12.12.25 Morning

The speaker expresses frustration and disappointment with Austin Goolsbee, a former respected figure now seen as manipulative and harmful. Goolsbee is accused of manipulating economic factors to influence the election, keeping mortgage rates high to control outcomes. The speaker criticizes Goolsbee's actions at the Fed, warning of potential negative impacts on the economy and working class. The speaker also touches on market trends and the potential consequences of current financial policies and decisions. Welcome everyone to Friday Morning Conscriber Squad Spaces, December 12, 2025. This is an information-only space. Don't make a transaction without professional advice. I'm not your professional advisor. I had to listen to Goolsby. Sorry about the delay, but he said he was going to speak. This Goolsby, I find him reprehensible. I was his biggest supporter when the administration changed over because I thought he was always a straight shooter. Even when he was under Obama, I bet I have lost every single microscopic respect that I have for him. In this interview, first of all, he pretends like he does not know that a decline modestly in rates next year will cost the Republicans the election. He pretends like inflation roll-off from the ending of the tariffs as the incremental price is not a thing. He pretends like when the Fed made the early announcement of the redoing of the Federal Reserve Governor or President, I forget which one they did, that it wasn't political. He pretends like an election is not a thing. He pretends like owner's equivalent rent is a thing when they used to say it wasn't. And why? Because they've got a storyboard to keep rates up until the election. Set in in people's minds. Which they're thinking next spring, if they can just keep mortgage rates up, they've got control and they get rid of Trump. These people are horrible. I'm not a Republican. I do not want my supposed independent Fed putting their boot on the neck of the electorate. I do not want them making Main Street the victim of their political games. It disgusts me. I can't take it anymore. I'm so frustrated. It's unbelievable how you can take all the goodwill of being notionally neutral under Obama and now you are the worst act. You had to vote against the cut. You could have voted with a cut and then not have to articulate all these reasons. You are wretched. You are horrible. And then you go and you add 60, I mean 40 billion of QT, I mean QE, and then you say we can amplify it massively by buying up to three years, making sure nobody is going to fund it for a year. Making sure everybody funds it along the end of the curve. Making sure mortgage rates can't come down. You are sick, disturbed people. And the beauty is, it's going to blow up in your face. Because you so don't understand markets. You so don't understand mortgages. You could have hired a mortgage trader. You chose to hire Beth Hamburg, who doesn't know the other side of a T-bill. Okay? You don't know what you're doing. You're going to hurt yourself. You don't even have the NASDAQ up on a soft dollar. You've got a rising euro and the price of NASDAQ for Europeans is going down, and they are not buyers. Okay? That NASDAQ is going to leak into tech. Excuse me. That NASDAQ, that negative duration NASDAQ, was as wrong as wrong could be, 180 degrees, in my opinion, when she said she invests in long duration assets. Lady, you've got the wrong operation side. You're not a positive long duration. You are a negative long duration. You're a consumer of liquidity. You're Bitcoin 0.10. Meaning the original Bitcoin was NASDAQ or low beta. Sorry. Sorry, lady. You don't know what you're talking about. Okay. We have NASDAQ diverting money from mortgages, and they cannot keep it elevated. We have some charts done by the wonderful Kyle. Some memes. I asked him to produce a meme with Sam Altman telling the Sam Altman fables, like Ethos fables. You can see what I call the NASDAQ gable caused by Sam Altman's fable. You see that spike in October, that last earnings season. You see the oracle. You see the belief in Sam Altman's story. The market took a quarter. It's not good. Where the NASDAQ is at December 1 levels on a close, the lowest close since December 1. We got 1.6% to the 50-day moving average. But, folks, this isn't what's important. This is all the news. This is the noise, by the way, on that meme. I wanted him to pull from Time Magazine's cover that fake Empire State Building reference meme of all these people sitting on the girder. I want to replace the people's faces around the table where Ethos fables are going. And then it's ironic, the House of Seven