The Crisis: A Warning

The episode called "The Crisis, A Warning" discusses the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on the misconception that the Chinese word for crisis signifies both danger and opportunity. However, it actually means danger and an incipient moment of change. The episode also shares personal experiences and reflections on the pandemic, including the interconnectedness and fragility of our systems, the importance of preparedness, and the initial response to the virus. It highlights the need for quick action and integration of information in times of crisis. Welcome to Phase Shift. I am Bruce Weber. This episode is called The Crisis, A Warning, and is part one of a series of episodes about the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Victor Mayer is a professor of Chinese language and literature at the University of Pennsylvania. In an article called Danger plus Opportunity Does Not Equal Crisis, Dr. Mayer states, quote, there is a widespread public misperception, particularly among the new age sector, that the Chinese word for crisis is composed of elements that signify danger and opportunity. While it is true that wēi jī does indeed mean crisis, and that the way syllable of wēi jī does convey the notion of danger, the g syllable of wēi jī most definitely does not signify opportunity. The g of wēi jī, in fact, means something like incipient moment, a crucial point when something begins or changes. Thus, a wēi jī is indeed a genuine crisis, a dangerous moment, a time when things start to go awry. A wēi jī indicates a perilous situation when one should be especially wary. It is not a juncture when one goes looking for advantages and benefits. In a crisis, one wants above all to save one's skin and neck, end quote. I will tell you a story about a global crisis, one which continues to unfold. In early 2020, a novel virus spread throughout the world, causing a disease called COVID-19, short for coronavirus disease 2019. You can find many facts as well as speculations about COVID-19 on the web. In this story, I will focus on my experiences. I may not remember the details clearly or accurately. This is the nature of memory. Indeed, most memories are like stories we tell ourselves rather than recordings of the past. Perhaps writing this will help me remember the events more clearly and help me process what happened. I recently learned the word liminal, which means relating to or at a transition or boundary between two states or stages. Is 2020 a liminal time? If we're in a transition, where are we transitioning to? The old normal was broken. What will replace it? During the 1990s, many people were concerned about the year 2000 problem, also called the Y2K bug. Many computer systems store dates using two digits for the year, and date comparisons would fail when the year 2000 rolled around. This was a real problem, which turned out to have little impact because of all of the work that was done to fix it. In 1999, I recall a local market which couldn't process credit cards for several days. Their point of sale software had the Y2K bug. The Y2K bug got me thinking about how interconnected and fragile our systems are. For example, the loss of the power grid, if not restored fairly quickly, would lead to other systems failing. Without power, gas stations cannot pump fuel. Without fuel, trucks cannot deliver food. Most of our systems are just in time. Grocery stores have only a few days of food on hand. This inspired me to learn about preparedness. I was never a very thorough prepper, but I learned a fair amount about the topic. Preppers think about potential disasters and their impacts. Planning for a pandemic is nothing new in the preparedness community. I enjoy watching YouTube. I like the videos which Styxhexenhammer666 produces. His real name is Tarl Warwick. In January 2020, Styx started talking about the Wuhan coronavirus, as it was called then, and I learned about the John Hopkins website showing the number of cases and deaths in each country. When the virus spread outside the Hubei province, Styx warned that this may become a pandemic. When it began spreading to other countries, Styx warned that people might panic when it reached their city and that the panic could be worse than the virus itself. Styx introduced me to Dr. John Campbell, a retired nurse and nurse educator. Dr. Campbell was also tracking the coronavirus and was concerned that it may become a pandemic. In his YouTube videos, Dr. Campbell presented evidence-based information linking to studies in established scientific journals. He included information on how to prevent the spread of the virus and avoid getting sick. Commenting on Dr. Campbell's hand-washing video, one person wrote that in 1980 we were promised flying cars and in 2020 we learned how to wash our hands. The worldwide response to COVID-19 was ineffective. Early on, China lied about the severity of the virus and how it was spreading. The World Health Organization, WHO, did not declare COVID-19 to be a pandemic until March 11. The WHO may have acted with political motivations. Similarly, in the United States, the response to COVID-19 was politicized. In late January, I began sending emails to friends and family warning about COVID-19. In mid-February, I suggested that a pandemic was possible. By the end of February, the disease was spreading rapidly in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, and there seemed to be cases in new countries each day. On February 26, I awoke. I was the president of Birmingham Unitarian Church, BUC, at the time, and I realized that I had been warning friends and family, but not the BUC Board of Trustees. The board's governance document states, quote, the board will govern with policies that emphasize future rather than past or present vision and proactivity rather than reactivity, end quote. I sent an email to the board stating my concerns and encouraging discussion about COVID-19. On March 2, I created risk mitigation documents in our shared workspace. On March 4, I became frustrated with a lack of response from the board. I sent an email saying, quote, it's difficult, but try to think exponentially about this. Things may change at a faster rate than they are changing now. Please see the attached chart showing the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of China, end quote. This stimulated a flurry of discussion, and the board agreed to discuss COVID-19 at a special meeting on March 9. The situation developed rapidly, and on March 14, the church building was closed. We began having worship services online. This timeline shows two things, how quickly changes can occur when exponential growth is involved, and how challenging it can be to integrate new information. Although I was following the spread of COVID-19 and had studied preparedness, I was late realizing my responsibility to my church. I did not integrate my knowledge fully and take action soon enough. And once I had initiated the discussion, it took a while for the board members to integrate the information and cohere as a group. You've been listening to Phase Shift, a podcast about the unusual times we live in and the possibilities for the future. This episode also appears as an article on my website, bruceweber.us. Until next time, be well.