one quick question. Okay. This is MBB denominated, MBB denominated in, not for everyone, but for you. Post, and then, MBB denominated this way. Post, it's not, I'm trying to get you to short this one. It's not, I'm going to get you to try to buy MBB. I'm telling you what's happening to the flow of the capital. Institutionally large size of this $100 trillion of combined gold and stock equity. And you throw in housing, it's $125 trillion. And you guys pay Chicago Bank with their political thing. You have people saying, oh, they can make Trump buy Bitcoin, and that's going to do anything. Give me a break. Give me a break. Anyway, so we're watching the flows, and we're watching the vacuum. They're literally trying to steepen the volatility curve by cutting enough to make sure two-year no-fall doesn't rise, and then cause a vacuum and siphon the ball back from the bottom. You know something? I'm going to do a chart. I'm going to do a chart. You know, we're going to do, this one's going to be beautiful. Watch this. VX, no, no. This is going down faster. We're going to do VX, TLT, divided by MOVE. Because MOVE is only 20% TLT, and it's 80% everything else. Let's multiply it. Let's do it the other way. MOVE divided by VX, TLT times 10. I think that's enough. Okay. Let's do it daily. That's too much. Let's do it monthly also. Okay, so what we just did is we said we're trying to show that bond volatility is declining relative to all volatility. Okay? We're all trying to do volatility. And why are we saying that? I think that should be our post-move also. That's because we're having too much policy interference. It's all working. It's become less effective. Take a look. They cut rates. This is the fifth sequential day that the NASDAQ is accelerating lower versus the S&P. That's not to say today is not over. That it won't stop today and then resume at some other point. But the point I'm trying to highlight is we're seeing capital flight. NASDAQ down divided by S&P. NASDAQ divided by S&P to take the day. That's capital flight. That's outflow. That's the drawbridge going down. That's going to go into Treasury. Starts at the short end, but eventually it builds. And that squishes mortgage law. And that's why Bitcoin and Rocket are entangled. Anyway, do we have any quick, quick, quick questions? I'm going to be late. Okay. Thank you, everyone. And come back to our open spaces and we'll see you. We'll be with you tomorrow morning.