Gables, which I went to as a child, that was a crazy day. One of my sisters got lost. She ended up coming home, but somehow the woman looking after us, the friend of my cousin, Rosalie, she lost one of the kids. That's what a crazy world. Anyway, she got that. A hundred with a kid. Anyway, the House of Seven Gables, we're going to call it the House of Seven Gables. We're going to call it the Portfolio of Seven Gables. FANG is the Portfolio of Seven Gables. Because when you say, oh, they have earnings this time, and they did it in 2000, yes, because in 2000, once the market got to 139, Greenspan said, no more liquidity for you. With Guy Powell, he's been pumping up the volume. The latest, putting in $40 billion of monthly QE, putting in $2 billion a day, 12 days ago, which is seven trading days ago. No, it's December 1. So December 1 today is, I guess, the 12th or something like that. Yeah, the 12th. So 13 days ago, which is, I guess, nine trading days, let's say, they were rolling off a billion. Now they're buying two a day. That's $3 billion a day, and they're allowed to buy three-year notes. This is craziness. And then you've got our friend Barchart saying, oh, look, SOFRs are down to 390. Folks, don't get complacent about SOFR contracts requiring a lower yield when that yield is still higher than the unsecured amounts. By the way, I'm sure you'll all notice my Lululemon of 10% today on bad news and getting rid of a CEO. And this is a reflection of XRT. This is a reflection of what people call rotation. I call innovation deflation. Okay. We are now possibly, we would have 34 basis points, NASDAQ denominated in the S&P, NASDAQ basis S&P. Wednesday we were 54, 55 yesterday. Let's see. 54, 55 yesterday. Where are those pictures? Where are those pictures? There they are. Recently saved. Okay, here we go. Yesterday we were 35 and 21. We were 56 and 34. That's 90. Where are we today? Let's check. NASDAQ. Let me check. QQQ versus. The reason we're not looking at futures is because sometimes you have futures and they were affected by a report prior to the close. Okay, so where are we? Yikes. Where is SPY? We lost it. QQQ. Yeah, we lost SPY. SPY. SPY. Oh, I don't know what that is. Okay. I don't know what's going on here, folks. Where are we? Oh, there it is. No, that's SPX. Where are you? Where are you? I cannot find you. SPY. There it is. So the SPY is down two ticks, two basis points. It's supposed to be near the Qs. Let's move it up. That's the problem with mobile devices. Sometimes it's in your pocket and it moves things around. So we have 33 plus 90. Okay, that's 123 basis points of compression with a weaker dollar. Okay. So that's like 200. Okay. Folks, we are losing the limited minuscule NASDAQ alpha basis DS&P over 17 months, with all the policy support, with all of the guidance. Okay. We're accelerating. It's slow, but it's directional. And so we had the monthly closes, which are the most important, all-time highs. Now obviously you want to repeat them. Those would be the end of the year. So they could be underneath a negative month of performance on the monthly close, which would be a yearly. But it would be the highest quarterly close in all likelihood, and the highest six-month close, highest yearly close, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So we do have the momentum in low beta, and it's our view, my view, that the market is not prepared for what's going to happen. They can't. There is too much mean reversion, quantum-driven, algo-risk modeling from the hedge fund community, from the institutional community, that's going to say, oh, there's no worries. Utilities have not done well since 1911. Okay. Healthcare staples, they were very benign after dot-com, so don't worry about them going up too much. I wouldn't buy into that benignness, and that's the tale that I want to be accumulating. I think we've never had this much liquidity. We are $139. You know, let's just double-check one thing. GDP in 2000 was around 10. Let's see, GDP 2000. Oh, they just said Cisco hit an all-time high. Yeah, but not in gold, not in dollars. I mean, not in GDP. GDP 20,000. Ten trillion, yeah. So you had 10,025,000,000 times 139,000,000. So 1,025,000,000 times 10,000,000,000. Oops. Times 1.39. So you had a $14.25 trillion S&P. Okay. You had the QQQ, six trillion. Okay. You had four trillion of equity in excess of the economy. What do we have today? We have 40 trillion. We have 40 trillion equity in excess of one times GDP. 40 trillion, four trillion. Hmm, let's see. Is that a decimal? That's a decimal. Do we have a banking system that is sclerotic with the ability of the big boys, the big banks, to hold back the liquidity? From the working class and destabilize their net income statements, their disposable income? Is Austin Goolsbee, the formerly straight shooter at the Fed, trying to help working class or trying to hurt working class? I don't think it's the former anymore. They want to make sure you can't refinance. They want to make sure it's not economic. They want to make sure rates are elevated. And these suckers, these suckers are not going to be able to do it. These suckers think that they can do the damage that they're doing, and they could manage the lockdown of mortgage rates towards affordability by making sure neither one of the rates were attractive enough. Neither the adjustable, neither the fixed, because if either one of those goes into affordability, it will annihilate the other because it will make people realize. It will make them realize that, you know what, we can actually join the party. So, I'm disgusted. I cannot stop throwing up to give up Austin Goolsbee, how horrible he's become, so anti-human. We'll get rates down a little before the election, and then they'll really come down after. Yeah, after you take over and demand massive spending for your crazy lunatic ideas. Divert money. Extort the president who's trying to protect the budget. If you look at the Atlanta Fed, there was an interesting read in there yesterday. In fact, did they put it up in the nest? I might not have, but I'm going to put it up in the nest right now. Okay, I don't know about you folks, but the singing in my house is way too loud, and it's got to stop. Okay, that was just posted, and now we'll swing it up into the nest. Oh my gosh, I really want to knock on the door and stop the noise, but only I can hear it, not you, I guess. Okay, so we have, let me read it. GDP now upgraded third quarter 2025 to 3.6 from the weekly 0.35. There have been decreases in third quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third quarter real government expenditures. So that fell to 3 and 1.7, to 2.3 and 1.6. And that was more than offset by the contribution of net exports to second quarter real GDP growth from an 86.86 to 1.01. 15 basis points. That's what happens when you put on a tariff, and that's what happens when we produce goods more locally, and that's what happens when your deficit is less, and you don't need to have it funded by goods coming in. So, yikesies for haters. Yikesies for haters. Okay. We must watch volatility. We must watch cross-asset behavior, NASDAQ with respect to the S&P. We've had no movement on that in a meaningful way over the last almost 18 months, 17 months, 17 months plus. And that's with a reduction of 1. Actually, now I can say not a $1 trillion reduction in roll-off. How about saying an increase of $1.5 trillion annualized in treasury? You're talking about, let's see, $1.5 trillion to $6 billion a day more buying of treasuries. And you wonder why the curve's getting a little steepening, but I don't think it's going to last very long. You know, the euro, they're a disaster. We're up to $4.194 on the 10-year, and that's because they want to make sure that mortgage rates don't refight. These people are sick. They're sick. Let a little contagion go into SOFR contracts. Let's help Main Street, not Wall Street. These people are very, very disturbed. All right. Let's see. So we have 36 basis points in futures plus 90. That's 126. Later today we'll post in spaces NASDAQ divided by the S&P with respect to the Genesis period. 11-21-08, and we'll also do it for our PIN-TWEET period range, which was we're out on July 17th calling for capital migration out of NASDAQ into low beta. We had no expansion other than a de minimis 2% over that entire nearly 18-month period, despite what is now $6 billion a day more Treasury money. Excuse me, and a reduction of the policy rate by 175 basis points, and this is where all the money is. The lower rate is going to cause carrier buildup. It will drag mortgage rates down. It's really very exciting. It's really very exciting. Let's take a look at some... Excuse me, folks. This is just an analogy, so I'm taking them daily now. So we have Bitcoin volatility at very precarious levels. Oh, crude oil, what do you know? What do you know? We are raining and seizing ships, and yet... What is the low? $57.15. So it looks like a cup and a handle to me. It looks like a breakdown in oil. It looks like a $49.99 before you can say no. Yikes, these. Yikes, yikes, yikes. So Bitcoin vol, very weak, 43.33. We were as low as 53.04 this morning when I tweeted. Do you really want to go into the 39s? 38.2, folks. There's a 2% daily move. We posted for the first time today because we've got the crossover. We got the crossover... What day is it? We got the crossover on Wednesday, and then yesterday was the first... if it was the first confirmation. So you did have a bull hammer of NASDAQ vol, of silver vol versus a Bitcoin vol. But overnight, I put it out there, and now we have the widening 50 to 200 period of day moving average of NASDAQ, excuse me, S&P vol with respect... excuse me, silver vol with respect to Bitcoin vol. And that means the kids are moving. The kids are moving. Okay, we've got to try to stay on a few more minutes till we open. Let's see some of these charts that folks... What we're trying to say is we want to find out where the kids are playing. We want to find out where the zero D to E guys are going, and if they are powerful enough to leverage some of the other structure. And as you have Bitcoin volatility deteriorate with respect to silver volatility, you're just going to lose more participants, more liquidity. And then the system, which is smaller in vol, is going to crush Bitcoin vol and just crush Bitcoin. And this is the organic nature of how you take Bitcoin down your first decimal. Because you all know when you take out 86, 88 and 86, and then the 80,500 is a recent low, and then you take out the 74 where Saylor has his coins, and you take out the 63, which is half of the coin. As you take those out, whales will start blinking. Other things are going up faster. It's time to take their chips off the table. I remember listening to our friend Grant Cardone once on the weekend, and he goes, who the hell would sell 10 billion a coin on the weekend? You know, I mean, that's... You got people giving up the collaboration. We have Gary Friedman, the very interesting chairman of RH. And there have been multiple rounds of price negotiations and increases. I'd say it's going to be predictably unpredictable. I think, well, we've all had to navigate, deal with, and have initial changes. Like, you know, who knows? There could be a whole new round of tariffs. I mean, the, you know, Supreme Court could say, hey, this is illegal. And then all of a sudden, it's going to be dead. Here's the news. These things happen. These things happen. These things happen. This changes. Well, that's about as bad as it ever has been for me. That was rambling. That was rambling. So now it's up to 6% on a downgrade of earnings. What's that telling you? Broadcom had an upgrade of earnings, and they're down. That is a transdivision. That's our transformation. It's only accelerating. Because they try to make, in my opinion, they try to make you think that the economy, okay, is not cyclical, and that you can own cyclical stocks and there'll be growth. And that's not real. All right. What else do we got? Did anybody want to come up and offer any insights or thoughts? Instead of leaving me hanging here all alone. Feel free. Okay, now we've got some live quotes. Market's open. Bitcoin right at 92. Bitcoin vol at 43 at a one-month low. Let's see what happens if we get Bitcoin vol through the one-month low, below last month's low, and then people start to try to push it lower. Let's see if we can get it into the 30s. Gold's up 141. Gold vol's up twice that. crude oil's down 12. 7% down. Oil vol is up. The NASDAQ 100 looks like it's yesterday's flows. Another quote. Okay. So, the vol until it's all open up again. Okay. Housing is up a little. Utilities, up a teeny. Banks are up a little on the curve. Okay. Let's see. Okay, let's see. What else are we looking at? Okay. Gasoline going down. What a shock. Got my five below. It's now five above. We got 410 natural gas, but you have to remember, last year at this time, it was flying. And because Biden did the ban on additional permitting, or the pause, excuse me. So, we are now 26% up versus last year on natural gas. That's down from 150. Okay. Okay. So, you've got homebuilders up. You've got fangs down. You've got semis down. The euro's flattish. Let's take a little look at SMH. SMH is essentially just above the December 4th gap. Okay. Broadcom is down 8% now. That could be probably an exhaustion gap. I'm in a breakaway gap, meaning that it will just keep on running lower. It could fill, but it's not going to be benign. Got a nice long wick for you traders out there. It's a Friday. You get any weaker, you get them engulfing weak. And we're not far away from undoing last quarter's earnings. Okay. UnitedHealthcare, you all know. We thought that the Biden administration was trying to bankrupt them so they could go to single-payer, and the current administration needs them to reduce the influence of the Affordable Care Act. And it's the hottest. It's the highest close since the October 90s. And it's a weekly. And you're on the verge of getting a bullish wick, hammer, whatever you want to call it. Last week's high was 34.41, which is, we just took it up, 34.48. Okay. So you just took up last week's high in UnitedHealth. And what does that mean about healthcare? You know my view. In sectors, you need the biggest and the fastest. So I like the biggest and the fastest. In healthcare, you have Lilly as the biggest. United dropped a ton of market cap with all the issues. So IBM is going to be an excellent short. Goldman will be a great short. I do think Catechol is going to be a good short, but not yet, because we'll need dollar strength and global weakness. So what we're doing here is going to be great. What's going on around the world is going to be the best. All right. Let's take another look. Let's get some Bush v. Gore. Let's see. Yeah, so utility staples in healthcare are up. Bitcoin, Bitcoin volatility is down. Let's see. So the NASDAQ 100 is down 31 basis points more. That's 133 basis points more. That's 123 basis points. We're on the verge. In fact, let's do a quick one. Let's do a quick basis trade read on, excuse me, Let's try to keep the wave close. Perfect. Let's see. Let's see if we can do an EQES. EQ. Oops. Let's go futures. And Q. What am I doing? And Q. Oops. Divided by EQ. I mean ES. What am I doing? ES. Let's just say times 100. Times 100. Times what? Just to get some decimal for granularity. Okay. I don't think we need that 100. Let's try it again. And Q divided by EQ. Not EQ, ES. Okay. Let's actually divide it. And Q divided by ES divided by 1000. Okay. Oh, no. We need more. We need more decimals. Well, let's just keep that. Let's do weekly. It's not working. We have to do with EQES. Let's see. Have to wait a few more minutes to get that populated. Let me just check. Okay. What do we have? Sam almost starting a charm event according to Kramer. It's not working anymore. The house is seven tables. Okay. We have 30 basis points right now. Oh, you know what? Let me do NDX versus SDX. Let's try that. Let's try NDX versus SDX. NDX versus SDX. Okay, let's see. That's giving us enough detail. Yeah, we need to multiply that by 100. Let's get rid of that. NDX divided by SDX. I'm sorry. We've got some issues. Okay. So, we are now, okay, we are now 4.31, 4.41 divided by 367. 4.41 divided by 367.84, 367.84. So, now we have a quarter percent adjusted for dividends before we can say we don't just have underperformance. We have cross under. We can go cross under and that is what we had with Bitcoin divided by Bitcoin vol. We had 18 days in advance. When you go cross under, when the NASDAQ ends up underperforming the S&P with all this spinning, with all this dollar suppression, you just, it's going to accelerate. You just, you know, the algos are just going to munch, munch, munch, munch, munch. They're just going to sell the calls on the NASDAQ and they're going to sell the calls on the S&P and they're going to end up driving up NASDAQ all and they're going to end up keeping VIX slow and people who are taking VIX as their signal are going to get wiped out. We have a great trigger in the crude not calling out, but articulated that a portfolio saving note observation was the elevation of VIX. Okay. And that triggered an unwinding of preservation. Well, that's not going to be a valuable signal anymore. That is pure alpha that I'm offering you in my view. Pure alpha that you must get ready to disregard the VIX. You cannot use VIX as your guardrail. You have to shift to VIXN as your guardrail. That, if you get VIXN divided by euro vol, that would be a spike, or by dollar vol. Because there's a lot of dollar volatility compression ahead before we break up higher. It's all policy dollar suppression. We're running out of room in 50 basis points. We're three and five eighths. But it's so exciting to be able to disabuse. Did I put that up? Oh, let me, let me. Ooh, we're even worse. Let's do that again. Three, six, seven, eight, four. Three, six, seven, eight, four. Three. Seven, six, point, eight, four. Is that right? Three. Where is that? Oh, wrong one. This one. Okay. Three, seven, six, eight, four. So it's seven, eight, four. Seven, eight, four, three, three, five. Seven, eight, four, three, three, five, sorry. Seven, seven, four, divided by three, seven. Aye, aye, aye, aye, aye, aye, aye, aye. Three, two, five, seven, eight, four, three, three, five. Seven, eight, four, three, three, five. Three, three, point, oops. Three, point, three, five. Okay. So I'm going to put those, I'm going to put those two things up there. Let's put in a subscriber. Click, oh, there it is. Four subscribers. We don't want to put too much of this information into people that are casual followers. It will be too dangerous, in my opinion. Maybe not dangerous, but it's important to be able to monitor this stuff. Okay. So, 1.2 percent. 1.2 percent. Minus percent. Minus, that looks like 120 basis points. 120 basis points. Minus 90 basis points of dividends. Because there's about a 50 basis points differential. Equals, equals less, less than, okay. Hello. Enough of the singing. You can sing anywhere in the apartment. Or in the house. There are three floors. And a captain's roof. But no singers are in the show. So many basis points. What's that? One third of a percent. Okay. So, folks, we are, we're getting closer. Despite all of the policy support, what's happening is, even with dollar weakness, they're not able to hold it together. So. Okay. One of my interviews with one of the interns is going to be online. Okay. So, let's see. 363. Okay. So you got a little bit of a bounce on the NASDAQ. We're 44 to 38. Okay. So, let's see. Okay, let's see. Okay, S&P. Okay, so what's happened is the S&P has fallen to only a 22 basis point advantage over the decline of the NASDAQ. So at NASDAQ strength, it's S&P catching down. And we are getting a little lift in the NASDAQ vol versus the S&P vol. And that's the liquidity failure. We're up to 115.79. Let's see. That said you went updated. Oh, geez, I hate when that happens. Okay. Look at this. The world is about to blow away. Okay, let's post this up here. Oops. Okay. S&P. Getting ready for a record price. Okay, so what is this? Oh, I didn't put that up in the nest. Oh, you put it up in the nest. Okay, back to the nest. And then let's get this other one. Okay, here it is. Oh, stupid ads. Let's see if I can get that without the ads. Okay. Okay, let's do a monthly. Shows it all time. Okay, so we have an all-time monthly high. And let's go for the weekly. All-time weekly high. Let's see if it is a daily. Okay, so we're approaching. Okay. I got to take this, folks. Hello? This is Tom, cardiology clinic. This is Mr. David Levinson. Yes, yes. Hi, so we see you have an appointment with us on Tuesday coming, December 16 at 1020. Will you be coming to get with us? Yes, I will. Okay, I'll confirm that appointment. Okay, thank you. Do we need to do anything the day before? No, nothing at all. Just come over to the clinic on 137th Street, 34th. Okay, great. Thank you. Thanks. Okay, we're back. Got to make sure I don't miss this appointment. December. Yep, it's there. Let me put a reminder for a warning alert. Are you kidding me? How am I not going to get alert? Okay. All right, so let's put these charts up and then we're going to be on our way. This is exciting. And every timeframe at or through record cross-volatility structure, expansion structure, and both. We're doing it in these, these are low liquidity, but they are a framework for math amount, or math, mathematical modeling. Like in VXN, V-O-V-V-X-N divided by V-I-X. The most important cross data signal globally. Okay, so we're posting that and we're going to send, oh boy. Oh boy. Anyway, I'll send that up. I'll post it. It wouldn't take, sometimes if it's too long, it won't take. Anyway, so the reason why we're focused on this Bitcoin silver or lower liquid things, which most people would never even consider trading in silver or Bitcoin because they're so small at two trillion dollars. But it's a mathematical measurement. It's showing that the information of the price is conserved in its volatility. It's showing that when you have conserved, constrained volatility, it's going to be limited on the price because of the virtual supply. Now, volatility has two tails. So low volatility doesn't mean something will go up after or that it will go down after. And the example is, we think that Bitcoin volatility, if it goes lower, will mean lower Bitcoin. And Nasdaq volatility, as it goes lower in our time frame, will mean lower Nasdaq prices. But we think that lower volatility in staples, healthcare utilities, mortgages, and treasuries will accommodate more movements higher in their price. So you can't take the signal that low volatility means low price. Low volatility means high price. You can't make that. It's a binary. But you have to take your signal from other things. More like a continuation. So with all that, thanks for joining us for the hour. And I'm going to take care of some things. And we'll be back Monday through Friday. I may have to do Tuesday early because I have an appointment. But with all that said, thanks for joining us. And have a wonderful day. And always watch Price. Don't listen to stories as much as Price. Blend everything together.